UN:激进升息恐酿大风暴 比金融海啸新冠危机更恐怖
文章来源: 经济日报 于
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联合国警告,若和其他央行继续升息,可能会把全球经济推入衰退,接著将陷入长期停滞。(本报系资料库)
联合国贸易暨发展会议(UNCTAD)警告,若美国联准会(Fed)和其他央行继续升息,可能会把全球经济推入衰退,接著将陷入长期停滞;目前先进经济体的财政与货币政策,可能造成比2008年金融海啸、以及2020新冠疫情危机更大的伤害。
UNCTAD发布年度贸易与发展报告指出,“乌克兰战争持续、通膨长期居高不下、实质利率的类伏克尔震撼及金融动盪升高,可能把全球经济推入更深的衰退,之后长期停滞。报告也调降今年全球经济成长率预测至2.5%,低于3月预估的2.6%,明年成长将趋缓至2.2%,主因为各国央行积极升息以抑制通膨。
报告指出,Fed等央行快速升息,对开发中国家衝击尤重,推估Fed每升息1个百分点,将使其他富国经济产值在之后三年减少0.5%,贫穷国家更将减少0.8%,Fed今年来的升息措施,将导致贫穷国家未来三年经济产值减少3,600亿美元,若进一步紧缩政策,将造成更多伤害。
UNCTAD警告,若已开发经济体的金融情势恶化,并且感染效应衝击新兴经济体,全球成长趋势可能进一步下滑,若这种低成长情境维持两年以上,全球经济产值扩张速度将比金融海啸之后还慢。
报告还警告,过度紧缩的货币政策、以及财政支持不足,可能导致开发中经济体进一步陷入一连串危机。报告指出,开发中国家今年来已耗费3,790亿美元外汇存底捍卫本币,几乎比国际货币基金(IMF)近来分配的特别提款权(SDR)高出一倍。
这个联合国机构说,目前物价压力上涨来源,包括全球供应链受扰、货柜运价仍高、俄乌战争对关键部门的影响、成本升高、商品市场的投机行为、以及新冠疫情发展不确定性等多重因素,但升息无助舒缓能源和粮食短缺,因此决策当局应该聚焦直接针对价格上涨的措施,包括加强管控商品市场投机、化解供应链瓶颈,及对能源价格设置上限,财源则来自对许多能源公司的异常高获利课徵一次性税收。
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