Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has been a frequent candidate for SP 500 inclusion due to its strong market performance and financial metrics.it was not added during the June 2025 quarterly rebalancing, despite speculation from analysts at Bank of America and Barclays, who called it a prime candidate. The SP 500 committee decided not to make any changes to the index at that time, causing HOODs stock to drop about 2% after a 17% rally over six days leading up to the announcement.
Current Chances of Inclusion
1. Eligibility Criteria: HOOD meets the SP 500s key requirements:
Market Capitalization: HOODs market cap is around $93 billion, well above the $22.7 billion threshold.
Profitability: It has been profitable for the past four quarters, with $1.56 in diluted EPS for 2024 and $336 million in net income in the latest quarter.
Liquidity: HOOD has consistent trading volume exceeding the required 250,000 shares monthly.
U.S. Domicile: Robinhood is a U.S.-based company listed on NASDAQ.
2. Recent Developments: A new opportunity for inclusion has emerged due to Chevrons acquisition of Hess, which opened a spot in the SP 500. Posts on X and recent reports indicate renewed speculation that HOOD could be considered for this vacancy, alongside other candidates like AppLovin, Carvana, Ares Management, and Cheniere Energy. Stocktwits users polled in July 2025 favored HOOD for inclusion, with 61% support compared to 16% for Reddit and 13% for AppLovin.
3. Next Opportunity: The next potential window for HOODs inclusion is the September 2025 quarterly review, with an announcement expected around October 1-3, 2025, and an effective date likely around October 6, 2025
Factors Influencing Inclusion
Positive Drivers:
HOODs stock has surged over 150% in 2025, driven by new features, strong user growth (25.8 million funded customers), and expansion into cryptocurrency trading.
Its inclusion in major ETFs like ARKF (7.8% of the portfolio) and the existence of a leveraged ETF (HOOX) reflect market confidence.
The recent addition of Coinbase (COIN) to the SP 500 in May 2025 sets a precedent for crypto-linked financial platforms, boosting HOODs case.
Analysts project earnings growth of 11.9% for 2025 and 20.5% for 2026, supporting its financial stability.
Challenges:
The SP 500 committee considers factors beyond financial metrics, such as governance, market representation, and sector balance, which are less transparent and could delay inclusion.
Regulatory scrutiny in the cryptocurrency space and market volatility could pose risks, as seen with Coinbases challenges post-inclusion.
Competition from other large-cap candidates like AppLovin ($123 billion market cap) or Cheniere Energy (~$50 billion, closer to Hesss market cap) could take priority.
Some X users have expressed skepticism about HOODs inclusion, citing the committees conservative approach (e.g., the committee is likely too boomer to notice).
Potential Impact of Inclusion
Inclusion in the SP 500 typically leads to a stock price increase due to demand from index funds and passive investors. For example, Coinbases stock rose 23.8% after its inclusion announcement. X users estimate a 15% pop for HOOD if added, based on precedents like The Trade Desk and Palantir. However, HOODs high forward P/E ratio (54.33X vs. industry average of 13.61X) suggests its already trading at a premium, which could temper gains.
Sentiment and Speculation
Current sentiment on X remains optimistic, with users like @Mr_Derivatives and @ConsensusGurus highlighting HOODs potential for inclusion in 2025. However, the June 2025 snub shows that speculation can drive short-term price volatility without guaranteed outcomes, as noted by @blakestonks: They ran up $HOOD 15% just to not get added.
Conclusion
Robinhood has a strong chance of being added to the SP 500 in the September 2025 rebalancing due to its robust financials, market cap, and the precedent set by Coinbase. The Chevron-Hess acquisition provides a fresh opportunity, but competition from other candidates and opaque committee decisions introduce uncertainty. Investors should monitor announcements around early October 2025 and be cautious of volatility driven by speculation, as seen in June.
