多空激辩:美股还有得涨?失去动能转跌?
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美国股市涨势正盛,即便联准会(Fed)上周暗示还会有两次各1码的升息,仍无法浇熄今年来的多头气焰。然而,对于美股后市会继续往上攻坚或涨不动了,分析师陷入激辩。
标普500指数16日收在4,409.59点,比去年10月谷底上涨23%,已进入技术分析的牛市,一度怀疑涨势的投资人也重回市场。不少因去年惨跌而减码的投资人,如今陆续翻多布局。多家华尔街券商调高美股今年目标水准,高盛将标普500目标从4,000点上调至4,500点,理由是美国经济12个月内不太可能衰退。
巴隆周刊分析,假如美股投资人想找理由逢高杀出持股、获利了结,过去一周来多的是借口可付诸行动,例如Fed暗示还要升息。但为何买盘仍旺?因为市场普遍认定,Fed不管日后升不升息,如今这波紧缩循环已近尾声,这将容许经济成长和企业获利回稳。
标普500指数已接连突破几个关键水准,今年来近十次向4,200点叩关不成,几周前突破此水准,可见追高的投资人对市场前景深具信心。BCA
Research首席策略师裴塔形容,4,200点“显然是重要价位”,一旦突破,“阻力关卡就变成支撑价位”。
当然,股市并非零风险。今年美股涨势主要由一小撮大型科技股领军冲锋,万一这些重量级权值股变得步履蹒跚,可能拖垮大盘。
花旗集团和美银都预测,美股即将失去动能,走势会转跌。
花旗以克罗诺特(Scott
Chronert)为首的策略师预估,标普500指数年底跌至4,000点,明年年中再爬升至4,400点。报告指出,企业获利未见具体修正、美国衰退迫在眉睫。另外,许多投资人情绪指标显示,众人对美股看法审慎,例如列夫科维奇指数(Levkovich
Index)仍在负0.18的“恐慌”领域。
去年准确预测抛售潮的分析师哈奈特(Michael
Hartnett)16日也指出,不相信标普500强弹是“崭新闪亮牛市的开端”。
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