印度商界精英访谈：中国人有一个做法，是我们印度无法效仿的！
黑白碎片 2025年4月7日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Z5pEKL5r8c
Ruchir Sharma是一位投资者、作家、基金经理和《金融时报》专栏作家，他还是洛克菲勒国际的董事长，以及专注于新兴市场的投资公司 Breakout Capital 的创始人兼首席投资官。在2024年5月的一次采访中，他谈到了他对印度经济增长的看法、中国 80 年代经济大幅增长的原因，以及中印文化的不同所导致的思维方式和行事方式上的差异。
问
中国肯定经历过一个J曲线，就像80年代后中国经济会爆发一样。是的，是什么因素促成了这种崛起？
Ruchir Sharma
很简单，政府一直在放手，给予人们越来越多的自由，摆脱严格的控制。他们给予人们越来越多的经济自由，远远超过印度政府给予印度人的自由。
对我来说，这就是最大的矛盾之一，就像我们自称是民主国家一样。我们给予人们很多政治自由。好吧，你可以随心所欲地投票。我们没有给予人们经济自由。有太多的许可证和监管。你知道，你可以在那里投资，但你不能投资，你不能把钱带到那里。你不能这样做。作为这个国家的经济公民，我们完全被束缚着，尽管我们有很多政治自由。你可以投票。中国则相反，他们吸引了大量外国人进入他们的国家，他们邀请外国投资，并对所有领先的跨国公司说，你来中国，告诉我们怎么做。你想要什么？我们会帮你实现的。所以，你知道，我认为存在着一种人们不太了解的对比，他们的做法令人印象深刻。他们邀请外国人来，帮助他们管理公司。在投资方面，他们想去哪里就去哪里。所以，像麦当劳和可口可乐这样的公司，他们第一次来到中国，就得到了铺满红地毯的待遇，来我们国家做你想做的事。所以我们必须以不同的方式看待这个问题，呃，中国和印度的做法不同。印度在给予人民这种经济自由方面要慢得多。呃，2020年代的印度和1990年代的印度。呃，中国，在某些方面，是的，在经济上。是的，但我再次认为，唯一的区别是，中国实际上比我们做得更多。呃，在创造商业环境以促进良好发展方面。呃，你知道，就这一点而言，中国确实有铺满红地毯的待遇。对于商业来说，我认为在这个国家，甚至政府有时几乎把印度商人看作一群骗子之类的，你知道，就这一点而言，我觉得这种对调查机构可能上门调查的恐惧，以及所有那些行为，我认为这在某种程度上损害了商业信心。所以从某种程度上来说，20世纪90年代的中国和印度确实很相似。我对印度未来10到15年的增长非常乐观，但看到中国的做法后，我仍然会保持谨慎。中国做得更多，而且在这方面更加无情。比如在印度，我们仍然认为穷人需要得到大量补贴，他们需要提供大量帮助等等。或者，你知道，即使是莫迪先生，他也非常不愿意改变一些国大党的政策，比如
col，你知道比如给人们提供农场贷款，或者某种形式的政府权，也就是给人们提供就业机会，如果你找不到工作，政府就会提供。中国什么都没做，他们告诉穷人，你要么工作，要么很遗憾，我们不会以任何方式支持你。所以，他们的做法非常残酷，也正是这种残酷创造了生产力繁荣。我们没有像中国那样做。所以，这是一个非常重要的区别，就中国曾经多么残酷而言，我们仍然非常谨慎。呃，即使是这个政府，你称之为右翼政府，但从经济角度来看，我认为它更偏向中间派。它没有像中国那样，改变土地法、劳动法或其他什么。呃，我们还没有这样做。
问题：啊，好吧，也许吧。我们的政府对社会底层更有同理心。中国则没有那么强的同理心，但这迫使每个人要么逐渐淡出，要么展现出自己最好的一面，为家人赚钱。是的，我认为在印度我们永远不会看到这种情况。是的，因为我们社会的结构非常情绪化。完全正确。对。
Ruchir Sharma
是的，所以当你说中国和印度是同一回事时，我会非常谨慎。但你说得太对了。这种感觉，一个国家的社会结构非常重要，你知道中国能够做到这一点。这也是因为中国是一个非常同质的社会。我们是一个非常多元化的社会，你知道，印度一部分人的思维方式与另一部分人截然不同。我经常在印度旅行，当我从一个邦到另一个邦，当你跨越边境的那一刻，叙事就会突然改变，人们的思维方式也会改变，他们的饮食习惯也会改变。你知道，中国的文化也在改变。没有那种中国，这更像是。
在中国，无论你走到哪里都是同质的，而印度的情况则大体相似。我们非常多元化，所以，这也是为什么我们走这条路可能非常困难，而且可能永远不会发生。如果印度政府也做同样的事情，他们的选举机会就会岌岌可危。你可以反驳这一点，但我的感觉是，即使在印度，当我们这样做时，仍然有很多政府会输掉选举。所以，印度的情况要复杂得多。你做X，你认为你会得到Y。但嗯，是的，整个想法是，这是一个更加复杂的国家。事实上，中国是一个比印度更容易理解的国家。
There must have been a J curve moment
for China like China would have exploded
after the 80s Yes What were the factors
that went into that rise
Ruchir Sharma
Very simple The government kept getting out of the way
and they gave people more and more
freedom from a very tight control They
gave people more and more economic
freedom much more than in fact the
Indian government gave to to Indians And
that's for me is one of the big
contradictions like for me which is we
called ourselves a democracy We gave
people lots of political freedom Okay
you can vote the way you want to We did
not give people economic freedom There
was so much licenses regulation you know
you can invest there you can't invest
you can't take your money there you
can't do that We were completely
throttled as economic citizens of this
country even though we got lot of
political freedom You can vote China did
the opposite and they got so much
foreigners to come into their country
and they and they invited foreign
investment and said to all the leading
multinationals you come to China you
tell us how to what do you want we'll
make it work for you so it you know that
I think that there there's this contrast
that people don't quite know and the way
they did that was quite impressive they
invited foreigners to come to come and
help them manage their companies to come
and in terms of invest wherever they
wanted so all the McDonald's and Coke
and all they first arrived in China and
they got a complete red carpet that come
and do what you feel like in our country
So we have to think of it very differently uh in terms of what China
did and what India did and India was
much slower in giving its people such
economic freedom Is 2020s India 1990s
China uh in some ways yes economically
yes but again I think that the only
