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July-August pullback scenarios:
Ideal case 50% probability: end by August 24-25. Drawdowns SPY 4-5%; QQQ 6-7%; FNGS 9-10%.
Bad case 20% probability: end by September 14-15. Drawdowns SPY 6-7%; QQQ 8-10%; FNGS 12-13%.
Worse case 15% probability: end by October 12-13. Drawdowns SPY 8-10%; QQQ 14-15%; FNGS 16-18%.
Worst case 5% probability: sink into bear market again.
Ideal case 50% probability: end by August 24-25. Drawdowns SPY 4-5%; QQQ 6-7%; FNGS 9-10%.
Bad case 20% probability: end by September 14-15. Drawdowns SPY 6-7%; QQQ 8-10%; FNGS 12-13%.
Worse case 15% probability: end by October 12-13. Drawdowns SPY 8-10%; QQQ 14-15%; FNGS 16-18%.
Worst case 5% probability: sink into bear market again.
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