美国2月消费者物价年增3.2%,意外回升,反映物价基本趋势的核心通膨率也高于市场预期。压制通膨“最后一哩路”颠簸难行,联准会短期内降息的几率进一步降低。
劳工部今天公布,美国2月消费者物价指数(CPI)年增率3.2%,市场预期保持在3.1%;剔除波动较大的食品与能源后,核心CPI年增率从1月的3.9%降至3.8%,创2021年以来新低,仍高于市场预期的3.7%。
经季节调整,CPI月增率从1月的0.3%升至0.4%,符合市场预期;核心CPI月增率保持在0.4%,未如市场预期降至0.3%。
投资人对最新物价数据反应淡定。美股开高后在平盘附近游走,道琼斯工业指数盘初跌近30点,标准普尔500指数及那斯达克综合指数涨幅分别约0.1%、0.2%。
新冠大流行前期供需失衡,美国CPI年增率曾在2022年夏季冲上9.1%,创40年来新高。随着联邦准备理事会(Fed)积极升息压抑需求,供应链瓶颈疏通,通膨率逐渐朝联准会目标回归。但近期数据显示美国年初通膨僵固,联准会官员为求谨慎而不愿贸然降息。
根据劳工部报告,加油及居住费用占2月整体物价涨幅逾6成。
其中,包含房租的居住费用持续带动核心物价上涨,月增率虽从1月的0.6%降至0.4%,与去年同期相比仍上涨5.7%,占核心CPI年增率约2/3。
联准会主席鲍尔(Jerome
Powell)上周赴国会作证时说,联准会离能够降息“不远”,但官员希望见到更多通膨持续朝目标2%迈进的迹象。联准会偏好参考商务部公布的个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数。这项指数近几个月涨幅低于CPI,但两者组成部分重叠,走势大致相仿。
联准会下周将召开决策会议,市场普遍预期政策利率将保持在23年高点,最新CPI数据让官员更有理由继续观望。至于联准会是否会如投资人预期在6月降息,未来几个月通膨走势格外关键。
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