脱欧随想三:经济冲击

笨狼 (2016-06-29 09:42:11) 评论 (1)
《英脱欧公投随想之三》
 
脱欧肯定会给英国经济带来冲击。
 
最主要的,不是前两天股市暴跌,这两天股市巨幅反弹,而是我在我不活,你也得死:脱欧的现实一文里说的,不定因素太多,大家都按兵不动,资金、投资都没了,百姓消费也有担忧,自然对经济是个冲击。
 
法拉奇在欧盟羞辱其它议员
 
 
这只是经济上的影响,政治上,就说不清了,只多不少。你英国人有气,说脱就脱,咱大陆人就得忍着、让着,随你来?
 
默克尔:英国最大的盟友,说“出入有别,没法挑三拣四“
 
不过英国人跟世界其他地方的人一般,对此的感觉是隐隐约约,因为没发生,不觉得是一回事儿,脑子里占据的是其他“大事儿”,只能等来了再说了。
 
《商业内幕(Business Insider)》总结
ANALYSTS: Brexit will bring recession ... and contagion
世界大投行的经济学家基本一致预料脱欧会导致经济萧条。
 
Morgan Stanley
小摩
 
《福布斯杂志》Brexit Aftermath: Goldman Sachs Predicts U.K. Will Enter A 'Mild Recession' In 2017
 
《留声机网站Vox》How bad will Brexit get? Here's what top economists are saying
John Van Reenen: "There will be an immediate slowdown of growth"
Larry Summers: "The effects on the rest of the world will depend heavily on psychology"我说只能糟糕
Paul Krugman: Yes, Brexit will make Britain poorer. It’s hard to put a number on the trade effects of leaving the EU, but it will be substantial. True, normal WTO tariffs (the tariffs members of the World Trade Organization, like Britain, the US, and the EU levy on each others’ exports) are low and other traditional restraints on trade relatively mild. But everything we’ve seen in both Europe and North America suggests that the assurance of market access has a big effect in encouraging long-term investments aimed at selling across borders; revoking that assurance will, over time, erode trade even if there isn’t any kind of trade war. And Britain will become less productive as a result
Scott Sumner: "The ultimate effect depends ENTIRELY on how the central banks react",胡诌
Capital Economics: "Brexit is not a disaster for the world economy",也许,疼痛是难免了吧?
标普研究:对dou投资的不良影响
 
 
《英国独立报》When will the British economy fall into recession following the Brexit vote?
《彭博》Victims of Brexit’s Real-Time Recession Already Feeling the Pain
 
脱欧的后果谁也说不清,这是个小例子:
How Brexit threatens one of Britain’s biggest perks
很多欧盟法定的福利再也见不到了。
 
IMF says EU exit 'largest near-term risk' to British economy
OECD: A Brexit would wreck the UK economy — and take Europe down with it
 
汇丰银行就脱欧对英国行业影响的统计:
HSBC trade chart
 
《金融时报》总结几个专家智库的预算:
Brexit: what is in store for the UK economy?
Forecasts for the path of UK GDP post-Brexit
 
民意说经济不是主题,挺好,理想为重。
 
此文的作者挤哒脱欧阵对脱欧后英国经济百利而少害的“妄想”
The magical thinking of America's pro-Brexit conservatives
To make these post-Brexit growth arguments sound even remotely plausible, the free-market Brexiteers had to paint an overly gloomy view of the U.K. Because without the possibility of a tremendous upside, Brexit would never have been worth the risk of severe instability.
 
 
读读我在此题的其他博文:
脱欧随想一:美国政局
脱欧随想二:英国政坛地震
脱欧随想四:英国的筹码
脱欧随想五:克林顿的警告
脱欧随想六:对中国的影响
脱欧随想七:信念的破灭
脱欧随想八:中文媒体的反应
脱欧随想九:欧盟那团苦水
 
我不活,你也得死:脱欧的现实