斯塔默为何可能需要让布莱尔回归
Why Starmer might need to bring back Blair
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-starmer-might-need-to-bring-back-blair/
BY TIM ROSS FEBRUARY 1, 2025
英国首相似乎总是在海外，一些盟友希望他能像他的前任一样，将更多外交事务委托给他人。
英国-巴西-二十国集团峰会。英国首相基尔·斯塔默的出访时间比他的任何一位前任都要长。
蒂姆·罗斯是POLITICO驻欧洲和英国的首席政治记者。他的最新著作《压倒性胜利：2024年大选内幕》于11月出版。
1997年，英国前首相托尼·布莱尔在历史性大选中获胜一年后，曾表示政府官员在他上任后做的第一件事就是没收了他的护照。
“说真的！然后他们就把剩下的时间都用来带你环游世界了，”他说。
自去年7月就任英国首相以来，基尔·斯塔默也发现自己处境非常相似。他身陷国际外交的漩涡，忙于处理英国对乌克兰的承诺，寻求重塑与欧盟的关系，并为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的回归做准备。
事实上，斯塔默上任六个月以来的出国旅行时间比他任何一位前任都要长，累计海外旅行天数达到31天。新年伊始，这一数字还在增长，斯塔默目前已准备好于周一在布鲁塞尔与欧盟领导人共进晚餐。唐宁街官员希望，很快他也能乘飞机前往华盛顿与特朗普会面。
斯塔默显然致力于外交事务，鉴于众多国际威胁正拖累英国经济，很难说他的做法是错的。但飞行里程本身也是有代价的。
从政治角度来看，首相面临着被视为缺席者的风险，而且已经有警告称，面对糟糕的民调结果，他可能会被指控“逃离”英国。对于那些想把他描绘成脱离现实的反对者来说，这无疑是一个轻而易举的打击，即使是奄奄一息的保守党也不会放过这个机会。
此外，还有机会成本。出差会占用领导人大量有限的时间，而且也很累。
此外，还要花费大量时间在英国国内接待世界各国领导人，他们会来唐宁街10号与斯塔默共进午餐，或者——就像本月早些时候法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙那样——在首相位于契克斯的官方乡间别墅共进晚餐。
但他并非没有其他工作要做。
斯塔默在7月以压倒性优势当选，承诺在保守党执政14年后重建英国。这14年里，英国经历了脱欧的动荡、两次公投、五任首相、一场疫情、一场乌克兰战争、移民激增、国家医疗服务体系（NHS）陷入困境、市场崩溃以及通货膨胀猖獗。
前首相托尼·布莱尔会被召回吗？
然而，入主唐宁街后，工党团队惊讶地发现，首相的时间竟然被外交事务占用了如此之多。当然，这部分是因为斯塔默的前幕僚长苏·格雷未能让新政府做好应对权力现实的准备。“根本没有计划，”一位政府助手说道。
但自从工党选举胜利的幕后策划者摩根·麦克斯威尼（Morgan McSweeney）于10月接替格雷以来，他为唐宁街10号注入了缺失的纪律感，并塑造了清晰的战略方向。由于斯塔默专注于日益增多的外交危机，麦克斯威尼决定大部分时间留在伦敦。他很少陪同首相出行——尽管这也是因为政府在他出国时习惯于偏离方向。
唐宁街应对这些相互竞争的压力的策略还包括为首相团队注入经验丰富的老将，尤其是在外交事务方面。例如，麦克斯威尼在上任后向前任首相征求意见时，对布莱尔的得力助手乔纳森·鲍威尔印象深刻，于是任命他为国家安全顾问。
斯塔默还提名了布莱尔时代工党大选成功的教父彼得·曼德尔森担任下一任英国驻美国大使。
然而，鉴于布莱尔时代唐宁街就已任命了如此多的人选，一个问题便凸显出来：这位前首相本人会被召回吗？令人惊讶的是，答案可能并非“永远不会”。
虽然斯塔默感受到国际责任的压力，但在下次选举前的某个时候，麦克斯威尼会希望他的老板重返竞选之路，而不是在外国机场铺满红地毯的停机坪上漫步。
一个解决方案是将更多外交事务移交给外交大臣，甚至在内阁中增设一个“第一国务卿”的职位来减轻负担。最近已有先例：在2024年大选前，
时任首相里希·苏纳克（Rishi Sunak）召回前首相戴维·卡梅伦（David Cameron）承担外交重任，以便他能够专注于竞选。
斯塔默政府中的一些人认为苏纳克的这一决定是明智之举，尤其是在选举年。（有些人甚至游说卡梅伦出任新任驻美国大使。）那么，到时候他们有可能对布莱尔采取同样的措施吗？
原因有几个：首先，这位精力充沛、71岁的前领导人可能会盖过现任首相的风头。其次，两人并不一定在所有政策要点上都意见一致。
尽管斯塔默的团队拥有丰富的布莱尔时代智慧，但麦克斯威尼并不认为这项任务是布莱尔式的。 （可以肯定地说，斯塔默在去年的选举中未能击败布莱尔1997年创纪录的多数票，因此人们心中挥之不去的嫉妒之情依然存在。）
此外，布莱尔仍然是一个极具争议的人物，尤其是在2003年促成美国前总统乔治·W·布什入侵伊拉克的过程中。让他负责外交政策简报，对工党左翼及其他地区的许多人来说，无疑是一种侮辱。
然而，卡梅伦在外交事务上的遗产——最明显的是促成了英国脱欧——也带来了痛苦的分裂。最终，对苏纳克来说，关键在于保守党在选举临近之际的糟糕处境。他需要能够专注于国内问题，以避免保守党彻底覆灭，否则，这种情况可能会发生。
斯塔默的民调数据和个人支持率已经很差，极右翼改革英国在投票意向调查中已经与工党遥遥领先。当然，民调可能不可靠，而且距离下次选举还有很长的路要走。斯塔默本人最近向《政治报》表示，他不会在2029年迫不得已的情况下宣布投票结果。
工党的前景需要达到真正的危机点，布莱尔才会被邀请回来。但随着选举临近，认为斯塔默的团队永远不会绝望到要求工党最成功的领导人最后一次交出护照的想法是愚蠢的。
