笨狼 (2021-06-15 22:35:36) 评论 (0)
一:经济
(肯定在某处记下了)
Quantitative easing: how the world got hooked on magicked-up money - Prospect Magazine
 
S. Eich, Independence from What? – Just Money
Greg Ip on Twitter: "Most of the inflation handwringing is over traditional demand-driven inflation. But the real threat is supply-driven inflation, and it explains the growing worries over the recovery's health. My column. https://t.co/uEmQg8FXEf" / Twitter
How Inflation Threatens the Recovery - WSJ
U.S.-China Goods Trade Booms as If Virus, Tariffs Never Happened - Bloomberg
 
How China Is Helping to Damp Global Inflation - WSJ
 
 
二:中国
阎学通:新时代外交,中国如何发出自己的声音? (guancha.cn)
[最初,拜登的胜选在中国政府内部和媒体中引发了乐观情绪,他们判断华盛顿的对华政策会进行根本性的反思。但这种乐观情绪很快就消失了]中国最初希望拜登政府能够缓和与中国的紧张关系,但这一希望已经破灭。
中国已经走过了“站起来”和“富起来”的阶段,现在到了“强起来”的阶段。以美国为首的单极秩序正在逐渐消失,中国的崛起和美国的相对衰落加速了这一秩序的消亡,取而代之的将是一个以中美为核心的多极秩序。
一方面,中国急于避免将与西方的关系定格为一场新冷战。中国领导人认为,苏联式的意识形态扩张主义可能会引发反弹,从而阻碍中国经济持续增长,而且他们并不寄望自己的意识形态能像西方自由主义那样传播到世界各地——他们强调中国是一个“有中国特色”的发展中国家,暗示其他国家不能原封不动地照搬其政治制度和治理模式
例如,美国从选举政治和个人表达的角度来定义民主和自由,而中国则从社会安全和经济发展的角度来定义民主与自由
与西方的普遍看法相反,中国实际上并没有拒绝多边规则和多边机构,中国只是不接受美国在未与中国协商的情况下制定规则
中国政府希望由此产生的国内繁荣将改善与其他国家的经济关系,并助力世界经济复苏
北京还将寻求减少美国金融制裁的影响,包括在外贸和对外投资领域促进人民币国际化。2020年,中国开始在少数几个大城市试点数字人民币,这种创新有朝一日可以让中国及其商业伙伴在受美国控制的SWIFT系统之外进行货币交易。SWIFT是美国重要的地缘政治杠杆。
这是
Becoming Strong - Foreign Affairs
 
田飞龙:“一国两制”方案,不能只想着怎样给台湾更高的自治权 (guancha.cn)
田飞龙的说法没什么人会接受
这是对田飞龙最响亮的回击:
The current exodus from Hong Kong isn’t like pre-1997 – these people won’t be returning. And that changes the city | South China Morning Post
 
袁鹏:新冠疫情与百年变局 - 爱思想
 
Philippines: Asia Cannot Afford South China Sea War – Eurasia Review
 
The Myth of Authoritarian Superiority: China’s Response to Covid-19 Revisited (prcleader.org)
The West isn’t dying – its ideas live on in China (newstatesman.com)
 
 
三:美国
 
美国一场打不赢的战争
The legacy of 9/11 - Prospect Magazine
Why there is no solution to our age of crisis without China (newstatesman.com)
 
Asia Digital Deal Raises Hope U.S. to Rejoin TPP Successor - Bloomberg
(华尔街日报的)
 
其实拜登是没办法,因为他在国内没能力调动其他势力,大家不听他的
Infrastructure bill: Here's what's in it - CNNPolitics
However, it is far short of the $2.25 trillion proposal that President Joe Biden unveiled in March
$550bn (Biden ask $2.3T)
The Infrastructure Plan: What’s In and What’s Out - The New York Times
 
 
 
