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看好 AMZN 的 ER.

2008-10-22 01:25:42

方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨

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AMZN 明天收盘报 ER. 如能对ER 的结果做出真确预测，则可以带来丰厚的利润。

看好 AMZN ER 的原因如下：

1。 AMZN 的业务在过去几个季度不断扩张，稳定增长。它的 business modle 已经扩展到了零售业的很多方面，逐渐变成网上的 WarMark. 今年以来，AMZN 与 Ebay 相反它的ER and Revenue 有加速增长的迹象。AMZN 正在蚕食 EBay 的市场。

2。由于最近的股市崩盘和零售业的下滑，也使AMZN 股价大幅滑落，Analysts 对 ER 的估计也很低。
本季 ER estimate 只有 0.25/shr , 上一季度 AMZN 挣了 0.37/shr. 通常三季要比二季强，如果不出意外，很容易就可以 Beat ER.

3. AMZN 有完全不同的商业模式，不同于一般的零售商。这种 low cost, high efficiency 的商业模式在经济不好的时候会更有效。

基于上述分析，AMZN ER 后跳涨的可能很大。在今天收盘前的低点已经买入AMZN 的 Call and Stock.

JM2C

bah 发表评论于 2008-10-23 07:07:30

in DQ, I only read your posts.. The analysis makes a lot of senses. Would you please add me to your list? y_bhao@yahoo.com

wavePlayer 发表评论于 2008-10-23 04:52:05

回复sohu66的评论: I would like cut off and start over. Release all the fund to do good trade. I will give you some suggestion in the mail.

But if you don't like to take loss, there is a chance the market will rebounce anytime from today (if we have deep sell off again to next week. You can hold for a that ride and sell into strenth. But in any case, you should cut at least half position to reduce loss if AMZN down furterh.
hold another half for posibble rebounce. Then you have fund to buy some good stock. ( Two you can watch are TOL and KBH for short term gain when rebound start.) But it is be best time to get in when Wave 3(4) started which is not far from here.

wavePlayer 发表评论于 2008-10-23 04:41:33

回复chinapg的评论:谢谢。刚看到，还是你厉害。

aaplstart 发表评论于 2008-10-22 23:14:09

Hi waveplayer:
Thank you so much for your post. I like to read your forsight about the market, kind and educational. Could you please put my email on your list: jdeng1@yahoo.com

thanks a lot!

moonwalker123 发表评论于 2008-10-22 17:43:28

Hi, can you please also put my e-mail on your list: dell741852@yahoo.com Thanks.

Thank you for all your kind advices and forsights for the broader market.

I also think AMZN should do much better than all others during recession. I'm also a frequent shopper from AMZN, have holdings since it's IPO, and will still hold on.

donaldtone 发表评论于 2008-10-22 15:41:14

我在48.37买了300股，在ER出来前就跑了。赚了一点点。

mooseandmouse 发表评论于 2008-10-22 15:17:22

Bought a little option, just would like to know how to trade in this kind of case, my mail is : sunnyxiamen@hotmail.com

thanks a lot ! don't worry about too much followers. keep rolling

sohu66 发表评论于 2008-10-22 13:58:07

Hi waveplayer:
I bot 2000 shrs of amzn today. what should I do tomorrow?
my email: jc600@hotmail.com. Thank you.

jim

chinapg 发表评论于 2008-10-22 10:15:05

看AMZN这涨法, ER好也担心明天会跌了. 这年头是做市, 小心为上了. 谢谢提醒.

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看好 AMZN 的 ER.

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wavePlayer

看好 AMZN 的 ER.

wavePlayer (2008-10-22 01:25:42) 评论 (10)

AMZN 明天收盘报 ER. 如能对ER 的结果做出真确预测，则可以带来丰厚的利润。

看好 AMZN ER 的原因如下：

1。 AMZN 的业务在过去几个季度不断扩张，稳定增长。它的 business modle 已经扩展到了零售业的很多方面，逐渐变成网上的 WarMark. 今年以来，AMZN 与 Ebay 相反它的ER and Revenue 有加速增长的迹象。AMZN 正在蚕食 EBay 的市场。

2。由于最近的股市崩盘和零售业的下滑，也使AMZN 股价大幅滑落，Analysts 对 ER 的估计也很低。
本季 ER estimate 只有 0.25/shr , 上一季度 AMZN 挣了 0.37/shr. 通常三季要比二季强，如果不出意外，很容易就可以 Beat ER.

3. AMZN 有完全不同的商业模式，不同于一般的零售商。这种 low cost, high efficiency 的商业模式在经济不好的时候会更有效。

基于上述分析，AMZN ER 后跳涨的可能很大。在今天收盘前的低点已经买入AMZN 的 Call and Stock.

JM2C