https://www.wqln.org/2025-08-07/economist-paul-krugman-on-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs
史蒂夫·英斯基普 2025年8月7日
史蒂夫·英斯基普，主持人：
现在我们请到保罗·克鲁格曼，他一直在密切关注这一切。他是纽约城市大学的经济学家，在他的Substack网站上撰写经济学文章，还拿过诺贝尔奖之类的。克鲁格曼先生，我说得对吗？
保罗·克鲁格曼：他们就是这么告诉我的。
英斯基普：好的，太好了。恭喜你。斯科特·霍斯利刚才提到了对咖啡征收50%的关税。所以我还想问你，你喝咖啡吗？
克鲁格曼：我是。我非常恼火，我们竟然豁免了巴西橙汁的关税，而我却不喝橙汁，还对咖啡征税，而咖啡是我赖以生存的。
因斯基普：那么，我们来谈谈更广泛的影响吧。我们刚刚听说了通货膨胀，虽然没有达到很高的水平，但正朝着错误的方向缓慢蔓延，导致经济增长放缓。我立刻想到了20世纪70年代的那句老话——滞胀。我们面临这种风险吗？
克鲁格曼：可能只是轻度滞胀。我的意思是，你知道，合理的数据显示，我们可能正走向接近4%的通胀率。我们可能正走向——我们肯定会看到经济放缓。至于它是否真的会跨越界限进入衰退，目前尚不清楚，但不会让人感觉——感觉会很糟糕。
因斯基普：我在想麦当劳的数据，它似乎出现了分化。麦当劳的销售额似乎是根据顾客的收入划分的。低收入顾客似乎感到担忧，减少了支出，麦当劳认为这和对关税的担忧有关。他们的整体销售额略有增长，所以我想高收入人群，即使是收入略高一点的人群，也不太担心。您对此有何看法？
克鲁格曼：嗯，您想想——您知道，关税本质上是一种选择性销售税。它是对碰巧进口的商品征收的税。无论特朗普怎么说，外国人都不用缴纳。美国消费者缴纳的是销售税，而销售税是累退税。底层人群（占人口30%或40%）的销售税负担比1%的人群要重得多。所以，这正是您所预料的。那些迎合低收入消费者以及总体低收入消费者的产品将受到更大的冲击，我们已经开始看到这一点了。我不得不说，我很惊讶我们这么快就看到了，但它来了。
因斯基普：好吧，我们来谈谈事情可能的发展方向。今天节目中还有一位嘉宾，迈克·弗勒德。他是来自内布拉斯加州的共和党众议员。我问他关于关税的问题，以及为什么国会袖手旁观，允许总统在贸易法庭认定这是国会的责任的情况下随意增减税收。他似乎对目前的形势并不满意，但他充满希望。他说：“我们必须非常稳定。我们必须非常可预测。我们现在还没有做到这一点，但我相信这一点，因为我希望这些贸易协议能够达成。” 他希望至少给总统到圣诞节的时间。你觉得这个时间表怎么样？
克鲁格曼：嗯，问题是，协议是什么？我的意思是，据说我们和欧洲达成了协议，但根据协议，我们——欧洲卖给我们的所有产品仍然要征收15%的关税。所以这看起来不像是什么交易。而且事实证明，欧洲人并没有真正承诺给我们多少回报。所以这些交易很大程度上只是特朗普的臆想。我们真正看到的是，美国加征了一堆关税，一些国家为了阻止他进一步提高关税而说了好话，但实际上什么也没做。所以，除非法院裁定这整件事都是非法的——事实上确实如此——但我不知道他们是否会这样裁定，否则我们就会面临这样的处境。我们又回到了90年前的高关税水平。
因斯基普：我想问一下这件事的另一个影响。苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克昨天在白宫椭圆形办公室向肯塔基州玻璃制造公司的总裁做了一个简短的陈述。他说，我们不能像你最初要求的那样在美国生产整部iPhone，但我们可以生产玻璃，我们会努力做到这一点。您是否认为美国工业界会真正努力将产业回流到美国本土，而这正是政府的目标之一？
克鲁格曼：这将会非常有限。是的，会有一些边缘性举措。但是，你知道，当一位高管在与总统的一次重要会议上宣布类似的事情，并因此获得一些关税豁免时，你不得不怀疑这是否是真的，或者这是否是他们本来就打算做的事情，但你知道，假装他们是在帮总统的忙显然符合他们的利益。因此，将会有很多引人注目的投资公告，这些投资实际上并非额外的，只是一些无关紧要的东西。
他们无论如何都会这么做。
因斯基普：保罗·克鲁格曼是纽约城市大学的经济学家。非常感谢。与您交谈总是一件愉快的事。
克鲁格曼：谢谢。
文字记录由NPR提供，版权归NPR所有。NPR文字记录由NPR承包商在紧急截稿时间内制作。本文可能并非最终版本，未来可能会更新或修订。准确性和可用性可能会有所不同。NPR节目的权威记录是音频记录。
Krugman on the impact of Trump's tariffs
https://www.wqln.org/2025-08-07/economist-paul-krugman-on-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs
By Steve Inskeep August 7, 2025
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Now we're joined by Paul Krugman, who's closely following all of this. He's an economist at the City University of New York and writes about economics on his Substack and has a Nobel Prize or something. Am I right, Mr. Krugman?