拜登绞杀的中国良策
 
Biden’s China Policy Borrows From Trump and Adds Allies to Raise Pressure - WSJ
正如《华尔街日报》所言,其实拜登没什么招数,就是用“民主对专制”引诱“西方盟友”共同反华,反华的对此还是沿用川普大家记得川普的美国第一是反贸易反
而且还很混乱,一直不知道怎么办
 
Digital colonialism: The evolution of US empire - Longreads (tni.org)
美国副外长谢尔曼(中国称为舍曼)访问中国前夕,赵立坚放出狠话【1】,“美方一再扬言‘从实力地位出发’与中方对话,这反映出美方的傲慢和霸道。正如中方一再指出,美方没有资格对中国说教或指手画脚,没有资格说从实力地位出发与中国打交道。‘我们在安克雷奇不吃这一套,在天津更不会吃这一套。’”可以说中国最恨就是“从实力地位出发”这句话,一下子就把中国压在下面,
 
真正感到中国威胁的,恰恰是对以美国为世界领袖自由民主秩序深信不疑的那一群人,有理论家,有思想界,有政治家、政客,也有资本界和军工产业的代表,这种威胁的第一
 
拜登对华政策不论多么高唱“民主”,他都不能停下来与中国合作抗疫,可见民主只是一种手段,借口
 
【1】赵立坚说中方在天津更不吃美方这一套-新华网 (xinhuanet.com)

 

美国释放了几名被美国控告签证作假的解放军学者,不知道是不是信号,如今什么都是筹码,什么都是一步棋
 
全球化并没有减弱、
Globalization Isn’t in Decline: It’s Changing | (ecipe.org)
数字经济在扩大,美国的数字经济联盟
 
 
 
Why Tianjin? And what’s in store in China for US envoy Wendy Sherman? | South China Morning Post
China promises US a ‘tutorial’ in how to treat other countries equally ahead of deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman’s visit | South China Morning Post
“我们有责任给美国补上这一课”_王毅 (sohu.com)
 
政策的矛盾反映在财政姚玲和贸易代表戴琪之间的不同意见
U.S.-Asia Digital Pact Held Up by Squabble Among Biden Officials - WSJ
 
Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win - The Atlantic
 
【】中方决定对前美商务部长罗斯等7个美方人员和实体实施制裁 (guancha.cn)
中国的制裁只不过是回应美国之前的举动,未必算得上对谢尔曼的警告,但至少可以表示对等。
 
【】The Intellectual Foundations of the Biden Revolution - Foreign Policy
这个辩论太有揭示性了,不可能有一个自由秩序
Washington’s Democracy Dilemma | Foreign Affairs
Michael Lind
Foreign War Has Not Made America a Garrison State (nationalinterest.org)
 
Biden Isn’t Ending the Forever Wars. He’s Rebranding Them. | The New Republic
Biden’s Dangerous China Doctrine (foreignpolicy.com)
 
China’s Sputnik Moment? | Foreign Affairs
Fed up with the U.S., Ukraine cuts deals with China and shuts up about the Uyghurs (nbcnews.com)
 
Misplaced Restraint: The Quincy Coalition Versus Liberal Internationalism (tandfonline.com)
Calling 'liberal internationalism' what it is: American primacy – Responsible Statecraft
https://twitter.com/stephenWalt/status/1423302951959941126
U.S. Foreign Policy Restraint—What It Is, What It’s Not | The National Interest
 
 
Soft Sells: On Liberal Internationalism | The Nation
Even a Short War Over Taiwan or the Baltics Would Be Horrific for Civilians (foreignpolicy.com)
Rachel Esplin Odell on Twitter: "Deeply important piece by @danmahanty of @CivCenter. This should be required reading for anyone pontificating on 'great power competition.' A US-China war could unleash a level of human devastation the world has never seen--certainly not in my lifetime. https://t.co/TAfnRL6mO3" / Twitter
 
The Problem with Biden’s Democracy Agenda - War on the Rocks
If Biden wants to bring about a democratic revival — to lead, as he constantly (and rightly) says, by the “power of our example” — he should focus on getting America’s own house in order. Until then, less preaching and a little humility are called for
 
拜登
"American Exceptionalism" for the 21st Century - by Kate Kizer - Foreign Exchanges
Biden Can Do Better Than Trump’s China Policy - The American Prospect
能做得更好,还是不愿意?
 
