以下内容为新加坡眼根据英文翻译整理：
尊敬的各位来宾，
女士们、先生们，
大家早上好！
我非常高兴能够参加今年的2025年新加坡海事周。今年的海事周正值环境日益动荡之际。全球产业以及新加坡本国的海事部门都必须积极为未来做好准备。
以贸易为增长驱动力
在过去的六十年里，随着世界的全球化，新加坡这个小而开放的经济体蓬勃发展。我们曾生活在一个总体和平与稳定的世界中。全球秩序由美国主导，并得到其在欧洲和亚洲盟友的支持。多边机构得以建立——包括联合国、国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及世界贸易组织（WTO）。
国际法律和条约也在协商与采纳之中，其中包括《联合国海洋法公约》（UNCLOS）。无论大国还是小国普遍承认这些国际规则和准则，他们都认识到经济自由化与更自由的贸易将使所有人受益。
许多国家根据这一理解采取行动并获得成果，包括像新加坡这样的小经济体以及像美国和中国这样的大国。跨国公司在发展中国家的投资拓宽了出口市场，并促进了经济增长。国际贸易蓬勃发展，全球海事产业也随之壮大。
总体而言，世界经济也因此受益，因为更自由的贸易促进了更精细的全球分工、更整合的供应链以及全方位更高的效率。
新加坡抓住了这些机遇，并充分利用了它们。我们进行了投资并实施了政策，打造了一个开放、可靠且备受信赖的贸易与海事枢纽。我们成为了全球供应链中的关键环节，也成为东西方之间的重要门户。
海上风浪将至
但如今的世界已大不相同。对贸易的态度已发生变化，贸易流向的模式也在转变。
首先，地缘政治的发展正在严重冲击全球贸易体系。
在过去十多年里，大国之间的紧张关系不断加剧。各国越来越担心被对手超越，开始把安全、韧性和自给自足置于相互依存和合作之上。曾经为了经济效率而优化的供应链，如今正通过“友岸外包”（friendshoring）、“近岸外包”以及“回岸”重新配置。
为保持领先优势或阻止竞争对手获得双用途产品和技术，各国对投资、半导体、关键矿产和数据等领域实施了限制。一些大国采取了更具交易性，有时甚至带有强制性的方式来实现即时目标，而对那些更间接和长期的利益则不再给予足够重视。
这些结构性转变在近几个月里进一步加速。美国新政府认为，在过去的体制下，“美国无论面对友邦还是对手，在贸易上都受到了不公平的对待”——这句话正好道出了他们的观点，远非以往国际贸易、投资或多边协议所提倡的双赢模式。美国不仅将关税视为首选的经济工具，还将其作为在非经济领域进行讨价还价的筹码，以维护其整体国家利益。其他国家也纷纷作出了相应的回应。
这些战略性政策转变正在重新塑造全球贸易的格局。保护主义和经济分裂现象日益抬头。海事行业本身也受到直接影响，各国纷纷采取措施减少对竞争对手在货运和造船领域的依赖，或试图取代控制战略性港口的竞争者。
与此同时，第二个强大力量正在悄然影响全球贸易模式，那就是气候变化。气候变化和极端天气事件已经在影响着既定的贸易航线。干旱使巴拿马运河供应的水库水位下降，从而增加了航运成本，并给寻求通行的船只带来不确定性。由于北极冰层融化，新航道——例如东北航道——正在开启。作为重要的排放源，海事行业正面临着减少碳排放的压力。
国际航运业大约占所有温室气体排放的3%——与全球航空业大致相当。因此，业界正积极寻求脱碳之道——通过使用更环保的燃料和开发更高效的船舶。除了绿色技术之外，贸易模式也可能会发生变化，以考虑航运碳排放对环境的影响。无论这种转变是通过燃料碳税还是碳边境调节税实现，其结果都将是重新调整现有的供应链和贸易航线。
对新加坡意味着什么
这些全球性的变化将对新加坡产生重大影响。对我们来说，贸易事关生存，而海事行业则是推动我们经济的重要力量。尽管贸易面临严峻挑战，但全球化不太可能完全逆转。
尽管当前存在种种挑战，世界依然需要贸易，各国也仍需相互往来，这一点在新冠疫情期间得到了印证。对一些国家来说，这关乎生存。全球大约四分之一的粮食产量通过国际贸易流通；全球超过80%的人口生活在作为粮食净进口国的国家中，其中就包括新加坡。
没有贸易，这些国家将面临饥荒。对许多其他国家而言，贸易仍然是繁荣的重要驱动力。贸易推动了国际分工，创造了效率和规模经济。没有任何一个国家能够单独生产出现代汽车、飞机或手机——这些产品通常都依赖来自海外、甚至是多个国家的原材料和零部件。