PAUL KRUGMAN: That's what they tell me.
INSKEEP: OK, excellent. Congratulations. Fifty percent tariff on coffee is one of the things that Scott Horsley just mentioned. So I'll also ask you, are you a coffee drinker?
KRUGMAN: I am. I'm extremely annoyed that we're exempting Brazilian orange juice, which I don't drink, and we're taxing the coffee, which is what I live on.
INSKEEP: So let's talk about the broader effects here. We just heard about inflation, not getting really high, but creeping in the wrong direction and slowing growth. I immediately think of that old phrase from the 1970s, stagflation. Are we at risk of that?
KRUGMAN: Probably a mild case. I mean, we're - you know, reasonable numbers say we might be heading for something closing in on 4% inflation. We might be heading for - we're definitely seeing a slowdown in the economy. Whether it actually crosses the line into a recession is less clear, but it's not going to feel - it's going to feel pretty bad.
INSKEEP: I was thinking about that McDonald's number, and it seemed to be divided. McDonald's sales seem to be divided based on the income of the customer. Lower-income customers seem worried and are spending less, and McDonald's thinks that concern about tariffs has something to do with it. Their overall sales are up a little bit, so I guess higher-income people, even slightly higher income, are less worried. What do you make of that?
KRUGMAN: Well, you want to think - you know, a tariff is basically a selective sales tax. It's a tax on goods that happen to be imported. It's - foreigners do not pay it, whatever Trump may say. U.S. consumers pay it, and sales taxes are regressive. Sales taxes fall much more heavily on people in the bottom, 30% or 40% of the population, than they do on the 1%. So it's exactly what you'd expect. It would be things that cater to lower-income consumers and generally lower-income consumers in general, are going to be hurting more, and we're already starting to see that. I have to say, I'm surprised we're seeing it so soon, but here it comes.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about where this might be going. We have elsewhere in the program today, Mike Flood. He's a Republican representative from Nebraska. And I asked him about tariffs and why Congress is sitting back and allowing the president to raise and lower taxes when a trade court is find this is - found this is Congress' responsibility. He didn't seem to love the current situation, but he was hopeful. He said, quote, "we have to be very stable. We have to be very predictable. We don't have that right now, but I'm buying into it because I want these trade deals done." He wants to give the president at least until Christmas. What do you think of that timeline?
KRUGMAN: Well, the question is, what is the deal? I mean, supposedly, we have a deal with Europe, but with the deal, we - it's still a 15% tariff on everything Europe sells us. So that doesn't look like much of a deal. And it turns out that the Europeans have not really promised us much in return. So the deals are largely a figment of Trump's imagination. What we're really seeing is that the United States went and imposed a bunch of tariffs, and a bunch of countries said nice things in order to keep him from raising them even higher, but they haven't actually done anything. So unless the courts rule that the whole thing is illegal, which it really is, but I don't know if they're going to rule it that way, this is where we are. We're back to tariffs as high as they were 90 years ago.
INSKEEP: Let me ask about another effect of this. Tim Cook, the head of Apple, was at the White House yesterday and made a little presentation in the Oval Office to the president of Kentucky-made glass. He said, we can't make the whole iPhone in the United States, as you originally requested, but we can make the glass, and we're going to work on that. Do you see real efforts by American industry to reshore industry, which was one of the administration's goals?
KRUGMAN: It's going to be really limited. Yeah, there'll be a few things at the margin. But, you know, when an executive announces something like that in a big meeting with the president and gets some tariff exemptions as part of it, you have to wonder whether this is real or whether this is something they were going to do anyway, but it's, you know, clearly in their interest to pretend that they're doing a favor for the president. And so there's going to be a lot of splashy announcements of investments that really aren't additional, that are really just stuff that they were going to do regardless.