外交部副部长谢锋在天津同美国常务副国务卿舍曼会谈 (guancha.cn)
确实说得挺全面,但要降低对立程度,中国也得做出让步
中国指责美国“丛林规则”,时代变了
China lays down “four stops” for visiting Dep Sec of State Wendy Sherman
 
 
中方向美方提出两份清单-新华网
且不说撤销、修正这些政策对美国好不好,仅仅是就拜登目前在国内的处境,就知道他做不到
US-China relations: Beijing lays down red lines for first time in Sherman meeting | South China Morning Post
 
美媒淡化中方两份清单,“他们甚至没勇气面对这一现实” (guancha.cn)
人家置之不理,什么“没勇气面对”
 
AP Interview: US calls on China to be responsible power | The State
王毅会见美国常务副国务卿舍曼:向美方提出三条底线 | 新浪新闻
Biden Accuses Russia of Already Interfering in 2022 Election | Voice of America
Biden referred to both Russia and China as "possibly mortal competitors down the road."
the U.S. president said that Chinese President Xi Jinping "is deadly earnest about becoming the most powerful military force in the world, as well as the largest and most prominent economy in the world" by the mid-2040s.
拜登放话:若美国与某大国打“热战”,导火索是“网络攻击” (guancha.cn)
怎么理解拜登的话呢?你可以想拜登很担心,但同时暗示美国不会退缩,即使开战也在所不惜
欧美澳日官员发声明支持第二阶段新冠溯源,中方表态 (guancha.cn)
 
The U.S. Air Force Is Sending Dozens Of F-22 Stealth Fighters To Practice For War With China (forbes.com)
 
 
大局:全球化之类的大趋势
Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/5 I am not on the inside so I don't know how well the meeting went, but from the press reports I'd say not terribly well. I'd add three things. https://t.co/mblxmUFTs7 via @scmpnews" / Twitter
Geopolitical tensions and anti-foreign feelings have been rising among a wide range of countries, and for a variety of reasons
It will be especially difficult for Beijing to resolve its tensions with other countries – India, Japan, Australia, Europe, the UK, Brazil, the Philippines, and others – as long as it continues to insist that these tensions can only be blamed on actions by Washington
 
到处出击四面树敌,中国的政治大家不感冒
 
Biden’s China Strategy Meets Resistance at the Negotiating Table - The New York Times
“We believe our relationship can tolerate that nuance.”
舍曼言轻了
They included human rights, quickly narrowing political freedoms in Hong Kong and what Ms. Sherman called “the horrifying actions taking place in Xinjiang,”
Ms. Sherman also raised China’s demands over Taiwan, its military operations in the South China Sea, and the accusations last week by the United States and other nations that China’s Ministry of State Security was behind the hacking
 
“We were quite direct with each other on the areas of great difference,” she said.
 
While Mr. Biden has largely avoided  the heated ideological sparring with the Chinese Communist Party that the Trump administration pursued in its final year,
显然不是如此,拜登更加意识形态,只是没那么人身攻击
 
The rules-based order meets its end - by Bruno Maçães - World Game
Smart comments
U.S. to stress need for 'guardrails' in Sherman's talks in China | Reuters
US to tell China it doesn't want to 'veer into conflict' - Nikkei Asia
在中国人读起来,就是,我打你,会很狠,但你不能哭
 
 
Chinese Officials Blame U.S. for Stalemate in High-Level Talks - WSJ
“There are some things that rise above specific differences that are the global responsibility of great powers,” Ms. Sherman told the Associated Press in an interview after the meeting in Tianjin concluded.
I’m old enough to remember the Obama admin’s refusal to use Beijing’s “new type of great power relationship” 新型大国关系 language because it implied acknowledgment of peer status. Eric Hundman | 何諳銳
 
