（2010-11-16）
● 戴庆成 报道香港随着海外热钱持续流入香港，香港住宅楼价不排除会再上升四成。港府财政司司长曾俊华强调，当局在有需要会再度出招。据悉，港府将参考新加坡政府做法，考虑向短期转让楼宇征收额外印花税。瑞银亚洲房地产研究部主管王震宇昨天表示，面对美国次轮量化宽松政策影响热钱流入、通胀压力及中国经济快速增长，即使2012年底前，香港息口有机会上调2%，香港住宅楼价仍然有望有40%的升幅。他认为这是一个可以接受水平。该行最看好香港办公楼价格及租金走势，主要是考虑到需求持续，加上受政策影响风险较低，预测2012年底前香港办公楼价格及租金各有60%及40%升幅。至于住宅价格及租金，则预期分别有40%及15%增长；零售店铺价格及租金则有25%及20%上升空间。面对楼价不断攀升，港府财政司司长曾俊华前天指出，自从港府和金融管理局今年先后推出多项措施，令楼市健康平稳发展，措施已初见一些成效。但在美国和日本再次推出新一轮量化宽松货币政策的背景下，曾俊华担心楼市泡沫的风险有可能进一步上升，尤以随着“量化宽松”而来的投机炒卖，可能会进一步刺激泡沫风险。曾俊华强调，资产泡沫涉及巿民的福祉，港府必须正视有关问题，继续监察最新情况，并提高警觉，在有需要时毫不犹豫地推出新一轮的措施，以确保宏观经济和金融系统的稳定性。曾俊华：小投资者须小心风险他呼吁市民，尤其是小投资者须小心风险，避免过度借贷和炒卖，以防日后市场突然逆转时蒙受损害。曾俊华在文章中特别提到，新加坡推出了一连串防止楼市过热的措施，包括增加土地供应和向一年内转售的楼宇征收税款。据了解，港府研究打击炒楼的措施，包括提高印花税及按揭成数；预料向短期转让楼宇征收额外印花税，会是港府打击炒楼的方向。昨天，曾俊华会见记者时再次重申，会密切留意楼市发展，并在有需要时采取适当措施。不过，对于港府未来可能会透过增加短期楼宇买卖税收来遏止炒风，王震宇认为，有关做法实效不大。他解释，设立炒卖税收或印花税来增加成本，仅能暂时纾缓楼价的升幅，不能扭转升势及遏止炒卖行为。王震宇表示，美国及日本等国相继推次轮量化宽松政策，启动印钞机，欧洲债务危机忧虑重燃，货币泡沫引致资产泡沫恶化，造成竞争性的货币贬值，惟因联汇未能脱勾，香港息口必须紧随美国。“若要抗通胀及纾缓楼市过热情况，港府应尽快增加土地供应、缩短新盘预售期限，甚至拨出公屋用地，以缓和土地紧张的情况。”他认为，港府应尽快把今年未推出的住宅用地推出，甚至可加码供应，来纾缓买楼压力。《联合早报》 | ||||||||||||||||
IMF sees rising risk of bubble in HK housingThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday warned of increasing risks of a property bubble in Hong Kong amid continued liquidity inflows and rock-bottom interest rates and urged the city’s government to take further measures to rein in the booming real estate market. The IMF said that while the city had returned to robust growth, it saw rising inflationary pressures fuelled in large part by soaring property prices and a stronger Chinese yuan. “These pricing pressures will become increasingly visible in the coming months with inflation expected to reach around 5 per cent by end-2011,” said the IMF. The organisation said it expected Hong Kong’s gross domestic product to expand 6.75 per cent this year, with the growth moderating to between 5 and 5.5 per cent next year. The IMF said that Hong Kong dollar’s exchange rate pegged to the US dollar would create challenges in preventing inflation and property price bubbles. The peg means Hong Kong essentially imports the currently very low interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve. “Hong Kong has monetary policy determined by the US in an economy growing much faster than the US,” said Mr Nigel Chalk, a senior advisor of the IMF. “Our concern isn’t now, it’s a prospective concern. You could end up where the property market starts to deflate, prices going down, but payments on household mortgages are going up. It becomes harder to pay your mortgage on an asset that has less value,” he said. Hong Kong home prices have climbed about 50 per cent since the start of last year, surpassing a 1997 peak that was followed by a six-year deflationary slump. Hong Kong Monetary Authority head Norman Chan said yesterday: “We are fully aware of the risks of an acceleration of the credit-fuelled asset cycle,” Since April, the government has raised stamp duty on some home sales, increased down-payment ratios, stopped offering residency to foreigners who buy property in the city and increased land auctions to boost supply. Source : Today – 19 Nov 2010 
| ||||||||||||||||
