中国大陆进出口银行副行长张文才今在全球财富管理论坛2023年会。(主办单位提供)
中国进出口银行副行长张文才今在全球财富管理论坛2023年会表示,美国硅谷银行等机构因流动性紧张闪电破产,造成银行业信任危机和挤兑风险,揭露了激进升息下银行资产负债的严重错配问题,引发“雷曼时刻”重演和系统性风险爆发的广泛担忧。在多重风险因素相互交织下,更多“灰犀牛”和“黑天鹅”事件可能随时发生。
他指出,当下全球经济金融发展有四大问题需要关注。一是全球需求趋势性走弱,导致贸易投资增长疲软乏力。根据世贸组织和联合国贸发会的最新发佈,今年全球货物贸易下行趋势有所加剧,全球跨境投资将继续走弱。
二是通货膨胀具有较高黏性,影响经济金融运行和政策选择。高通膨持续席捲主要经济体,成为影响全球发展的重大风险之一。“本轮高通胀并非单纯的货币现象,还与疫情衝击、地缘衝突的深刻影响息息相关,短期内难以打破惯性趋势。”
三是保护主义明显抬头,威胁产业链供应链安全稳定。当前逆全球化思潮涌动,单边主义和保护主义持续上升,产业佈局政治化色彩渐浓,加徵关税、投资审查、出口管制等措施被频繁使用,造成产业链供应链运行成本增加、效率降低,甚至引发脱钩断链,阻碍产业和经济循环,减缓世界开放发展进程。
四是金融脆弱性加剧,引发连锁反应甚至系统性风险。美国联准会激进升息的溢出效应大,更是加剧全球经济金融动盪,导致各类风险趋于多发。很多发展中国家面临资本外流、货币贬值、国际收支恶化、违约风险上升等困难挑战,部分发达国家也面临严重的债务问题,尽管其性质不尽相同。
张文才强调,破解全球和区域发展遇到的多种难题,实现更加包容、更加普惠、更有韧性的全球发展,需要汇聚各方力量,携手应对挑战。他建议,坚持开放发展,推动建设开放型世界经济;优化资源配置,打造稳定畅通的产业链供应链;聚焦共同关切,促进包容和可持续发展;坚持底线思维,有效防范化解金融风险;加强交流合作,注重国际发展融资协作与知识分享。
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