Why Starmer might need to bring back Blair
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-starmer-might-need-to-bring-back-blair/
BY TIM ROSS FEBRUARY 1, 2025
Britain’s prime minister is seemingly always overseas, and some allies wish he’d delegate more of the diplomatic grind — just as his predecessor did.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has spent more time on foreign trips than any of his immediate predecessors.Tim Ross is POLITICO’s chief political correspondent for Europe and the U.K. His most recent book, “Landslide: The Inside Story of the 2024 Election,” was published in November.
A year after his historic election win in 1997, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair remarked that the first thing government officials did when he got the job was take away his passport.
“Seriously! Then they spend the rest of the time trying to take you traveling around the world,” he said.
“Seriously! Then they spend the rest of the time trying to take you traveling around the world,” he said.
And since becoming British prime minister last July, Keir Starmer has found himself in a very similar situation. Whisked up in the whirl of international diplomacy, he’s been juggling the U.K.’s commitments to Ukraine, seeking to reset relations with the EU and preparing for the return of U.S. President Donald Trump.
In fact, Starmer has spent more time on foreign trips than any of his immediate predecessors in their first six months in office, notching up 31 days in overseas travel. That tally has increased since the start of the new year, and Starmer is now set to join EU leaders for dinner in Brussels on Monday. Soon enough, Downing Street officials hope, he’ll also be on a plane to meet Trump in Washington.
Starmer’s clearly committed to the diplomatic part of the role, and with so many international threats weighing on Britain’s economy, it’s hard to argue he’s wrong. But the air miles come with a price tag of their own.
Politically, the prime minister risks being seen as an absentee, and has already been warned he’ll be accused of “fleeing” the country in the face of poor polling results. It’s an easy hit for opponents who want to portray him as out of touch, and it’s one that even the moribund Conservatives won’t miss.
Then there’s the opportunity cost. Travel takes up vast amounts of a leader’s limited time, and it’s tiring too.