China says US relations at a ‘deadlock’ in high-level talks | Financial Times
China is defying US pressure to change its behaviour | Financial Times
https://twitter.com/DeputySecState/status/1419613445029249026
Artyom Lukin on Twitter: "There is some cognitive dissonance when one country accuses another government of "genocide and crimes against humanity", but at the same time maintains a $560 bln annual trade relationship with the government in question. https://t.co/1fOIWeLzVW" / Twitter
 
US, China hold high-level talks, highlighting differences (apnews.com)
 
 
Beijing thrusts long lists of demands at Biden administration - POLITICO
China, US draw lines in the sand at top-level meeting but agree to keep talking | South China Morning Post
 
Deputy Secretary Sherman’s Visit to the People’s Republic of China - United States Department of State
,显示两国之间保持开放沟通渠道的重要性,讨论如何为负责任地管理美中关系设定条件。谢尔曼强调欢迎两国激烈竞争,但不寻求与中国冲突。
接上:国务院声明称谢尔曼私下提出对中国系列行动的关切,包括香港新疆西藏人权问题,及对媒体准入和新闻自由的限制。她谈及北京在网络空间、台海、东海、南海行为的关切。
谢尔曼提出美加公民在中国被拘被禁出境的情况,提醒人命不是讨价还价的筹码;重申美国对中国拒绝世卫第二阶段溯源调查的关切。
 
 
“Despite our different views over the Hong Kong or the Uyghur cases, what Trump called the economic decoupling with China is something beyond our intentions and is contrary to our interests,” said Borrell
EU mulls review of China policy, again – POLITICO
 
牛逼
In Stinging Rebuke, China Tells U.S. Diplomat That Its Rise Can’t Be Stopped, likely true, but the question of why the US should continue to help its rise is now mainstream and likely to be answered in a bipartisan way "we should not"
 
为什么大家可以放弃事关人类生存的第一威胁而走入一场你死我活的斗争?
气候
Opinion | Apocalypse Right Now - The New York Times
As Frozen Land Burns, Siberia Trembles - The New York Times
Humans have pushed the climate into ‘unprecedented’ territory, landmark U.N. report finds - The Washington Post
IPCC report’s verdict on climate crimes of humanity: guilty as hell | Climate change | The Guardian
 
‘Apocalyptic’ scenes hit Greece as Athens besieged by fire | Wildfires | The Guardian
Turkey wildfires: 'The animals are on fire,' say devastated farmers as wildfires sweep Turkey - CNN
Heat Wave Spread Fire That Erased Lytton, British Columbia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
 
Fires rage around the world: where are the worst blazes? | Wildfires | The Guardian
 
Oil producers face costly transition as world looks to net-zero future | Financial Times
 
 
Chapter 1: The Construction of Political Superiority - The China Story
中国最自己制度的自信不是没道理,但中国会发现把信念转换成现实,很难,甚至遥不可及
China Crackdown Makes Hong Kong Index World’s Biggest Tech Loser - Bloomberg
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/crackdown-by-china-on-tech-cos-make-hong-kong-index-world-s-biggest-loser-121072500147_1.html
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-crackdown-makes-hong-kong-index-world-s-biggest-tech-loser-1.1632559
 
No evidence the US has Australia’s back in its dispute with China, despite all the rhetoric | South China Morning Post
 
四:欧洲
MEPs set out their vision for a new EU strategy for China - EU Reporter
五:历史
六:政治
We Can’t Go Back to a Golden Age of Capitalism (jacobinmag.com)
The Imperial Syndrome - JHI Blog(网站好像不错?)
Decolonize Intellectual History! An Agenda for the Capitalocene - JHI Blog
七:科技
Big Tech calls for ‘regulation’ but is fuzzy on the details | Financial Times
美国要政府插手,降低自己的责任,中国政府主动,则被指责成专制干预市场
 
八:人文
 
 
在中国,“国家”在个人生活里无处不在,在美国(和西方资本主义国家),“公司”在个人生活里无处不在,韦伯所说的现代人努力把“工作”和“生活”分离(Compartmentalization),有多大现实呢?
 