直到2008年的全球金融危机（GFC）之前，国际贸易的增长速度一直快于全球GDP的增长。上世纪50年代，国际贸易额约占全球GDP的15%。到了全球金融危机时期，这一比例已增加至55%以上。这正是各国维持经济增长、提高生产力并不断改善民众生活的重要方式。
全球金融危机成为了一个转折点。危机之后，全球化步伐放缓，世界贸易的增长不再超过全球GDP的增长。尽管面临逆风，国际贸易整体上仍保持在全球GDP的55%左右。因此，在全球金融危机后的一年半十年间，世界贸易持续增长，去年更创下了33万亿美元的历史新高。
但这一时刻可能证明是另一个转折点。鉴于战略紧张局势加剧和政策不确定性，我们不能假设全球贸易将继续与GDP保持同步增长。如果贸易与GDP的比率开始下降，将产生严重的经济和战略影响。
至少，这将抑制许多国家的经济增长，进而引发国内外更多的社会和政治问题。在这种情况下，世界将真正进入一个自第二次世界大战以来未曾见过的新纪元。当然，我们的希望是，无论未来存在多少不确定性和动荡，世界贸易都能继续增长。不仅是为了维持海事产业，更是为了让全球人民享有更高效、更富裕的生活。
因此，新加坡的任务是：一、尽我们所能推动和促进国际贸易的增长；二、让我们的经济和海事产业变得更加高效、更具竞争力、更值得信赖。这样，无论世界如何变化，其他国家仍会愿意在此开展贸易和商业活动，而我们也能继续谋生。
如何实现这一目标？
保障我们海事产业的未来 维护开放经济；加强贸易联结
首先，我们承诺保持开放。由于我们国土狭小，没有其他选择。但我们并不孤单。即便在全球化退潮的今天，许多国家依然认为贸易可以实现双赢，并希望尽可能保留多边贸易带来的好处。
毫无疑问，这是欧盟成员国和英国的共同看法。在我们的区域内，澳大利亚、韩国、日本、中国、印度以及东盟等国家也都抱有同样期望。许多非洲和拉丁美洲国家也从中受益，并支持世界贸易组织的出色工作。因此，志同道合的伙伴们完全可以携手共进，在混乱的世界中维持一方稳定绿洲。
新加坡将继续支持基于多边规则的秩序、国际合作和相互依赖。我们在独立后不久便加入了国际海事组织（IMO），最初作为成员国，1993年起又成为其理事会成员。在上世纪70年代和80年代，我们积极参与了促成《联合国海洋法公约》的谈判。
汤米·柯大使曾自1981年起担任第三届联合国海洋法会议主席，直至会议成功闭幕。最近，我们主办了国际海事辅助导航组织（IALA）的首届大会，该大会通过了“新加坡宣言”，以推动全球海上航行安全的发展。
除了多边框架外，我们还积极推动众多区域及双边贸易伙伴关系。我们已建立起包括27个自由贸易协定在内的广泛网络，这些协定合计覆盖了90%的贸易。这不仅强化了我们的贸易枢纽地位，也促进了经济增长。我们将继续扩大这一网络。
近年来，我们加入了《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）、《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）以及《印太经济框架》（IPEF）。其中，RCEP主要涵盖太平洋西部的国家，包括中国、日本、韩国和东盟国家；CPTPP横跨东太平洋——虽然美国选择不参与，但加拿大、墨西哥、智利、秘鲁等国都在其中；而IPEF则由美国拜登政府推出，我们希望它能在未来继续存在。
最近几年，我们分别于2022年与太平洋联盟、2023年与南方共同市场签署了自由贸易协定。在可持续发展和技术领域，我们正与关键伙伴协商绿色经济协议和数字经济协议，并与多个国家及港口合作推进绿色与数字航运走廊。目前，我们已有六项此类协议，旨在加快港口通关、促进新燃料的供应与部署，并制定统一标准。
新加坡企业也在跨越国界，加强贸易和供应链联结。例如，新加坡港务集团（PSA International）运营着全球多个港口，不断创新服务，实现货物流经多个港口的无缝对接，并为供应链增值。
这正是新加坡没有远离贸易和伙伴关系，而是更加致力于保持开放的重要原因。
巩固我们作为区域枢纽和全球节点的地位