There’s also the time consumed hosting world leaders at home in the U.K., who come to see Starmer for lunch in No.10 or — in the case of France’s Emmanuel Macron earlier this month — dinner at the prime minister’s official country retreat of Chequers.
But it’s not as if he doesn’t have other work to do.
In fact, Starmer has spent more time on foreign trips than any of his immediate predecessors in their first six months in office, notching up 31 days in overseas travel. That tally has increased since the start of the new year, and Starmer is now set to join EU leaders for dinner in Brussels on Monday. Soon enough, Downing Street officials hope, he’ll also be on a plane to meet Trump in Washington.
Starmer’s clearly committed to the diplomatic part of the role, and with so many international threats weighing on Britain’s economy, it’s hard to argue he’s wrong. But the air miles come with a price tag of their own.
Politically, the prime minister risks being seen as an absentee, and has already been warned he’ll be accused of “fleeing” the country in the face of poor polling results. It’s an easy hit for opponents who want to portray him as out of touch, and it’s one that even the moribund Conservatives won’t miss.
Then there’s the opportunity cost. Travel takes up vast amounts of a leader’s limited time, and it’s tiring too.
There’s also the time consumed hosting world leaders at home in the U.K., who come to see Starmer for lunch in No.10 or — in the case of France’s Emmanuel Macron earlier this month — dinner at the prime minister’s official country retreat of Chequers.
But it’s not as if he doesn’t have other work to do.
Starmer was elected with a landslide in July on a promise to rebuild Britain after 14 years under the Conservatives. Years that saw the upheaval of Brexit, two referendums, five prime ministers, a pandemic, a war in Ukraine, rocketing immigration, a National Health Service on its knees, a self-inflicted market meltdown and rampant inflation.
Could former prime minister Tony Blair get a recall?
Upon entering Downing Street, however, the Labour team were surprised at just how much of the prime minister’s time was eaten up by diplomatic duties. Of course, this is partly because Starmer’s former chief of staff Sue Gray failed to prepare the new government for the realities of power. “There was no plan,” one government aide said.
But since Morgan McSweeney, the mastermind behind the party’s election victory, replaced Gray in October, he has instilled a missing sense of discipline at No. 10, shaping a clear strategic direction. With Starmer so focused on the multiplying foreign crises, McSweeney has decided to mostly stay in London. He rarely travels with the prime minister — though that’s also because the government has a habit of veering off-course when he’s out of the country.
Downing Street’s strategy for managing these competing pressures has also involved bolstering the prime minister’s team with old hands who know what they’re doing — especially on foreign affairs. For example, when McSweeney asked previous post-holders for their advice upon taking the job, he was so impressed with Blair’s right-hand man Jonathan Powell, he appointed him national security adviser.
Starmer also picked Peter Mandelson, the godfather of the Blair-era Labour Party’s electoral success, to be the next British ambassador to the U.S.
Could former prime minister Tony Blair get a recall?
Upon entering Downing Street, however, the Labour team were surprised at just how much of the prime minister’s time was eaten up by diplomatic duties. Of course, this is partly because Starmer’s former chief of staff Sue Gray failed to prepare the new government for the realities of power. “There was no plan,” one government aide said.
But since Morgan McSweeney, the mastermind behind the party’s election victory, replaced Gray in October, he has instilled a missing sense of discipline at No. 10, shaping a clear strategic direction. With Starmer so focused on the multiplying foreign crises, McSweeney has decided to mostly stay in London. He rarely travels with the prime minister — though that’s also because the government has a habit of veering off-course when he’s out of the country.
Downing Street’s strategy for managing these competing pressures has also involved bolstering the prime minister’s team with old hands who know what they’re doing — especially on foreign affairs. For example, when McSweeney asked previous post-holders for their advice upon taking the job, he was so impressed with Blair’s right-hand man Jonathan Powell, he appointed him national security adviser.
Starmer also picked Peter Mandelson, the godfather of the Blair-era Labour Party’s electoral success, to be the next British ambassador to the U.S.
However, with such names from the Blair years back in Downing Street, one question stands out: Will the former prime minister himself get a recall? Surprisingly, the answer might not be “never.”
