马斯克:中国每个世代将少40% 面临人口崩溃
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三孩政策也难救
期待在中国扩大市场版图的美国最大电动汽车及太阳能公司“特斯拉”执行长马斯克,六日透过推特警告中国正面临“人口崩溃”危机,据当前生育率评估中国未来各世代将减少四成人口。人口学家指出,武汉肺炎疫情加剧中国人口下降趋势,估当地约有两百万人因此延后或放弃生育计划。
疫情加剧人口下降 200万人弃生小孩
特斯拉在中国上海市设有美国本土以外首座超级工厂,二○一九年初正式开工;不料该国同年底窜出武汉肺炎,上海市更在今年三月廿七日突然宣布隔天起进行史无前例的“封控”措施。就在中国政府试图松绑防疫措施以恢复投资者信心、活络经济的同时,马斯克六日就英国广播公司(BBC)预估中国人口持续缩减的分析报导推文指出,“多数人还在以为中国实行一胎化政策。中国去年出生率创历来新低,尽管已有三孩政策!”
中国“全球化智库”(CCG)特邀高级研究员黄文政表示︰“马斯克的担忧有凭有据,我和同僚早已预估十年内人口持续大幅衰减”,“若政府心态不改,又不认清一国竞争力关键是人,衰减趋势将无以翻转。”
中国二○一六年推动“全面二孩”,终结一九七九年为解决人口高增长率的一胎化政策;但生育率未明显提升,二○一七至二○二○年出生人口数连续四年下降,去年改以“三孩”因应。惟中国人口依旧快速老化,意味面临劳动力缩减等挑战,全境去年仅有一○六○万名新生儿出世,创中国共产党一九四九年建政以来最低纪录,总人口仅净成长四十八万人、不比十年前动辄八百万人的盛况;具有生育能力的女性平均每人拥有一.一五个小孩,不到维持稳定人口结构的二.一人替代生育水准,更比人口也在老化的日本还低。
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