HOOD’s Chance Adding to S&P 500 in next rebalancing
lionhill (2025-07-22 04:31:49) 评论 (0)Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has been a frequent candidate for SP 500 inclusion due to its strong market performance and financial metrics.it was not added during the June 2025 quarterly rebalancing, despite speculation from analysts at Bank of America and Barclays, who called it a prime candidate. The SP 500 committee decided not to make any changes to the index at that time, causing HOODs stock to drop about 2% after a 17% rally over six days leading up to the announcement.
Current Chances of Inclusion
1. Eligibility Criteria: HOOD meets the SP 500s key requirements:
Market Capitalization: HOODs market cap is around $93 billion, well above the $22.7 billion threshold.
Profitability: It has been profitable for the past four quarters, with $1.56 in diluted EPS for 2024 and $336 million in net income in the latest quarter.
Liquidity: HOOD has consistent trading volume exceeding the required 250,000 shares monthly.
U.S. Domicile: Robinhood is a U.S.-based company listed on NASDAQ.
2. Recent Developments: A new opportunity for inclusion has emerged due to Chevrons acquisition of Hess, which opened a spot in the SP 500. Posts on X and recent reports indicate renewed speculation that HOOD could be considered for this vacancy, alongside other candidates like AppLovin, Carvana, Ares Management, and Cheniere Energy. Stocktwits users polled in July 2025 favored HOOD for inclusion, with 61% support compared to 16% for Reddit and 13% for AppLovin.
3. Next Opportunity: The next potential window for HOODs inclusion is the September 2025 quarterly review, with an announcement expected around October 1-3, 2025, and an effective date likely around October 6, 2025
Factors Influencing Inclusion
Positive Drivers:
HOODs stock has surged over 150% in 2025, driven by new features, strong user growth (25.8 million funded customers), and expansion into cryptocurrency trading.
Its inclusion in major ETFs like ARKF (7.8% of the portfolio) and the existence of a leveraged ETF (HOOX) reflect market confidence.
The recent addition of Coinbase (COIN) to the SP 500 in May 2025 sets a precedent for crypto-linked financial platforms, boosting HOODs case.
Analysts project earnings growth of 11.9% for 2025 and 20.5% for 2026, supporting its financial stability.
Challenges:
The SP 500 committee considers factors beyond financial metrics, such as governance, market representation, and sector balance, which are less transparent and could delay inclusion.
Regulatory scrutiny in the cryptocurrency space and market volatility could pose risks, as seen with Coinbases challenges post-inclusion.
Competition from other large-cap candidates like AppLovin ($123 billion market cap) or Cheniere Energy (~$50 billion, closer to Hesss market cap) could take priority.
Some X users have expressed skepticism about HOODs inclusion, citing the committees conservative approach (e.g., the committee is likely too boomer to notice).
Potential Impact of Inclusion
Inclusion in the SP 500 typically leads to a stock price increase due to demand from index funds and passive investors. For example, Coinbases stock rose 23.8% after its inclusion announcement. X users estimate a 15% pop for HOOD if added, based on precedents like The Trade Desk and Palantir. However, HOODs high forward P/E ratio (54.33X vs. industry average of 13.61X) suggests its already trading at a premium, which could temper gains.
Sentiment and Speculation
Current sentiment on X remains optimistic, with users like @Mr_Derivatives and @ConsensusGurus highlighting HOODs potential for inclusion in 2025. However, the June 2025 snub shows that speculation can drive short-term price volatility without guaranteed outcomes, as noted by @blakestonks: They ran up $HOOD 15% just to not get added.
Conclusion
Robinhood has a strong chance of being added to the SP 500 in the September 2025 rebalancing due to its robust financials, market cap, and the precedent set by Coinbase. The Chevron-Hess acquisition provides a fresh opportunity, but competition from other candidates and opaque committee decisions introduce uncertainty. Investors should monitor announcements around early October 2025 and be cautious of volatility driven by speculation, as seen in June.