马凯硕 西方不理解中国

与马凯硕教授一起探索世界

Zoom the World with prof. Kishore Mahbubani

Centrum Stosunków Mi?dzynarodowych  Rise of Asia 2025年5月13日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqPTpopOG58

Ma?gorzata Bonikowska，博士

华沙大学国际关系中心主席，讲师

专业领域：欧盟、欧盟外交与安全政策、欧洲全球战略

Ma?gorzata Bonikowska 拥有人文学科博士学位，专攻国际关系（尤其侧重于欧盟）和公共机构传播。她是欧盟专家、政府顾问和学术研究员，毕业于华沙大学（意大利研究）、巴黎索邦大学（历史与政治学）和波兰国立戏剧学院（PWST）文化史专业。拥有两届博士学位。项目：Bonikowska博士曾在波兰（波兰科学院）和国外（意大利SSSS）学习，并在纽约哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务学院（SIPA）完成了专业课程（富布赖特奖学金）。她著有150多部出版物，并指导过100多篇本科、硕士和研究生论文。

在本视频中，前新加坡外交官马凯硕（Kishore Mahbubani）解释了西方为何对中国的崛起和意图存在根本性误解。他认为，许多西方领导人仍陷于冷战思维，未能理解中国独特的发展道路和全球视野。马凯硕挑战了西方普遍将中国视为威胁的叙事，并呼吁人们采取更平衡、更现实的视角。如果您想了解一个超越常规新闻报道、发人深省的中国视角，那么这部影片不容错过。<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ma?gorzata Bonikowska

