美联储如预期升息1码 暗示升息周期接近终点
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美国联准会(Fed)于美东时间22日下午2时宣布升息1码,联邦资金利率目标区间来到4.75%~5%,符合预期,是全球金融海啸爆发前至今最高水准。在会后发表的决策声明中,Fed强调美国银行业非常健康且具有韧性,但诸多倒闭事件拖累增长。
Fed公布的点状图显示,官员预估今年底的利率水准为5.1%,与去年12时预测的一致,明年底的利率水准如今预估会达4.3%,高于去年12月预测的4.1%,2025年底以及长期利率的最新预测则与上次不变。
至于经济表现则遭下修,今年GDP成长率从上次预测的0.5%下修至0.4%,明年GDP成长幅度也从1.6%调降至1.2%。而今年PCE年升幅预期为3.3%,高于去年12月预估的3.1%,核心PCE的预估值也上修至3.6%。
美股标普500和道琼斯指数翻红,那斯达克综合指数则扩大涨幅。美国公债殖利率下滑,价格反向上涨。
CNBC报导,从点状图可看出,多数决策官员预期接下来只会再升1码,18名官员中仅7人认为利率峰值会超过5.1%,暗示升息已接近终点。彭博资讯指出,这次“鸽式升息”让股市上涨、公债殖利率下挫。
WSJ则说,Fed看来已向银行业的危机屈服。
会后声明中写道,决策委员会“将密切注意接下来的资讯,并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预期,为了让货币政策立场维持在足以产生限制性作用,让通膨率随着时间回到2%,再增加一些政策紧缩或许是恰当的。”
许多华尔街人士形容,这次的联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)利率决策会议,可谓近年“记忆所及最关键”的一场。
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