民进党入寒冬,三方面影响未来台湾政局
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台湾九合一地方选举民进党雪崩式败选,遭遇至少10年来最大挫败,外媒报导,蔡英文的执政能力与2020年连任之路将因此埋下变数,北京领导人也将冷静下来。
九合一选举民进党惨败,外媒报导,除了薪资成长陷入停滞以外,蔡政府面临军公教年改、一例一修等改革的冲击,部分选民抱怨未受其惠,更对两年来两岸关系恶化提出质疑。
伦敦金融时报(FT)报导,英国诺丁汉大学台湾政治专家苏利文表示,蔡英文带领民进党到2020年总统大选的能力出现一大问号,改革政策跌跌撞撞,经济成长动能疲软,北京对蔡政府也冷处理。
彭博资讯则报导,蔡英文总统任期还有18个月,虽然丢掉几座城市不会直接影响她的执政能力,但这次选举让国民党士气大振,民进党党内反对势力的声浪也可能转强,他们希望蔡英文放弃对北京采取温和立场。
台湾周六这场选战也导致蔡英文2020连任之路遭遇不确定性,虽然民进党仍掌控立法院,但地方政治人物也是动员草根支持群众的关键。
元大宝华综经院资深政治研究员荣沛芳表示,2020年蔡英文恐怕会遭遇严峻挑战;受年金改革冲击的公务员可能会动员起来反对民进党。
民进党兵败如山倒也可能令北京感到欣慰,静待蔡英文结束任期。淡江大学教授黄介正指出:"显然民心已变,北京可等到2020年总统大选后。"
北卡罗来纳州戴维森学院教授任雪丽说,选举结果虽不会促使蔡政府调整在两岸方面的做法,但可能会让北京冷静下来。对北京而言,最糟糕的局面是国民党完全瓦解,且台湾选民通过"正名公投",但这些都未发生。这次以"台湾"取代"中华台北"名义参加国际赛事的公投未过关。
九合一选战民进党大败,民进党主席蔡英文(中)率民秘书长洪耀福(左二)等党内高层向支持者致歉,并宣布辞去党主席。记者王腾毅/摄影
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