Howard Marks Headshot
Trends in investor psychology are impossible to predict, and no one should ever think they know what will happen in that regard. The pundits didn’t expect much in terms of stock market returns in 2023 or 2024, and they got barnburners. Investors tend to turn more optimistic after a couple of good years, and that could happen here. But, while positive sentiment could support the markets for a while, every year of double-digit stock market returns increases the probability that gravity will prevail eventually. I certainly have no idea whether 2025 will be the year in which it does so.
As you know, the bottom line for me continues to be that non-investment grade credit currently represents a better risk/return deal than the S&P 500. Other markets and sectors may be lower-priced than the S&P, but the latter continues to be treated as a riskless default solution.
As 2025 begins, I think it’s incumbent upon investors in the U.S. to take note of the following combination of factors:
an extended economic recovery,
the general predominance of optimism,
above average equity valuations,
below average risk premiums,
a poorly functioning governmental/fiscal mechanism, and
substantial geopolitical uncertainty.
I am far from ringing a general alarm bell, but investors who believe in adjusting their risk posture in response to prevailing conditions might choose at this point to somewhat emphasize defensiveness over aggressiveness. Increased allocations toward lending strategies and away from ownership strategies can play a significant part in this.
