联准会(Fed)于美东1日下午2时宣布决议利率“连六冻”,维持基准利率区间于5.25%~5.50%不变,主席鲍尔表示,他对通膨降至2%的信心减弱,暗示利率将在高水位维持更久,但也说不考虑再度升息,且宣布6月起大幅缩小每月减持公债的规模,鹰派色彩比市场预期更淡,市场评估最早下半年开始降息。
Fed货币决策小组联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)在决策声明中指出,“近月来,在走向2%通膨目标方面缺乏进一步进展”。鲍尔也说,“可能要花更久时间,才能使我们对通膨持续降到2%目标取得信心”,而且“我不知道要花多久”、“我在这方面的信心比之前低”。
鲍尔提出降息的两项条件,一是劳动市场严重且出乎意料地走软,一是通膨恢复到去年的下降趋势,“这些是你们能预期我们将会降息的路径”。
不过,Fed并未考虑升息。鲍尔直言,“我认为下一步动作不太可能是调升”,升息的前提是官员要看到令人信服的证据,表明货币政策还不够紧缩,无法让通膨率回到2%目标,“我们没有看到支持这一结论的证据”,“这将是一个必须由数据回答的问题”。他也驳斥有关“停滞性通膨”的说法,“我没看到停滞,也没看到通膨”。
野村控股已开发市场首席经济学者塞伊夫表示,鲍尔的说法比预期“更鸽”,未因为通膨高于预估就转鹰。
Fed也宣布放缓资产负债表的缩减速度,6月起每月赎回公债的上限将从600亿美元减少到250亿美元,比市场预期更加宽松,抵押担保证券(MBS)的减持上限则维持在350亿美元不变,但Fed会把超过上限的本金再投入美国公债,而非MBS,有助使美债殖利率下降。
鲍尔驳斥升息的可能性后,市场仍预期今年底前将降息1~2码,有“新债券天王”之称的双线资本公司创办人冈雷克认为,Fed今年会降息1码。
Wilmington
Trust投资顾问公司首席经济学家提利认为,Fed可能7月启动降息,因为9月开始降息“难度很高”,太接近11月总统大选,虽然鲍尔说,总统选举并非Fed决策的考量因素。
Fed公布最新决策后,市场预期7月开始降息的几率升至32.2%,9月开始降息的几率升至58%。
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