其次，我们将继续加强自身作为区域枢纽和全球节点的地位。现代新加坡之所以能够成长和繁荣，是因为我们曾作为东方的集散地和大型商贸中心。到了1960年代，区域贸易逐渐衰退，新加坡开始推行工业化以替代这些职位并促进经济增长。
但即便如此，我们依然看好海事产业的潜力。一个高效、现代化的港口可以帮助我们日益增长的出口货物走向世界市场；而我们也可以成为不仅服务于东南亚邻国，更面向更广泛的亚太地区，甚至延伸至南亚的中转港。
因此，我们建立了一个完整的生态系统来支持海事产业——包括港口、船运公司、造船厂、加油服务以及法律服务。
我们稳步投资于港口基础设施建设。1969年，在集装箱化刚刚起步的早期，我们决定在丹戎巴葛建造东南亚首个集装箱码头。随着亚太地区的繁荣和贸易量的增长，我们提前大手笔投资新港口码头。
如今，新加坡已成为世界上最繁忙的港口之一，任何时候都有超过1,000艘船只在港。海事部门对我们GDP的贡献超过6%，并创造了约14万个就业机会。
展望未来，我们将继续发展海事产业，投资于能力建设和基础设施。我们正在建设大士港——这是一个雄心勃勃的、历时数十年的项目，旨在将我们所有的集装箱码头整合到一个地点。预计在2040年代完工时，大士港年处理能力将达到6,500万个标准箱。
我们还在投资于科技与创新，正在开发一个由人工智能支持的新一代船舶交通管理系统，以提高港口运营的安全性和效率。正如您从律政部政务部长穆仁理先生处了解到的，我们正在推出新加坡港口及海事生态系统的数字孪生平台。正如穆仁理部长所解释的，这将帮助我们进一步改善港口运营和服务。
我们通过政府、业界和工会之间的三方紧密合作来实现这一切，我们决心让我们的工人从新技术和投资中受益。实际上，我们的港务工会、港口官员工会和海事官员工会的代表都出席了本次会议，参与讨论。
我们的工人必须准备好承担新的、更具生产力的角色，而不是被技术或人工智能边缘化或取代。因此，我们也在大力投资于人才培养，提升他们操作新的人工智能和数字系统以及遥控岸桥、无人机、水下机器人等先进技术的技能。在高层管理方面，我们通过领导力计划不断培养海事专业人才。有了这种支持，我们的人民将会拥抱并充分利用科技，而非抗拒它，从而保障新加坡的竞争力和他们自己的生计。
应对气候变化及适应其影响作出贡献
第三，新加坡将尽自己的一份力来缓解气候变化，同时适应其对我们的影响。自2013年以来，我们一直是北极理事会的观察员国。我们支持理事会在科学研究、可持续发展和绿色航运方面的工作。
新加坡已承诺在2030年前达到排放峰值，并在2050年前实现净零排放。对于一个几乎没有自己可用能源（无论是可再生能源还是化石能源）的岛国来说，这是一项极其艰巨的任务，但作为国际社会负责任的一员，我们必将贡献力量。
在海事产业方面，我们正在投资于绿色技术，助力产业实现脱碳转型。今天，我们是加油及石油炼制的中心；未来，随着替代燃料的研发和应用，我们的海运线路和基础设施很可能成为其运输和分配的重要通道。
正如穆仁理部长所解释的，我们正在进行替代燃料加油的试验，这将为制定国家和国际标准提供支持。我们也在逐步培训工人，以便他们能处理替代燃料，为其广泛采用做好准备。
这就是我们在应对气候变化的同时，为全球海事贸易不可避免的长期趋势做出的准备。
结束语
世界无法逃避未来动荡的时代，但海事产业的前景依然光明。如果我们提前规划、采取正确措施，我们就有充分的机会继续繁荣。正如李光耀先生在60多年前于新加坡港务局所言，“人生中美好的事物不会从天而降，唯有经过长期的艰苦努力方能实现。”我们可以共同将逆境转化为机遇。
在此，我欢迎各位与我们携手合作，共同把握这些机遇，为建设一个更好、更光明的海事未来而投资奋斗。
非常感谢大家。
Adversity into Opportunity: Staying Ahead in a Troubled World
24 March 2025， Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered the Singapore Maritime Lecture at the opening of Singapore Maritime Week.