While Starmer feels the pull of his international responsibilities, at some point ahead of the next election, McSweeney will want his boss back on the campaign trail rather than strolling the red-carpeted tarmac of foreign airports.
One solution would be to hand over more of the diplomacy to the foreign secretary, or even add a “first secretary of state” position to the cabinet to lighten the load. There’s recent precedent for this: Ahead of the 2024 election, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak brought back former Prime Minister David Cameron to take up the diplomatic burden, so that he could focus on campaigning.
Some in Starmer’s government regard this decision as a smart move on Sunak’s part, especially in an election year. (Some were even lobbying for Cameron to be the new ambassador to the U.S.) So, could they conceivably do the same with Blair when the time comes?
There are several reasons why not: For one, there’s a risk the still vigorous 71-year-old ex-leader could outshine the incumbent. Second, the two men don’t necessarily agree on all policy points.
Despite the wealth of Blair-era wisdom in Starmer’s team, McSweeney doesn’t regard the mission as a Blairite project. (And it’s safe to say that a niggling envy also persists, after Starmer didn’t quite beat Blair’s record-breaking 1997 majority in last year’s election).
While Starmer feels the pull of his international responsibilities, at some point ahead of the next election, McSweeney will want his boss back on the campaign trail rather than strolling the red-carpeted tarmac of foreign airports.
One solution would be to hand over more of the diplomacy to the foreign secretary, or even add a “first secretary of state” position to the cabinet to lighten the load. There’s recent precedent for this: Ahead of the 2024 election, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak brought back former Prime Minister David Cameron to take up the diplomatic burden, so that he could focus on campaigning.
Some in Starmer’s government regard this decision as a smart move on Sunak’s part, especially in an election year. (Some were even lobbying for Cameron to be the new ambassador to the U.S.) So, could they conceivably do the same with Blair when the time comes?
There are several reasons why not: For one, there’s a risk the still vigorous 71-year-old ex-leader could outshine the incumbent. Second, the two men don’t necessarily agree on all policy points.
Despite the wealth of Blair-era wisdom in Starmer’s team, McSweeney doesn’t regard the mission as a Blairite project. (And it’s safe to say that a niggling envy also persists, after Starmer didn’t quite beat Blair’s record-breaking 1997 majority in last year’s election).
Moreover, Blair remains a highly divisive figure, especially for his role in enabling former U.S. President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq in 2003. Giving him a foreign policy brief would be a red rag to many on Labour’s left and beyond.
However, Cameron’s legacy on foreign affairs — ushering in Brexit, most glaringly — was also painfully divisive. In the end, what made the difference for Sunak was the Tories’ dire state with an election on the horizon. He needed to be able to focus on domestic issues to avoid the complete wipeout of his party, which might have otherwise followed.
Starmer’s polling numbers and personal favorability ratings are already bad, with the far-right Reform UK now within touching distance of Labour in voting intention surveys. Of course, polling can be unreliable, and there’s a long way to go before the next election. Starmer himself recently indicated to POLITICO that he won’t call the vote before he has to in 2029.
Labour’s prospects would need to reach a true crisis point before Blair is ever invited back. But as the election draws closer, it would be foolish to think Starmer’s team would never be desperate enough to ask Labour’s most successful leader to hand over his passport one last time.
However, Cameron’s legacy on foreign affairs — ushering in Brexit, most glaringly — was also painfully divisive. In the end, what made the difference for Sunak was the Tories’ dire state with an election on the horizon. He needed to be able to focus on domestic issues to avoid the complete wipeout of his party, which might have otherwise followed.
Starmer’s polling numbers and personal favorability ratings are already bad, with the far-right Reform UK now within touching distance of Labour in voting intention surveys. Of course, polling can be unreliable, and there’s a long way to go before the next election. Starmer himself recently indicated to POLITICO that he won’t call the vote before he has to in 2029.
Labour’s prospects would need to reach a true crisis point before Blair is ever invited back. But as the election draws closer, it would be foolish to think Starmer’s team would never be desperate enough to ask Labour’s most successful leader to hand over his passport one last time.