您如何描述世界正在发生的这种转变？

Kishore Mahbubani

毫无疑问，权力正在从西方转向东方，亚洲大国和欧洲大国的相对位置也发生了显著变化。首先，我想举一个数据：1980年，欧盟的GDP总量是中国的10倍；而今天，欧盟的GDP总量与中国相当；到2050年，欧盟的GDP总量将只有中国的一半。因此，欧盟的GDP总量从中国的10倍下降到中国的一半，这表明权力正在急剧向亚洲转移。但与此同时，美国经济表现良好，仍然是世界最大经济体。2000年，美国经济是中国的8倍；而现在，美国经济只有中国的1.5倍。所以，即使中美之间的相对关系已经发生了变化，我完全同意你的观点，美国经济与欧洲经济不同，表现良好，并且增长稳健。但如果你让我预测，到2050年，中国经济仍将超过美国经济。但是当我们讨论亚洲时，你又从中国开始，为什么你没有看到亚洲有其他强国，为什么一定是中国？嗯，你说得完全正确，实际上我相信亚洲未来的增长将来自新的中央情报局国家。中央情报局不是中央情报局的缩写，而是中国、印度和东盟。顺便说一下，东盟是东南亚国家联盟。中国、印度和东盟将成为亚洲增长的主要驱动力。你知道，如果你看看中央情报局国家有35亿人，而在2000年，这35亿人中，只有1.5亿人享受着中产阶级的生活水平。到2020年，这个数字将激增10倍，达到15亿。到2030年，在中情局国家中，可能会有25亿到30亿人享受中产阶级的生活水平。所以你可以看到，增长故事是多么的惊人，不仅限于中国，还涵盖了印度和东南亚。中国是世界上最古老的连续文明，已有4000到5000年的历史。中国与亚洲的联系至少可以追溯到2000年前。因此，沙特阿拉伯、中国和印度之间有着悠久的历史关系。可能会让你的观众或听众感到惊讶的是，在东盟十国中，东南亚国家中有9个以印度为基础，一个以汉族为基础。因此，从文化上讲，东南亚国家与印度的关系比与中国的更密切。但今天，中国在东南亚的影响力要大得多。事实上，2000年中国与东南亚的贸易额只有400亿美元，但到2020年，数字呃已经达到了 9750 亿美元，你能想象从 2000 年的 400 亿美元增加到 2022 年的 9750 亿美元吗？这太神奇了，太神奇了，这对你来说意味着什么？你不觉得这是一种支配关系，而不是友好关系吗？呃，不，你知道，呃，不像 E欧洲不知道如何管理其周边大国，我们设法与周边大国保持良好关系，你知道，我敢肯定你听说过越南，你知道越南与中国有着非常悠久的关系，顺便说一下，越南被中国占领了1000年，对吧，越南人了解中国，你知道他们在越南说什么，他们说要成为越南的领导人，你必须能够对抗中国，你必须能够与中国相处，但这在实践中意味着什么，一个小新加坡或大得多的越南，你如何看待与这个巨人的正确关系，我们有，我们有，我可以告诉你，到目前为止，良好的关系，中国的增长使东盟国家也得到了增长，让我给你另一个统计数据，在2000年，呃，日本的经济，你之前提到日本是东盟经济的八倍，现在日本只大1.3倍，到2030年，东盟将比日本大，你知道欧洲人必须明白的是，亚洲国家普遍奉行务实主义文化。我们不会高调宣扬，不会发表演讲，也不会声称要拯救世界，但我们的表现比世界上任何其他地区都要好。所以，欧洲人很难接受他们现在应该开始向亚洲学习，但实际上，现在是时候让欧洲人像亚洲国家一样务实了。因为如果欧洲不务实，欧洲的未来将非常艰难。从欧洲的角度来看，务实是什么意思？对中国来说，不仅仅是对中国，更重要的是，欧洲需要制定一个全面的长期战略，确定未来10到20年或30年欧洲面临的最大威胁和机遇。而欧洲面临的最大威胁将来自非洲的人口爆炸。1950年，非洲的人口是欧洲的一半。今天，非洲的人口是欧洲的2.5倍。到2100年，非洲人口将是欧洲的10倍。所以你们应该把战略重点放在如何发展非洲上。尽管中国在非洲的投资正在为非洲人创造就业机会，并让非洲人留在非洲，但欧洲人不但没有向中国发送感谢信，感谢中国在非洲的投资，反而和美国一起批评中国在非洲的投资，因为这违背了你们自己的利益。你们不切实际，你们牺牲了自己的利益，这很奇怪。你们为什么要这样做？亚洲人看看亚洲人，看看欧洲，然后说，100年前，这片大陆可以统治世界，对吧？我的意思是，我知道欧洲国家……波兰没有殖民任何国家，但你知道，英国人、荷兰人、……法国人，呃，比利时人殖民了世界，而今天的欧洲连自己都照顾不好，这非常非常奇怪。所以我认为欧洲人需要做的是……变得更加谦虚和谦逊，问问自己是否……在向你们学习的过程中，东盟可以学习世界其他地区的经验教训，学习如何管理事务。我仍然不明白你们如何对更大的国家，尤其是中国和印度，采取这种务实的态度。那么，你们如何融入这些国家的雄心壮志呢？印度可能与中国不同。中国已经有一段时间表现出强烈的野心，想要在该地区占据主导地位。你们如何处理这个问题？我必须强调，东盟不仅在中国和印度之间别无选择，而且与美国关系密切。让我给你们一个令人震惊的统计数据：中国经济规模远大于东盟经济。日本经济仍然大于东盟经济。韩国经济规模不大，但印度经济规模与东盟相当。你们知道吗？美国在东南亚的投资比在中国、日本、韩国和印度的投资总和还要多。这并不令人震惊。那么欧洲在哪里？为什么？美国在东南亚的投资比中国、日本、韩国和印度的总和还要多，而欧洲的投资却没有那么多，所以我的意思是，你必须了解亚洲的复杂性，我们知道如何与这些大国打交道，顺便说一下，我们与日本的关系也非常密切，你会感到惊讶，所以你必须学会??与许多不同的大国打交道的艺术，这些大国虽然彼此不同，但也要有欧洲人必须学习的那种老练和细腻，因为你用非常黑白的眼光看待这个世界，世界正在变得越来越复杂，你知道，我说世界的未来将是一个多文明、多极化、多边的世界，你知道吗？世界上最好的多文明实验室是东南亚，你可以在东南亚找到所有主要文明，但在欧洲找不到它们，欧洲只有一种文明，所以你必须进入欧洲，现在你必须改变主意，进入一个多文明的世界，你知道学习处理不同文明的最佳地点是东南亚，所以这很令人惊讶，欧洲对这个地区普遍如此无知。

Zoom the World with prof. Kishore Mahbubani

Centrum Stosunków Mi?dzynarodowych  Rise of Asia 2025年5月13日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqPTpopOG58

 

Ma?gorzata Bonikowska, PH.D.