Mr Murali Pillai, Minister of State, Ministry of Law and Ministry of Transport
Excellencies
Distinguished Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen
A very good morning to everybody
I am delighted to join you for this year’s Singapore Maritime Week 2025. This year, the Maritime Week takes place amidst an increasingly turbulent environment. The global industry, and Singapore’s own maritime sector, will need to actively prepare for what lies ahead.
Singapore rode these waves, and made the most of them. We made investments and implemented policies to build an open, reliable, and trusted trade and maritime hub. We became a key link in global supply chains, a gateway between East and West
First, geopolitical developments are severely straining the global trade system.
Over the past decade plus, tensions between the major powers have intensified. Countries have become increasingly anxious to stay ahead of one another. They are prioritising security, resilience and self-reliance, over interdependence and co-operation. Supply chains — once optimised for economic efficiency — are being reconfigured through friend-shoring, near-shoring, and re-shoring. Restrictions have been imposed – on investments, semiconductors, critical minerals, data – to preserve leads over competitors, or to deny rivals dual-use products and technology. Some big powers are adopting a more transactional, sometimes coercive, approach to achieve immediate objectives; and giving less weight to more indirect and longer-term benefits.
These structural shifts have accelerated in recent months. A new administration in the US believes that under the previous system, "the US has been treated unfairly by its trading partners, both friend and foe", to quote their words — far from the erstwhile win-win view of international trade, investments, or multilateral agreements. It treats tariffs not only as a preferred economic instrument, but also as bargaining leverage in non-economic domains, to protect its overall national interests. Other countries have responded in kind.
These strategic policy shifts are re-shaping the landscape of world trade. Protectionism and economic bifurcation are rising. The maritime industry is itself directly affected, with countries acting to reduce reliance on competitors for freight shipping and ship-building, or to displace rivals controlling strategically located ports.
Meanwhile, a second powerful force is quietly impacting global trade patterns, and that is climate change. Climate change and extreme weather events are already affecting established trade routes. Droughts have lowered water levels in the reservoirs supplying the Panama Canal, raising costs and creating uncertainty for vessels seeking passage. New routes — such as the Northeast Passage — are opening up due to the melting Arctic ice. As a significant emitter, the maritime industry is under pressure to reduce carbon emissions. International shipping accounts for about 3% of all greenhouse gas emissions — roughly as much as global aviation. The industry is therefore actively seeking ways to decarbonise — by using greener fuels, and developing more efficient ships. Beyond green technologies, patterns of trade are likely to shift, to account for the environmental impact of carbon emissions from shipping. Whether this happens through carbon taxes on fuel or carbon border adjustment taxes, the result will be to reorient existing supply chains and trade routes.
Despite all the current challenges, the world still needs to trade, and countries still need to do business with one another, as we were reminded during Covid-19. For some, this is a matter of survival. About a quarter of global food production is traded internationally. More than 80% of the world’s population live in countries that are net importers of food, including Singapore. Without trade, these countries would simply starve. For many others, trade remains a crucial driver of prosperity. Trade enables the international division of labour and creates efficiencies and economies of scale. No country can produce on its own; a modern car, aeroplane, or handphone, without relying on materials and components from abroad, usually from many countries.
For decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, international trade grew faster than world GDP. In the 1950s, international trade was around 15% of world GDP. By the time of the Global Financial Crisis, this had more than tripled — to 55%. This was how countries around the world sustained economic growth and productivity gains, and steadily improved their peoples’ lives.
The GFC was a turning point. After the GFC, globalisation slowed. World trade stopped growing faster than world GDP. But despite the headwinds, international trade still generally kept pace, staying at 55% of world GDP. And thus in the decade and a half since the GFC, world trade continued to rise, reaching a record US$33 trillion last year.
And thus Singapore’s task is to: i) do our part to enable and foster the growth of international trade; ii) to make our economy, and our maritime industry, more efficient, more competitive, more trusted. So that whatever the state of the world, others will still want to trade here; to do business here. And we can continue to make a living for ourselves.
How?
First, we are committed to staying open. Being so small, we have no choice. But we are not alone. Even with globalisation in retreat, many countries still believe that trade can be a win-win proposition, and still want to preserve as much of the benefits of the multilateral trade as possible. Certainly, this is the view of European Union members and the UK. In our region, Australia, South Korea, Japan, China, India and the ASEAN group, among others, all want this too. And many African and Latin American countries benefit from and support the good work of the World Trade Organization. Therefore, like-minded partners can definitely work together, to preserve oases of stability amid a world of chaos.