Inside Amazon's Employment Machine - The New York Times
Amazon’s Greatest Weapon Against Unions: Worker Turnover | HuffPost
Amazon’s Ring is the largest civilian surveillance network the US has ever seen | Lauren Bridges | The Guardian
 
“党”
Unlocking anti-fragile China: How Xi reinforces the party state for global leadership | Merics
 
美国的战略产业链面临的难题:打不过中国
 
FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force to Address Short-Term Supply Chain Discontinuities | The White House
FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration 100-Day Battery Supply Chain Review | Department of Energy
https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/mcm/Pages/supply-chain-100-days.aspx
 
Experts React: Assessing the White House 100-Day Supply Chain Review | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Biden Announces Next Steps in US Critical Supply Chain Review | IndustryWeek
Biden Administration Outlines Measures to Address Supply-Chain Issues - WSJ
Biden Administration Moves to Fix Supply Chain Bottlenecks - The New York Times
Biden to shore up supply chains for four sectors after 100-day reviews - POLITICO
Factbox: Biden supply-chain review yields measures on China | Reuters
Biden's Plan To Reduce Shortages Of Critical Products : NPR
 
Breaking Down the White House’s Supply Chain Recommendations (linkedin.com)
Craig Allen:
U.S.-China trade dispute harms Americans - POLITICO
 
China's Trade Data for H1 2021 Shows Stronger Than Expected Results (china-briefing.com)
China’s June exports make ‘surprise’ surge, but questions linger over trade outlook | South China Morning Post
China's export growth quickens as global vaccinations, easing lockdowns lift demand | Reuters
229% Surge in China-U.S. Shipping Costs Drives Inflation Pressure - BNN Bloomberg
海关总署:上半年我国自美国进口农产品增长120.8%_新浪财经_新浪网 (sina.com.cn)
 
and next and stuck-at-home U.S. consumers still shopping and importing in record amounts.
U.S. companies purchasing goods they can’t get elsewhere to meet elevated household demand fueled in part by trillions of dollars in government stimulus.
“We’ve seen the strong consumer demand that’s been occurring throughout the pandemic, and we’ve seen the import levels just go through the roof,”
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v2/charts/ea90993e2d94494082835565bd75cbd8.html?brand=markets&webTheme=markets&web=true&hideTitles=true
 
 
欧洲的困境
The EU’s unsustainable China strategy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Pepijn Bergsen on Twitter: "For my first solo think-tank report I analysed the EU's China strategy from an economic perspective and looked at the implications for transatlantic cooperation on China. Short ???? below and full report here: https://t.co/5C23Me87Va" / Twitter
 
欧洲联盟,形成朋友圈,将中国排斥在外
Biden’s Plan to Cooperate With Europe on Tech (foreignpolicy.com)
EU starts work on rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative – POLITICO
Biden and EU allies create tough week for China - POLITICO
 
Can China blunt the impact of new US economic sanctions? | PIIE
 
Institute for New Economic Thinking (ineteconomics.org)
 
‘Onshoring’ Is So Last Year. The New Lingo Is ‘Friend-Shoring’ - Bloomberg
The Challenge of Rebuilding U.S. Domestic Supply Chains (hbr.org)
The Biden administration adopted “ally-shoring” and spun it into “friend-shoring” in a 250-page report released this month titled Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth.
Rebuilding America’s economy and foreign policy with ‘ally-shoring’ (brookings.edu)
基本上是美国阵营的
 
 
非常技术性的军事力量对比分析,太难
Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Defense Department News
Trends, Timelines, and Uncertainty: an Assessment of the Military Balance in the Indo-Pacific - Shugart SFRC Testimony 17 Mar 2021 FINAL.docx (senate.gov)
 
半导体、芯片(这些报道都可疑)
Chinese firm's 7nm GPU expected to tape out in Q3 - CnTechPost
U.S. Blocks Chinese Deal for Magnachip | EE Times
Huawei to run foundry biz (digitimes.com)
Huawei's 'HiSilicon Factory' to close chipset gap - Asia Times
Mapping China’s semiconductor ecosystem in global context: Strategic dimensions and conclusions | Merics
China set to achieve 14 nm breakthrough in 2022 | total telecom
China's first 12-inch wafer regeneration facility achieves mass production - CnTechPost
 