difference here is that China in fact
did a lot more than what what we have
done so far uh in terms of creating the
environment for business to do well uh
you know like in terms of that there was
like there was a complete red carpet for
business I think in this country even
the government sometimes I feel almost
looks at Indian businessmen somewhat as
being a you know like a bunch of crooks
or something and there's a you know like
in terms of it and I feel that this
whole fear of what the investigative
agencies can come and knock on your door
and do all that I think that hurts
business sentiment somewhat So in some
ways it's true that the China of the
1990s you can compare India you know
like is similar I feel very optimistic
about India's growth for the next 101 15
years but I will still caution having
seen what China did China did a lot more
and China was a lot more ruthless that
way in like you know like in India's for
example we still feel that the poor need
to be given a lot of subsidies they need
to give in lot of help and stuff uh or
you know like we that even Mr Modi he's
been very reluctant to change some of
the Congress policies like you know the
col uh you know for example of giving
people farm uh uh in terms of uh uh
loans uh uh or even sort of the mana
right which is uh in terms of giving
people uh employment which the government provides if you can't get
employment and stuff China did nothing
like that they told its poor people you either work or too bad we're
not going to support you in some way So
it was a very ruthless form of what they
did and that's what sort of created the
productivity boom and stuff to do We
have not done what China has done So
it's such an important distinction in
terms of how ruthless China was and here
we are still you know very cautious
about what we do Uh and even this
government you called it right-wing but
from an economic perspective I think
it's more centrist It's not done
anything to change the land or the labor
laws or something the way China did Uh
we haven't done that as yet
Question
Ah okay Perhaps it's a little more
empathetic our government towards the
lower rungs of society China wasn't as
empathetic but then that forced everyone
to either fade away Yeah or get the best
version of themselves to the forefront
and make money for their families Yes
I don't think we'll ever see that in
India though Yes Because the fabric of
our society is very emotional Absolutely
correct Right
Ruchir Sharma
Yes So therefore I'm very careful about when you say China and
India are the same thing But you're so
correct this feeling the social fabric
of a country is very important and you
know China was able to do it It's also
because China is a very homogeneous
society We are a very diverse society
and like you know that that in terms of
the way that one part of India thinks is
so different from another part of India
thinks I I travel in India a lot and I
when I go from one state to another the
moment you cross the border all of a
sudden the narrative changes how people
think changes their eating habits change
uh you know the culture changes in China
you don't have that China it's much more
sort of uh homogeneous everywhere you go
in China is a lot more similar in
India's case we're so diverse so that's
part of the reason why for you know us
to go down that path is possibly
uh very difficult and and may never
happen If an Indian government does the
same thing uh their election chances are
at risk You can argue that but my
feeling is that even in India when we do
that so many governments still lose
elections So it's India is a much more
complicated story that you do X and you
think you'll get Y But uh yeah the whole
idea is that that this is a much more
complicated country China is a in fact
that way a simpler country to understand
than India