Singapore will continue to support a multilateral rules-based order, international co-operation and interdependence. We joined the International Maritime Organization (IMO) almost as soon as we became independent. First as a member state, and then since 1993 as a council member. In the 70s and 80s, we were active in the negotiations that resulted in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Ambassador Tommy Koh served as President of the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea from 1981 until its successful conclusion. Recently, we hosted the inaugural General Assembly of the International Organization for Marine Aids to Navigation, or IALA, which adopted the "Singapore Declaration" to advance global maritime navigational safety.
Beyond multilateral frameworks, we pursue many regional and bilateral trade partnerships and arrangements. We have built an extensive network of 27 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which collectively cover 90% of our trade. These have strengthened our trading hub, and contributed to our economic growth. We continue to expand this network. In recent years we joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). The RCEP is mainly on the west of the Pacific, including China, Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN countries. The CPTPP spans the Eastern Pacific — the Americans decided not to participate but Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru are there. The IPEF, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, was launched by the Biden administration in the US, and we hope that in some way, it will continue to exist. Most recently, we signed FTAs with the Pacific Alliance (2022), and MERCOSUR (2023)1 in the last few years. In the fields of sustainability and technology, we are negotiating Green Economy Agreements and Digital Economy Agreements with key partners. We are also working on Green and Digital Shipping Corridors with many countries and ports. We have six of these agreements - to expedite port clearances, promote the supply and deployment of new fuels, and define common standards.
Singaporean companies too, are working across borders to strengthen trade and supply chain linkages. For example, PSA International operates a network of ports around the world. It is innovating its services, to enable cargo to flow seamlessly across these multiple PSA ports, and to add more value to the supply chain.
This is how, instead of turning away from trade and partnerships, Singapore is doubling down on staying open.
Securing our status as a regional hub and global node
Secondly, we will continue to strengthen ourselves as a regional hub and global node. Modern Singapore had grown and prospered by being an entrepot, an emporium of the orient. By the 1960s, this regional trade was in decline. Singapore embarked on an industrialisation drive to replace those jobs and grow our economy. But even then, we continued to see potential in the maritime industry. An efficient, modern port would help our growing exports reach world markets. And we could also become a transshipment port not just for our immediate neighbours in Southeast Asia, but for a much wider Asia Pacific region, even extending to South Asia. Therefore, we built up a whole ecosystem to support the maritime industry — the port, the shipping lines, the shipyards, the bunkering services, the legal services.
We steadily invested in port infrastructure. In 1969, in the very early days of containerisation, we decided to build a container terminal at Tanjong Pagar — Southeast Asia’s first. As the Asia Pacific prospered, and trade volumes grew, we made major investments ahead of time in new port terminals. And today, Singapore is one of the busiest ports in the world, with more than 1,000 vessels in port at any one time. The maritime sector contributes to over 6% of our GDP and about 140,000 jobs.
Looking ahead, we will continue to build up the maritime industry, and to invest in capabilities and infrastructure. We are now building Tuas Port — an ambitious, multi-decade project that will consolidate all our container terminals into a single location. When completed in the 2040s, Tuas Port will have a handling capacity of 65 million TEUs annually. We are investing in technology and innovation. We are developing an AI-enabled Next Generation Vessel Traffic Management System, to improve the safety and efficiency of port operations. And as you heard from MOS Pillai, we are launching the Digital Twin for the Singapore port and maritime ecosystem. And as MOS Pillai has explained, it will help us further improve port operations and services.
We are doing all this through a strong tripartite partnership between the Government, industry, and unions. And we are determined that our workers will benefit from the new technology and investments. And indeed, our Port Workers’ Union, Port Officers’ Union and Maritime Officers’ Union are represented and attending this conference, participating in the deliberations. Our workers must be prepared to take on new and more productive roles, and not be sidelined or displaced by technology or AI. Therefore, we are also investing heavily in our people. We are upskilling them to operate new AI and digital systems, and advanced technologies such as remote quay cranes, drones, underwater robots. At the upper echelons, we continue to develop maritime professionals through leadership programmes. With this support, our people will embrace and make full use of technology, instead of resisting it and jeopardising both Singapore’s competitiveness and their own livelihoods.
Contributing to the fight against climate change, and adapting to it
Thirdly, Singapore will play our part in mitigating climate change, even as we adapt to its impact upon us. Since 2013, we have been an observer state in the Arctic Council. We support the Council’s work on scientific research, on sustainable development, and green shipping. Singapore has committed to peaking emissions before 2030, and to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This is an extremely difficult task, for an island nation with hardly any energy sources of our own — whether renewable or fossil. But we will do our share as a responsible member of the international community.
