中国6月贸易顺差创新高 多国警惕

中国6月贸易顺差创新高，引发多国警惕

KEITH BRADSHER 2024年7月15日

 

源源不断的电动车，海量的家用电器，以及看似无穷无尽的玩具、服装和其他产品的供应。

中国海关总署周五报告称，中国本已令人惊叹的出口在6月份又有大幅飙升。但随着中国企业和家庭在支出方面变得更加谨慎，进口出现萎缩。结果是当月贸易顺差超过990亿美元，创下新高。

对中国政府来说，不断扩大的贸易顺差是个好消息。遥远市场的消费者正在购买许多中国家庭不再需要或无力承担的商品。作为扩大产能的国家战略的一部分，出口有助于维持中国工厂的运营，并为更多在建工厂提供资金。

但中国不断增长的贸易顺差引发了许多国家的警惕。世界各地的官员都在担心中国的出口会取代他们自己的产能，迫使工厂关闭，损害经济增长。最近几周，欧盟以及美国、巴西、印度、土耳其等国政府纷纷对来自中国的制成品加征关税，或征收新的关税。

中国上个月的贸易顺差打破了2022年7月创下的纪录，当时中国的工厂和港口正在竞相跟上全球需求，之前上海因新冠肺炎疫情实施严格封锁，导致中国中部大部分地区的生产陷入瘫痪。

数以百万计的中国民众正在设法节省开支，以以应对房地产的低迷。公寓和其他房产在中国占家庭储蓄的60%至80%，按照国际标准，这是一个异常高的比例。因此，房价下跌对消费者支出产生了巨大影响。由于过度建设，三年前开始的房地产危机已经导致数十家开发商出现债务违约。

6月份进口额同比下降2.3%，降至约2090亿美元。出口猛增8.6%，达到3080亿美元，顺差创下历史新高。

随着进口减少和出口增加，中国对美国的贸易顺差从去年同期的290亿美元增至近320亿美元。6月，中国对欧盟的贸易顺差达到226亿美元，而去年同期为191亿美元。

中国与一些国家的贸易失衡变得尤其突出：例如，中国对肯尼亚的出口现在是来自肯尼亚进口的40多倍。肯尼亚还欠中国和其他贷款方的巨额债务，最近该国发生致命抗议活动，民众反对增税提议，并要求提振经济。

外交关系委员会高级研究员、曾在奥巴马和拜登政府任职的布拉德·塞策说，6月份的数字“甚至低估了中国的贸易实力”。因为出口价格一直在下降，是空调、太阳能电池板等产品的实际出口数量以极快的速度增长导致上个月贸易顺差大幅增加。

“这清楚地表明，中国继续试图依靠出口，尤其是制成业的出口来实现增长，”他补充道。他还表示，这一战略使中国与一些贸易伙伴的分歧越来越大，引发了人们对“单边贸易和对中国供应过度依赖”的担忧。

中国的工厂已经生产了全球近三分之一的制成品。中国最高领导人习近平设定了培养“新质生产力”的国家目标，重点是建设更多装配了大量机器人和其他自动化设备的工厂。

中共领导层将于周一在北京举行为期四天的会议，就经济决策和意识形态进行战略评估，这个会议通常每五年举行一次。中国最新的经济增长数据也将于周一公布，经济学家预计二季度经济增长将出现放缓。

从官方数据可以看到，中国强调通过工业扩张来抵消房地产危机：截至今年3月的12个月里，银行发放的企业贷款净额达到6140亿美元。这是疫情前的六倍，因为银行发放给企业的贷款几乎完全取代了此前发放给房地产行业的贷款。

China Reaches Record Trade Surplus, Raising Alarm Abroad

China's factories have begun an export blitz, prompting worries around the world about the effect on economies elsewhere.

China's monthly trade balance

 

Source: China's General Administration of Customs via CEIC Data By The New York Times

 By Keith Bradsher  Reporting from Beijing July 12, 2024

Vast fleets of electric cars. Huge numbers of household appliances. And a seemingly endless supply of toys, clothing and other products.

China’s already formidable exports surged in June, China’s customs administration reported on Friday. But imports shrank, with Chinese companies and households becoming more cautious about spending money. The result was a record monthly trade surplus of just over $99 billion.

For the Chinese government, the ever-widening trade surplus is good news. Consumers in distant markets are buying many of the goods that Chinese households no longer want or cannot afford. Exports help keep factories open in China, and provide the money for even more factories under construction as part of a national strategy to expand industrial output.

But China’s soaring trade surpluses have prompted alarm in many foreign capitals. Officials around the world worry that exports from China will displace their own industrial output, forcing factories to close and hurting economic growth. In recent weeks, governments in the United States, the European Union, Brazil, India, Turkey and elsewhere have been raising tariffs or imposing new ones on manufactured goods from China.

China’s trade surplus last month broke a record set in July 2022, when the country’s factories and ports were racing to catch up with global demand after a stringent Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai had crippled output throughout much of central China.

Millions of people in China are now looking for ways to save money in response to a real estate downturn. Apartments and other properties represent 60 to 80 percent of household savings in China, an unusually large proportion by international standards. So falling apartment prices have had an outsize effect on consumer spending. A housing crisis that began three years ago because of overbuilding has already led to dozens of developers defaulting on debts.

The value of imports slid 2.3 percent in June from a year earlier, to about $209 billion. Exports jumped 8.6 percent, to $308 billion, generating the record-breaking surplus.

China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to nearly $32 billion last month, up from $29 billion a year earlier, as China exported more and bought less. The surplus with the European Union reached $22.6 billion in June, up from $19.1 billion in the same month last year.

China’s trade has become particularly lopsided with some countries: Its exports to Kenya, for example, are now more than 40 times its imports from that country. Kenya, which also owes heavy debts to China and other lenders, recently experienced deadly protests as crowds rejected proposed tax increases and demanded a stronger economy.

The June report “if anything understates the strength in China’s trade,” said Brad W. Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former official in the Obama and Biden administrations. Because export prices have been falling, the physical volume of exports — the actual number of air-conditioners, solar panels and so forth — has grown with particular speed to produce such a large jump last month in the surplus.

“It is clear evidence that China continues to try to grow on the back of exports, and manufactured exports in particular,” he added. This strategy increasingly puts China at odds with some of its trading partners, raising concerns about “one-sided trade and excessive dependence on Chinese supply,” he said.

Factories in China already make almost a third of the world’s manufactured goods. Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, has set a national goal of fostering “new quality productive forces,” with an emphasis on building even more factories with lots of robots and other automation.

The Chinese Communist Party’s leadership is set to meet on Monday in Beijing for a four-day strategic review of economic policymaking and ideology that typically takes place every five years. China’s latest economic growth statistics are also due on Monday, with economists expecting a slowdown in the second quarter.

The emphasis on industrial expansion to offset China’s housing crisis is evident in official data: Net new bank loans to industrial borrowers reached $614 billion in the 12 months through March. That was six times the annual lending to those borrowers before the pandemic, as lending to industries has almost exactly replaced the loans that previously went to the real estate sector.

Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He has lived and reported in mainland China through the pandemic.