唐家山堰塞湖溃坝机率不断增高 可掀60米高巨浪
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中国水利部总工程师、唐家山堰塞湖抗震抢险指挥部专家组组长刘宁今日紧急通报称,据当前形势判断,唐家山堰塞湖溃坝的机率达93%以上,按现在坝高80米计算,如果再有2毫米降雨量,溃坝后的浪头将达60米(相当于至少15层楼高)。此外,在其下方还存在一个2,000多万方的滑坡体,一旦发生滑动,坝体将瞬间溃决。卫星传送的堰塞湖即时情况显示,湖水现时距离坝顶不足3米,已开始慢慢流入导流槽,明日或后日有望开始自然泄洪。
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■唐家山堰塞湖溃决机率达93%以上。图为青川村民坐在位于堰塞湖旁的屋前,不愿离开。 美联社
截至4日14时,唐家山堰塞湖坝前水位737.78米,较8时上涨0.25米,相应蓄水量2.116亿立方米。据刘宁介绍,上游每降2毫米雨,堰塞湖库存量就上涨1米,当前大坝上的管涌已经加大1倍,抢险难度急剧增加。
上游小湖 百上加斤
而在唐家山堰塞湖的上游漩坪镇,已出现一个小的堰塞湖,坝体和下游的唐家山堰塞湖水面连接。如果小堰塞湖坝体在浸泡下垮塌,形成的涌浪冲击唐家山堰塞湖的大坝,大坝的溃堤可能性将大大增加。
此外,唐家山堰塞湖的危险还有4个不确定因素:一是堰塞湖的堰塞体是受到地震引起的滑坡体构成,其土石结构短时期内很难查清楚;二是上游来水面积达到
3,550平方公里,当地6、7、8月三月的降雨量分别为140、360、330毫米,为堰塞湖带来巨大风险;第三是堰塞体有薄弱的地方,很难在短时间内发现;第四是当前在唐家山堰塞湖淹没的上游漩坪乡,还有2,000多万立方的滑坡体。
刘宁表示,这一滑坡体如何滑动?将造成什幺险情?这是他当前最担心的问题。
青川堰塞湖爆破泄洪
当前,有关部门对唐家山堰塞湖正进行全天候、全自动的监测。下游的绵阳市也已按照三分之一溃坝方案撤离转移25万居民,并同时组织进行了130万人撤离演习。
除了唐家山堰塞湖引起普遍关注外,截至当前,四川灾区总共有27座堰塞湖尚未删除险情。今日下午,当局用5.5吨炸药分两次对蓄水量达1,200多万立方米的青川石板沟堰塞湖实施爆破泄洪。
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