And in the maritime industry, we are investing in green technologies, to play a role in the industry’s decarbonisation transition. Today we are a centre for bunkering and petroleum refining. In future, as alternative fuels are developed and come into use, our sea lines and infrastructure will most probably become key conduits for their transportation and distribution. As MOS Pillai explained, we are conducting trials on the bunkering of alternative fuels, which will support the setting of national and international standards. We are also progressively training our workers to handle alternative fuels, to prepare for their widespread adoption.
This is how we are responding to climate change, while preparing for the inevitable long-term trends that are in store for the global maritime trade.
And I welcome all of you here to work with us to seize these opportunities, as we invest for a better, brighter maritime future.
Thank you very much.
[1] Singapore signed the Pacific Alliance-Singapore FTA (PASFTA) with Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in Jan 22, our first FTA with a Maritime Chapter. Singapore signed the Mercosur-Singapore FTA (MCSFTA) on 8 Dec 23, our first FTA with MERCOSUR member states (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay).
Topics: Trade , Transport
Excellencies
Distinguished Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen
A very good morning to everybody
I am delighted to join you for this year’s Singapore Maritime Week 2025. This year, the Maritime Week takes place amidst an increasingly turbulent environment. The global industry, and Singapore’s own maritime sector, will need to actively prepare for what lies ahead.
Trade as a driver of growth
As the world globalised over the last six decades, Singapore’s small, open economy flourished. We lived in a generally peaceful and stable world. The global order was underwritten by the United States, supported by its allies in Europe and Asia. Multilateral institutions were established — the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). International laws and treaties were negotiated and adopted, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Countries big and small generally acknowledged these international rules and norms. They understood that economic liberalisation and freer trade would benefit everyone. Many countries acted on this understanding and reaped the benefits, including small economies like Singapore and huge ones like the United States and China. Investments by MNCs in developing countries opened up export markets, and fostered economic growth. International trade boomed, and the global maritime industry grew with it. Collectively the world economy benefited too, as freer trade promoted finer global division of labour, more integrated supply chains, and greater efficiencies all-round.Singapore rode these waves, and made the most of them. We made investments and implemented policies to build an open, reliable, and trusted trade and maritime hub. We became a key link in global supply chains, a gateway between East and West
Choppy waters ahead
But it is a different world today. Attitudes towards trade have changed. Patterns of trade flows are shifting too.First, geopolitical developments are severely straining the global trade system.
Over the past decade plus, tensions between the major powers have intensified. Countries have become increasingly anxious to stay ahead of one another. They are prioritising security, resilience and self-reliance, over interdependence and co-operation. Supply chains — once optimised for economic efficiency — are being reconfigured through friend-shoring, near-shoring, and re-shoring. Restrictions have been imposed – on investments, semiconductors, critical minerals, data – to preserve leads over competitors, or to deny rivals dual-use products and technology. Some big powers are adopting a more transactional, sometimes coercive, approach to achieve immediate objectives; and giving less weight to more indirect and longer-term benefits.
These structural shifts have accelerated in recent months. A new administration in the US believes that under the previous system, "the US has been treated unfairly by its trading partners, both friend and foe", to quote their words — far from the erstwhile win-win view of international trade, investments, or multilateral agreements. It treats tariffs not only as a preferred economic instrument, but also as bargaining leverage in non-economic domains, to protect its overall national interests. Other countries have responded in kind.
These strategic policy shifts are re-shaping the landscape of world trade. Protectionism and economic bifurcation are rising. The maritime industry is itself directly affected, with countries acting to reduce reliance on competitors for freight shipping and ship-building, or to displace rivals controlling strategically located ports.
Meanwhile, a second powerful force is quietly impacting global trade patterns, and that is climate change. Climate change and extreme weather events are already affecting established trade routes. Droughts have lowered water levels in the reservoirs supplying the Panama Canal, raising costs and creating uncertainty for vessels seeking passage. New routes — such as the Northeast Passage — are opening up due to the melting Arctic ice. As a significant emitter, the maritime industry is under pressure to reduce carbon emissions. International shipping accounts for about 3% of all greenhouse gas emissions — roughly as much as global aviation. The industry is therefore actively seeking ways to decarbonise — by using greener fuels, and developing more efficient ships. Beyond green technologies, patterns of trade are likely to shift, to account for the environmental impact of carbon emissions from shipping. Whether this happens through carbon taxes on fuel or carbon border adjustment taxes, the result will be to reorient existing supply chains and trade routes.
