硅谷银行(SVB)倒闭触动最近一波金融动盪,是否会影响下周联准会(Fed)利率决策?前美国财长桑默斯(左)与2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁曼(右)日前针对此议题发表看法。图/路透
美国联准会(Fed)将于下周举行利率决策会议,在硅谷银行(SVB)和Signature
Bank不堪挤兑相继倒闭后,投资人正密切关注Fed升息路径是否受这波金融动盪影响。目前看来,Fed这回升息1码,是在稳定金融与宣示继续抗通膨之间取得平衡的折衷之道。
前美国财政部长桑默斯(Larry Summers)接受彭博电视台访问时表示,Fed切勿被“金融优先”(financial
dominance)想法挟持,唯恐继续紧缩货币政策将危及金融体系稳定,因而鬆懈抗通膨要务。他认为,至少在目前情况下,Fed下周升息1码是“适当”的。
桑默斯指出,Fed在21日至22日开会时,势必会考量上周末两家银行倒闭已引发信用创造减缓,但“这波授信减缓”远不及“如今被市场订价所移除的Fed货币紧缩数量”。他还说,假如Fed反应过度,一见到银行业出状况利率政策就急转弯,可能让众人觉得连Fed都吓坏了,可见大事不妙;放鬆抑升生活费之战,也可能导致通膨预期升高。如此一来,反而会导致“通膨预期升高和经济萎缩”的双重恶果。
哈佛大学教授、前IMF首席经济学家罗格夫(Kenneth
Rogoff)在18日刊出的金融时报专栏表示,他认为,在银行业动盪之际,Fed当然不能再强行升息2码,但又不能轻忽核心通膨超过5%的现实。所以,一旦银行业恢复风平浪静,Fed或许可选择升息1码;但若市况依然风声鹤唳,Fed可强调升息路径不变,但须稍事歇息。
2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁曼(Paul
Krugman)则在推文和纽约时报专栏指出,银行倒闭已促使投资人重新思考Fed货币政策走向,原先普遍看法是Fed本月升息已成定局,但现在展望变得不明。他认为,Fed有充分理由“限制升息幅度”至少一阵子。毕竟升息的目的是让需求降温,如果银行问题让需求降温,利率就不必升得那么高。
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