President, President, Center for international Relations, lecture at the University of Warsaw

Specialisation: European Union, EU foreign and security policy, European global strategy

Ma?gorzata Bonikowska has a Ph.D. in humanities and she specializes in international relations (with particular emphasis on the European Union) and communication in public institutions. EU expert, government consultant and academic fellow, graduated from the Warsaw University (Italian studies), University of Paris-Sorbonne (history and political sciences) and the PWST (State College of Theatre) in culture history. Alumnus of two Ph.D. programs: in Poland (Polish Academy of Sciences) and abroad (SSSS, Italy), dr Bonikowska completed a specialization program at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at the Columbia University in New York (Fulbright Scholarship). She is the author of more than 150 publications and tutor of over 100 BA, MA and post-graduated thesis.

In this video, former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani explains why the West is fundamentally mistaken about China’s rise and intentions. He argues that many Western leaders are stuck in a Cold War mindset, failing to understand China’s unique development path and global vision. Mahbubani challenges the common Western narrative that sees China as a threat, urging instead for a more balanced and realistic view. If you want a fresh, thought-provoking perspective on China that goes beyond the usual headlines, this is a must-watch.

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Ma?gorzata Bonikowska

how would you describe this shift which is which is going on in the world？

Kishore Mahbubani

well there's no question whatsoever that power is shifting from west to east and the relative positions of Asian powers and European powers have changed significantly so let me begin with one statistic in the year 1980 the combined GMPP of the European Union was 10 times bigger than China 10 times today the European Union is about the same size as China and by 2050 European Union will be half the size of China so for the European Union to go from being 10 times bigger than China to becoming half the size of China is an indication of how power is shifting dramatically to Asia but in the same time the US economy is doing very well it is still the largest world economy well the United States economy was eight times bigger than uh the Chinese economy in the year 2000 now it is only 1.5 times bigger so even with the in the relativity between US and China has changed of course but I completely agree with you that the American economy unlike the European economy has done well and has grown solidly also but if I if you ask me to make a prediction I would say by 2050 the Chinese economy will still be bigger than the American economy but when we discuss Asia you again start with China why don't you see any other power in Asia why only has to be China well you're absolutely right actually I believe that the future growth uh in Asia is going to come from the new CIA countries uh CIA doesn't stand for Central Intelligence Agency cia stands for China India and ASEAN and China India and ASEAN asean by the way is the association of Southeast Asian nations China India ASEAN will be the main drivers of growth uh in Asia and you know if you look at the uh you know there are 3.5 billion people in the CIA countries out of these 3.5 billion people in the year 2000 there were only 150 million people enjoying middle class living standards in the year 2000 by 2020 the number had exploded 10 times to 1.5 billion and by 2030 there might be 2.5 to three billion people enjoying middle class living standards in the CIA countries so you can see how dramatically the growth story is beyond China it also covers India and Southeast Asia too uh China has been the is the world's oldest continuous civilization four to 5,000 years and China's links with Soua Asia go back at least 2,000 years so there are long historical relationships between Saudi Asia and China and by the way also with India and something that may surprise uh your your viewers or listeners uh is that among of the 10 ASEAN countries Southeast Asian countries nine have an Indic base and one has a synic base so culturally the Southeast Asian countries are closer to India than they are to China but today definitely uh China's influence in in Southeast Asia is much greater in fact the China's trade with Southeast Asia in the year 2000 was only $40 billion but by 2020 that number uh had reached $975 billion can you imagine going from $40 billion in to the year 2000 to $975 billion in actually in 2022 and that's amazing right an amazing so what does it mean for you what don't you see that that's a domination instead of friendly relationship uh no well it's you know uh unlike Europe which doesn't know how to manage its neighboring great powers we have managed to enjoy good relations with our neighboring great powers and you know I'm sure you heard of Vietnam you know Vietnam has had a very long relationship with China and and Vietnam has been by the way Vietnam was um occupied by China only for 1,000 years right the Vietnamese understand China you know what they say in Vietnam they say that to become the leader of Vietnam you must be able to stand up to China and you must What does it mean what does and you must be able to get along with China but what does it mean in practice how how a little Singapore or much larger Vietnam how you see the right relationship with this giant well we have I we have I can tell you as of now excellent relations China's growth has enabled the AEAN countries to also grow let me give you another statistic in the year 2000 uh Japan's economy you mentioned Japan earlier was eight eight times bigger than ASEAN's economy now Japan is only 1.3 times bigger by 2030 ASEAN will be bigger than Japan you know so what what what Europeans got to