What these mean for Singapore
These global shifts will have a major impact on Singapore. Because to us, trade is existential, and the maritime industry is a major contributor to our economy. But while trade faces significant headwinds, globalisation is unlikely to completely reverse itself.Despite all the current challenges, the world still needs to trade, and countries still need to do business with one another, as we were reminded during Covid-19. For some, this is a matter of survival. About a quarter of global food production is traded internationally. More than 80% of the world’s population live in countries that are net importers of food, including Singapore. Without trade, these countries would simply starve. For many others, trade remains a crucial driver of prosperity. Trade enables the international division of labour and creates efficiencies and economies of scale. No country can produce on its own; a modern car, aeroplane, or handphone, without relying on materials and components from abroad, usually from many countries.
For decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, international trade grew faster than world GDP. In the 1950s, international trade was around 15% of world GDP. By the time of the Global Financial Crisis, this had more than tripled — to 55%. This was how countries around the world sustained economic growth and productivity gains, and steadily improved their peoples’ lives.
The GFC was a turning point. After the GFC, globalisation slowed. World trade stopped growing faster than world GDP. But despite the headwinds, international trade still generally kept pace, staying at 55% of world GDP. And thus in the decade and a half since the GFC, world trade continued to rise, reaching a record US$33 trillion last year.
But this present moment could prove to be another turning point. Given the heightened strategic tensions and policy uncertainty, we cannot assume that global trade will continue to keep pace with GDP. If the trade-to-GDP ratio starts to fall, there will be serious economic and strategic implications. At the least, it will dampen economic growth in many countries. Which will cause further social and political problems, both domestically and internationally. In that event, the world would truly enter a new epoch, which it has not seen since the Second World War. Naturally, our hope is that whatever the uncertainties and turbulence ahead, world trade will continue to grow. Not just to sustain the maritime industry, but to enable more productive and prosperous lives for the peoples of the world
And thus Singapore’s task is to: i) do our part to enable and foster the growth of international trade; ii) to make our economy, and our maritime industry, more efficient, more competitive, more trusted. So that whatever the state of the world, others will still want to trade here; to do business here. And we can continue to make a living for ourselves.
How?
Securing our maritime industry’s future
Maintaining an open economy; strengthening trade linkagesFirst, we are committed to staying open. Being so small, we have no choice. But we are not alone. Even with globalisation in retreat, many countries still believe that trade can be a win-win proposition, and still want to preserve as much of the benefits of the multilateral trade as possible. Certainly, this is the view of European Union members and the UK. In our region, Australia, South Korea, Japan, China, India and the ASEAN group, among others, all want this too. And many African and Latin American countries benefit from and support the good work of the World Trade Organization. Therefore, like-minded partners can definitely work together, to preserve oases of stability amid a world of chaos.
Singapore will continue to support a multilateral rules-based order, international co-operation and interdependence. We joined the International Maritime Organization (IMO) almost as soon as we became independent. First as a member state, and then since 1993 as a council member. In the 70s and 80s, we were active in the negotiations that resulted in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Ambassador Tommy Koh served as President of the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea from 1981 until its successful conclusion. Recently, we hosted the inaugural General Assembly of the International Organization for Marine Aids to Navigation, or IALA, which adopted the "Singapore Declaration" to advance global maritime navigational safety.
Beyond multilateral frameworks, we pursue many regional and bilateral trade partnerships and arrangements. We have built an extensive network of 27 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which collectively cover 90% of our trade. These have strengthened our trading hub, and contributed to our economic growth. We continue to expand this network. In recent years we joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). The RCEP is mainly on the west of the Pacific, including China, Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN countries. The CPTPP spans the Eastern Pacific — the Americans decided not to participate but Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru are there. The IPEF, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, was launched by the Biden administration in the US, and we hope that in some way, it will continue to exist. Most recently, we signed FTAs with the Pacific Alliance (2022), and MERCOSUR (2023)1 in the last few years. In the fields of sustainability and technology, we are negotiating Green Economy Agreements and Digital Economy Agreements with key partners. We are also working on Green and Digital Shipping Corridors with many countries and ports. We have six of these agreements - to expedite port clearances, promote the supply and deployment of new fuels, and define common standards.
Singaporean companies too, are working across borders to strengthen trade and supply chain linkages. For example, PSA International operates a network of ports around the world. It is innovating its services, to enable cargo to flow seamlessly across these multiple PSA ports, and to add more value to the supply chain.
