7月23日,美国《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志发表了一篇文章,题目是How Trump is Repelling Foreign Investment(川普如何排斥外资)。于是查了一下美国官方提供的数据,发现好像不是这么回事啊。以下数据来源是美国经济分析局(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis),原数据在
(补充:感谢HCC兄的讨论,俺最终找到了《外交事务》原始数据的来源:https://www.bea.gov/international/di1fdibal.htm? 。作为外交政策杂志,他们引用的是Financial Transaction Table,但这是外资金融总交易量,其中90%以上是因收购已有的美国企业而产生的。而主打经贸的Trading Economics网站是以该链接第二个表格Income Table 为准,是指美国实际收入的外资(字典里income的本意是 “a gainorrecurrent benefit usually measured in money that derives from capital or labor"),或曰“外资收益”。因此个人理解,真正的收益在后面一张表格吧。可不可以说,2017和18两年,美国是“输了面子”(金融总交易量下降)但赢了里子呢(外资收益增加)?投入美国的外资收益占外资总金融交易量的比例,这两年大大增加,2016年是33%,2017年达到了62.7%。如果是这样,这种“实而不华”,“闷声发财”的路子倒是很合俺的口味。)。
Note: * The UNCTAD Inward FDI Performance Index is Based on a Ratio of the Country's Share in Global FDI Inflows and its Share in Global GDP. ** The UNCTAD Inward FDI Potential Index is Based on 12 Economic and Structural Variables Such as GDP, Foreign Trade, FDI, Infrastructures, Energy Use, R&D, Education, Country Risk. *** Green Field Investments Are a Form of Foreign Direct Investment Where a Parent Company Starts a New Venture in a Foreign Country By Constructing New Operational Facilities From the Ground Up. **** Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Measures the Value of Additions to Fixed Assets Purchased By Business, Government and Households Less Disposals of Fixed Assets Sold Off or Scrapped.
外国对美国的投资也不会就变成了美国的Income。而FDI量的不是Income。FDI量的是外国对美国的投资。包括:foreign acquisitions of existing US-owned businesses, establishments of new foreign-owned US businesses, or expansions of existing foreign-owned US businesses。
(见 https://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/fdi/2018/pdf/fdi0718.pdf )
("Expenditures were down 32 percent from $379.7 billion (revised) in 2016 and were below the annual average of $359.9 billion for 2014-2016. ")
(以上见 https://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=62&step=1#reqid=62&step=6&isuri=1&6221=1&6220=1,2,3,4,5&6210=1&6200=65&6224=&6223=&6222=0&6230=1 )
(Column 56: Financial transactions for inward direct investment (foreign direct investment in the United States), directional basis)
7月23日,美国《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志发表了一篇文章,题目是How Trump is Repelling Foreign Investment(川普如何排斥外资)。于是查了一下美国官方提供的数据,发现好像不是这么回事啊。以下数据来源是美国经济分析局(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis),原数据在
(补充:感谢HCC兄的讨论,俺最终找到了《外交事务》原始数据的来源:https://www.bea.gov/international/di1fdibal.htm? 。作为外交政策杂志,他们引用的是Financial Transaction Table,但这是外资金融总交易量,其中90%以上是因收购已有的美国企业而产生的。而主打经贸的Trading Economics网站是以该链接第二个表格Income Table 为准,是指美国实际收入的外资(字典里income的本意是 “a gainorrecurrent benefit usually measured in money that derives from capital or labor"),或曰“外资收益”。因此个人理解,真正的收益在后面一张表格吧。可不可以说,2017和18两年,美国是“输了面子”(金融总交易量下降)但赢了里子呢(外资收益增加)?投入美国的外资收益占外资总金融交易量的比例,这两年大大增加,2016年是33%,2017年达到了62.7%。如果是这样,这种“实而不华”,“闷声发财”的路子倒是很合俺的口味。)。
Note: * The UNCTAD Inward FDI Performance Index is Based on a Ratio of the Country's Share in Global FDI Inflows and its Share in Global GDP. ** The UNCTAD Inward FDI Potential Index is Based on 12 Economic and Structural Variables Such as GDP, Foreign Trade, FDI, Infrastructures, Energy Use, R&D, Education, Country Risk. *** Green Field Investments Are a Form of Foreign Direct Investment Where a Parent Company Starts a New Venture in a Foreign Country By Constructing New Operational Facilities From the Ground Up. **** Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Measures the Value of Additions to Fixed Assets Purchased By Business, Government and Households Less Disposals of Fixed Assets Sold Off or Scrapped.