INSKEEP: Paul Krugman is an economist at the City University of New York. Thanks very much. It's always a pleasure talking with you.
KRUGMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
Steve Inskeep
Now we're joined by Paul Krugman, who's closely following all of this. He's an economist at the City University of New York and writes about economics on his Substack and has a Nobel Prize or something. Am I right, Mr. Krugman?
PAUL KRUGMAN: That's what they tell me.
INSKEEP: OK, excellent. Congratulations. Fifty percent tariff on coffee is one of the things that Scott Horsley just mentioned. So I'll also ask you, are you a coffee drinker?
KRUGMAN: I am. I'm extremely annoyed that we're exempting Brazilian orange juice, which I don't drink, and we're taxing the coffee, which is what I live on.
INSKEEP: So let's talk about the broader effects here. We just heard about inflation, not getting really high, but creeping in the wrong direction and slowing growth. I immediately think of that old phrase from the 1970s, stagflation. Are we at risk of that?
KRUGMAN: Probably a mild case. I mean, we're - you know, reasonable numbers say we might be heading for something closing in on 4% inflation. We might be heading for - we're definitely seeing a slowdown in the economy. Whether it actually crosses the line into a recession is less clear, but it's not going to feel - it's going to feel pretty bad.
INSKEEP: I was thinking about that McDonald's number, and it seemed to be divided. McDonald's sales seem to be divided based on the income of the customer. Lower-income customers seem worried and are spending less, and McDonald's thinks that concern about tariffs has something to do with it. Their overall sales are up a little bit, so I guess higher-income people, even slightly higher income, are less worried. What do you make of that?
KRUGMAN: Well, you want to think - you know, a tariff is basically a selective sales tax. It's a tax on goods that happen to be imported. It's - foreigners do not pay it, whatever Trump may say. U.S. consumers pay it, and sales taxes are regressive. Sales taxes fall much more heavily on people in the bottom, 30% or 40% of the population, than they do on the 1%. So it's exactly what you'd expect. It would be things that cater to lower-income consumers and generally lower-income consumers in general, are going to be hurting more, and we're already starting to see that. I have to say, I'm surprised we're seeing it so soon, but here it comes.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about where this might be going. We have elsewhere in the program today, Mike Flood. He's a Republican representative from Nebraska. And I asked him about tariffs and why Congress is sitting back and allowing the president to raise and lower taxes when a trade court is find this is - found this is Congress' responsibility. He didn't seem to love the current situation, but he was hopeful. He said, quote, "we have to be very stable. We have to be very predictable. We don't have that right now, but I'm buying into it because I want these trade deals done." He wants to give the president at least until Christmas. What do you think of that timeline?
KRUGMAN: Well, the question is, what is the deal? I mean, supposedly, we have a deal with Europe, but with the deal, we - it's still a 15% tariff on everything Europe sells us. So that doesn't look like much of a deal. And it turns out that the Europeans have not really promised us much in return. So the deals are largely a figment of Trump's imagination. What we're really seeing is that the United States went and imposed a bunch of tariffs, and a bunch of countries said nice things in order to keep him from raising them even higher, but they haven't actually done anything. So unless the courts rule that the whole thing is illegal, which it really is, but I don't know if they're going to rule it that way, this is where we are. We're back to tariffs as high as they were 90 years ago.
INSKEEP: Let me ask about another effect of this. Tim Cook, the head of Apple, was at the White House yesterday and made a little presentation in the Oval Office to the president of Kentucky-made glass. He said, we can't make the whole iPhone in the United States, as you originally requested, but we can make the glass, and we're going to work on that. Do you see real efforts by American industry to reshore industry, which was one of the administration's goals?
KRUGMAN: It's going to be really limited. Yeah, there'll be a few things at the margin. But, you know, when an executive announces something like that in a big meeting with the president and gets some tariff exemptions as part of it, you have to wonder whether this is real or whether this is something they were going to do anyway, but it's, you know, clearly in their interest to pretend that they're doing a favor for the president. And so there's going to be a lot of splashy announcements of investments that really aren't additional, that are really just stuff that they were going to do regardless.
INSKEEP: Paul Krugman is an economist at the City University of New York. Thanks very much. It's always a pleasure talking with you.
KRUGMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
Steve InskeepSteve Inskeep is a host of NPR's Morning Edition, as well as NPR's morning news podcast Up First.
