美国将于今年11月举行大选,争取连任的拜登总统与卷土重来的前总统川普已笃定成为两大党候选人。《新闻周刊》(Newsweek)整理晚近各家民调发现,多数调查结果显示拜登领先。专家则认为,距离选举还有半年多,变数仍多,目前无法预料最终的赢家。
《新闻周刊》的报导引述“角逐白宫大位”网站(RacetotheWH),指出最近12次的民意调查中,有8次显示拜登领先川普。比如路透社和益普索
(Ipsos) 4 月 5 日至 9 日所进行的最新民调显示,拜登将获得 41% 的选票,胜过川普所得到的37%。IBD/TIPP 在
4 月 3 日至 5 日的调查结果,拜登将以43% 比 40% 胜过川普。马凯特(Marquette)3 月 18 日至 28
日的民调结果,拜登将获得 52% 的选票,川普将获得 48% 的选票。
也有几份民调的结果是川普领先。Morning Consult的调查结果,川普将以44%比43%胜过拜登。艾默生学院(Emerson
College)4月2日至3日的调查结果则显示,川普将以51%比49%打败拜登。
英国诺丁汉大学教授菲尔普斯 (Christopher
Phelps)认为双方“势均力敌”。他指出:“民意调查的数量很多,要确定对哪些民意调查给予重视是很困难的。也就是说,最优先的不应该是全国民意调查,而是针对最近竞争最激烈的特定战场州的民意调查。”
“这些民调并没有达成明确的共识。《华尔街日报》刚发布的一项民调显示,拜登在8个战场州中有7个州都表现不佳。其他民调显示,拜登在这些州中领先。”
菲尔普斯分析:“无论以何种标准衡量,距离11
月如此遥远的选举都难以分出胜负。而且还有很多不确定因素。选民会相信经济正在改善吗?以色列和加萨的局势会得到某种程度的解决吗?会吗?女性会因堕胎权的问题而拉高投票率吗?选民会在多大程度上优先考虑移民?川普会在针对他的众多刑事审判中被判有罪吗?拜登会不会有一个插曲重新引起人们关注他的年龄的?这些已知的未知因素,都可能影响选情。”
菲尔普斯的结论是:“时间还太早,我们无法预知结局。”
-->
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