China hoards Semiconductor Equipment... A Surge in Purchases of US Equipment despite Public Regulations - ETNews
 
Global wafer semiconductor production capacity
ASML’s chip money machines | Financial Times
 
14nm chips will reach mass production in China next year | total telecom
March 2021: Results from China's Semiconductor Big Fund I | Tech Buzz China Insider
 

亚洲视觉科技研发总监陈经
国产14nm芯片明年底量产,能在2025年形成有效产能就不错了,但意义极大_风闻
温晓君“国产14nm芯片明年量产”的技术性解读_风闻
媒体删除“国产14nm芯片明年量产”是严谨的,原内容也不符合技术规律_风闻
最近我的芯片宣传取得一定成效,部分读者冷静了很多,中国芯片业必须拒绝“沸腾”_风闻
 
美国的民不聊生
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
旧:
 
MIT Visualizing Cultures
 
 
 
 
https://visualizingcultures.mit.edu/opium_wars_01/ow1_essay01.html
战狼:The Man Behind China’s Aggressive New Voice - The New York Times(很显然报道对美国的作用轻描淡写)
 
 
 
金星与一起主持《金星秀》的沈南。
天啊,变性人
 
这个躺平《纽时》采访还不错
我觉得我们的社会就是一个等级森严的尊卑社会体系,人活着应该是可上可下的一种生活方式,现在变成一种全民打鸡血的,这不太妥当
 
澳大利亚的反对声音
 
经济
三胎政策的投机
 
外交
对付沙特的困境,和最近几天回见沙特王子,说明美国还是假的
 
打仗
 
 
美国思想
这两篇《经济学人》对美国战略思维的贫困描述得很深
China Inc’s new inconspicuous expansion | The Economist
 
 
 
非常一针见血
 
 
 
军事
 
兔主席
 
Amid a historic crackdown on China’s tech sector, companies are also working to eliminate 996 work culture and answer Beijing’s call to boost employment?
 
 
新疆
 
 
 
 
 
哪来的?
 
 
作假?
 
 
 
 
 
 
印度疫情
印度
 
 
Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are abusing their power while China waits to assert its primacy in the world economy
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

【拜登思想】
Biden Wants to Build ‘From the Middle Out.’ Here’s What He Means - Bloomberg
 

 

外交部:30国领导人已公开接种中国疫苗 (guancha.cn)

 

 
 

 

 

 

 
Will COVID become a disease of the young? (nature.com)
TRENDING YOUNGER. Over half of Israel's new COVID-19 cases in the month up to 5 July were in people aged 19 and under.
以色列,民情与其他国家不一样
It’s a trend that’s not restricted to Israel. In the United States and the United Kingdom, COVID-19 has “become a disease of the unvaccinated, who are predominantly young”, says Joshua Goldstein, a demographer at the University of California, Berkeley.
 
The Delta Variant Is the Symptom of a Bigger Threat: Vaccine Refusal - The New York Times
‘Ridiculous’: Vaccine Myths Cripple U.S. Uptake as Delta Surges - Bloomberg
@EBHarrington on COVID+ pandemic deniers & anti-vaxxers
 
National Demographic Analysis Tables: 2020 (census.gov)
 
 
中国行动的终结
The Justice Department’s China Initiative Threatens America’s Innovative Edge (foreignpolicy.com)
中国行动计划(CHINA INITIATIVE)到底是什么?
U.S. moves to drop visa fraud charges against Chinese researcher | Reuters
中美科技战华裔科学家首当其冲, 象牙塔内的间谍疑云 - BBC News 中文
 
言论自由和《羊村十二勇士》
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-police-arrest-five-over-childrens-books-depicting-protesters-as-sheep-11626965344
https://www.sohu.com/a/444394140_162522