In a similar vein, I think of progressively applying the following Investment Readiness Conditions, or INVESTCONs, in the face of above average market valuations and optimistic investor behavior:
6. Stop buying
5. Reduce aggressive holdings and increase defensive holdings
4. Sell off the remaining aggressive holdings
3. Trim defensive holdings as well
2. Eliminate all holdings
1. Go short
In my view, its essentially impossible to reasonably reach the degree of certainty needed to implement INVESTCON 3, 2, or 1. Because overvaluation is never synonymous with sure to go down soon, its rarely wise to go to those extremes. I know I never have.But I have no problem thinking its time for INVESTCON 5.And if you lighten up on things that appear historically expensive and switch into things that appear safer, there may be relatively little to lose from the market continuing to grind higher for a while . . . or anyway not enough to lose sleep over.
霍华德警告投资人，投资应该开始倾向防守。
gossipgirl8 (2025-08-14 09:21:49) 评论 (0)In a similar vein, I think of progressively applying the following Investment Readiness Conditions, or INVESTCONs, in the face of above average market valuations and optimistic investor behavior:
6. Stop buying
5. Reduce aggressive holdings and increase defensive holdings
4. Sell off the remaining aggressive holdings
3. Trim defensive holdings as well
2. Eliminate all holdings
1. Go short
In my view, its essentially impossible to reasonably reach the degree of certainty needed to implement INVESTCON 3, 2, or 1. Because overvaluation is never synonymous with sure to go down soon, its rarely wise to go to those extremes. I know I never have.But I have no problem thinking its time for INVESTCON 5.And if you lighten up on things that appear historically expensive and switch into things that appear safer, there may be relatively little to lose from the market continuing to grind higher for a while . . . or anyway not enough to lose sleep over.