This is how, instead of turning away from trade and partnerships, Singapore is doubling down on staying open.
Securing our status as a regional hub and global node
Secondly, we will continue to strengthen ourselves as a regional hub and global node. Modern Singapore had grown and prospered by being an entrepot, an emporium of the orient. By the 1960s, this regional trade was in decline. Singapore embarked on an industrialisation drive to replace those jobs and grow our economy. But even then, we continued to see potential in the maritime industry. An efficient, modern port would help our growing exports reach world markets. And we could also become a transshipment port not just for our immediate neighbours in Southeast Asia, but for a much wider Asia Pacific region, even extending to South Asia. Therefore, we built up a whole ecosystem to support the maritime industry — the port, the shipping lines, the shipyards, the bunkering services, the legal services.
We steadily invested in port infrastructure. In 1969, in the very early days of containerisation, we decided to build a container terminal at Tanjong Pagar — Southeast Asia’s first. As the Asia Pacific prospered, and trade volumes grew, we made major investments ahead of time in new port terminals. And today, Singapore is one of the busiest ports in the world, with more than 1,000 vessels in port at any one time. The maritime sector contributes to over 6% of our GDP and about 140,000 jobs.
Looking ahead, we will continue to build up the maritime industry, and to invest in capabilities and infrastructure. We are now building Tuas Port — an ambitious, multi-decade project that will consolidate all our container terminals into a single location. When completed in the 2040s, Tuas Port will have a handling capacity of 65 million TEUs annually. We are investing in technology and innovation. We are developing an AI-enabled Next Generation Vessel Traffic Management System, to improve the safety and efficiency of port operations. And as you heard from MOS Pillai, we are launching the Digital Twin for the Singapore port and maritime ecosystem. And as MOS Pillai has explained, it will help us further improve port operations and services.
We are doing all this through a strong tripartite partnership between the Government, industry, and unions. And we are determined that our workers will benefit from the new technology and investments. And indeed, our Port Workers’ Union, Port Officers’ Union and Maritime Officers’ Union are represented and attending this conference, participating in the deliberations. Our workers must be prepared to take on new and more productive roles, and not be sidelined or displaced by technology or AI. Therefore, we are also investing heavily in our people. We are upskilling them to operate new AI and digital systems, and advanced technologies such as remote quay cranes, drones, underwater robots. At the upper echelons, we continue to develop maritime professionals through leadership programmes. With this support, our people will embrace and make full use of technology, instead of resisting it and jeopardising both Singapore’s competitiveness and their own livelihoods.
Contributing to the fight against climate change, and adapting to it
Thirdly, Singapore will play our part in mitigating climate change, even as we adapt to its impact upon us. Since 2013, we have been an observer state in the Arctic Council. We support the Council’s work on scientific research, on sustainable development, and green shipping. Singapore has committed to peaking emissions before 2030, and to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This is an extremely difficult task, for an island nation with hardly any energy sources of our own — whether renewable or fossil. But we will do our share as a responsible member of the international community.
And in the maritime industry, we are investing in green technologies, to play a role in the industry’s decarbonisation transition. Today we are a centre for bunkering and petroleum refining. In future, as alternative fuels are developed and come into use, our sea lines and infrastructure will most probably become key conduits for their transportation and distribution. As MOS Pillai explained, we are conducting trials on the bunkering of alternative fuels, which will support the setting of national and international standards. We are also progressively training our workers to handle alternative fuels, to prepare for their widespread adoption.
This is how we are responding to climate change, while preparing for the inevitable long-term trends that are in store for the global maritime trade.
Conclusion
The world cannot escape the turbulent times ahead. But the future for the maritime industry is still bright. If we plan ahead and take the right steps now, we have every chance of continuing to thrive. As Mr Lee Kuan Yew said at the Singapore Harbour Board in 1963, more than 60 years ago, "The good things in life do not fall down from the skies. They can only come by hard work over a long time". Collectively, we can turn adversity into opportunity.And I welcome all of you here to work with us to seize these opportunities, as we invest for a better, brighter maritime future.
Thank you very much.
[1] Singapore signed the Pacific Alliance-Singapore FTA (PASFTA) with Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in Jan 22, our first FTA with a Maritime Chapter. Singapore signed the Mercosur-Singapore FTA (MCSFTA) on 8 Dec 23, our first FTA with MERCOSUR member states (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay).
Topics: Trade , Transport
Read more
Explore recent content
SPEECH
PRESS CONFERENCE
PRESS RELEASE
PRESS CONFERENCE
PRESS RELEASE