understand is that there's a culture of pragmatism in among Asian countries we

don't we don't make loud statements we don't give speeches we don't claim we're

going to save the world but we just perform better than any other region in

the world so you know there the the the Europeans will find it difficult to accept the idea that they should now begin to learn lessons from Asia but actually the time has come for Europeans to learn to be as pragmatic as Asian countries because if Europe if the if Europe does not become pragmatic it will have a very difficult future ahead for Europe what do you mean to be pragmatic uh from the European side visav China oh not just visi China visi it's important for Europe to work out a comprehensive long-term strategy of what are the biggest threats and opportunities for Europe over the next 10 to 20 years or 30 years and the biggest threat to Europe is going to come from the demographic explosion in Africa right in the year 1950 Africa's population was half that of Europe today Africa's population is two and a half times the size of Europe by 2100 Africa's population will be 10 times the size of Europe so you should focus your strategic sites on how you develop Africa and here even though Chinese investment in Africa is creating jobs for Africans and keeping Africans in Africa the Europeans instead of sending a thank you note to China for saying thank you China for investing in Africa you are joining the United States in criticizing Chinese investment in Africa when it is against your own interest you're being unpragmatic you're sacrificing your own interest which is bizarre why are you

doing that and Asians look at Asians look at Europe and say this 100 years ago this continent could run the world right i mean the European countries I know

Poland didn't colonize any countries but you know the British the Dutch the

French uh the Belgians they colonize the world and today Europe can't take care

of itself which is a very very strange so I think what Europeans need to do is

to become a bit more humble and modest and ask itself whether it can learn

lessons from other parts of the world on how to manage things during this process of learning from you i still don't understand how you have this pragmatic

approach towards much bigger countries especially China but also India so in

what way you fit into the uh ambitions of these countries india maybe it's

different than China china it has been a while it's projecting very strong

ambition to dominate in the region how do you handle this well you know I must

emphasize to you that ASEAN doesn't just doesn't have choice with China and India it also has very close ties with the United States of America and one let me

give you one statistic that will shock you okay the Chinese economy much bigger

than ASEAN's economy japan's economy is still bigger than AEAN's economy south Korea is you know not not not not that big but Indian economy same size as ASEAN do you know that the United States of America has invested more in Southeast Asia than it has in China Japan South Korea and India combined h isn't that shocking so where is Europe why is the United States of America investing more in Southeast Asia than China Japan South Korea and India combined and Europe is not here so this is what I mean you got to understand the complexity of Asia we we know how to handle the giants we we have by the way also very close relations with Japan you'll be astonished so you know you must learn the art of being able to handle many different powers who are very different but with a sophistication and a delicacy that Europeans got to learn because you see the world in very black and white terms the world is becoming a much more complex world you know I I say that the future of the world will be a 3M world will be multi-vilizational multi-olar multilateral and you know what the best multi-vilizational laboratory in the world is aan Southeast Asia all the major civilizations you can find in Southeast Asia you can't find them in Europe europe only has a one civilization so you got to enter Europe has now got to change his mind and enter a multi-ivilizational world and and you know what the best place to learn to handle different civilizations is Southeast Asia so this is quite amazing how ignorant uh Europe is in general about this region