市场预期美联储将强升息 美国明年利率冲到5%
文章来源: 经济日报 于
- 新闻取自各大新闻媒体,新闻内容并不代表本网立场!
在美国联准会(Fed)官员持续发表鹰派谈话之际,市场预期,Fed的政策利率将在2023年上半年触及5%的高峰,为迄今最高水准。美国前财长桑默斯则认为,若Fed的终点利率高于5%,将是“某种里程碑”。
追踪联邦资金利率的利率期货市场显示,交易员已完全预期,Fed利率将在明年5月升抵5%,高于上周公布9月通膨数据后的4.6%。2023年3月和5月隔夜指数互换合约利率,都高于5%。彭博资讯报导指出,基准利率最近一次站上5%是2006年的事。
桑默斯在推特表示,利率期货市场显示,Fed的终端利率已升破5%,“这是某种里程碑,我认为利率还可能再升,但过去18个月来的超过400个基点升幅,确定是我们将在这波升息循环所看到的多数升幅”。
Fed从今年3月以来已五度升息,最近一次是9月升息3码至3%~3.25%区间,目前市场预估11月将连续第四度升息3码,基准利率区间将升至3.75%~4%。
Fed理事库克20日表示,通膨依然高到令人无法接受,因此必须继续升息,接着维持会限制经济活动的政策一段时间,与其他官员的说法呼应。
费城联邦准备银行总裁哈克(今年没有决策投票权)则预期,由于Fed抑制通膨的进展不大,今年底的利率水准将“远高于”4%。明年就有投票权的他也说,若通膨仍未降温,明年能进一步紧缩货币政策,这取决于数据,但货币政策要产生影响需求时间,“通膨常像火箭般飙升,像羽毛般回落”。哈克说,根据他对经济的预测,似乎不会陷入衰退。今年成长将放缓,通膨保持在高点、且金融情势收紧,今年经济活动将持平,明年国内生产毛额(GDP)将成长1.5%。他认为现为3.5%的失业率,到明年可能会上升1个百分点,接着下降到4%,这代表在Fed压低通膨的过程中,劳动市场将保持健全。
-->
`,
"script":[{"type":"text/javascript","src":"//widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js","async":"async"}]
}
, "gg_rightside": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[{"type":"text/javascript","src":"//widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js","async":"async"}]
}
, "gg_duturandom": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_square": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_topbanner": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_middlesquare": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_dutu": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_botline": {
"html":``,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_dututop": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_shipintop": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_inContent": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_shipinrandom": {
"html":``,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_sideSticky": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
, "gg_bottombanner": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[{"type":"text/javascript","src":"//widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js","async":"async"}]
}
, "gg_marquee": {
"html":`
`,
"script":[]
}
}
const adEnv={
"gg_header": {
"html":``,
"script":[{"type":"text/javascript","exec":` var googletag = googletag || {}; googletag.cmd = googletag.cmd || []; var pbjs = pbjs || {}; pbjs.que = pbjs.que || []; `},{"type":"text/javascript","src":"https://adncdnend.azureedge.net/adn-hb/adn.wnx2.js","async":""},{"type":"text/javascript","src":"https://adncdnend.azureedge.net/adn-video/WenxuecityPlayer.js","async":"async"}]
}
}
const wxcEnv = {
"base":{
"exe":[],
"src":[
{"src": "/news/js/recommendednews.js","defer":"true"},
{"src":"/js/wxcFunc.js","defer":"true"}
]
},
"func":{
"exe":[
//展示评论
'function showMoreComments(){let n = 6;for(let i=0;i
2){dom.hide();}}$("#showallcomment").show();$("#showlesscomment").hide();};hideComments();',
],
"src":[
//图片,搜索,QR code
{"src": "/news/js/view.js?v=05132024"},
//计数器
{"src":"//count.wenxuecity.com/service/count/script/do.php?type=news&id=11910705&n=0&out=jsval","defer":"true"},
]
}
}
function wxcCode(){
wxcEnv.base.exe.forEach(x=>{
let tag = buildAdcode(x);
document.head.append(tag);
})
wxcEnv.base.src.forEach(src => {
let tag = buildSrc(src)
document.head.append(tag);
});
wxcEnv.func.exe.forEach(x=>{
let tag = buildAdcode(x);
document.body.append(tag);
})
wxcEnv.func.src.forEach(src => {
let tag = buildSrc(src)
document.body.append(tag);
});
}
function adcode(){
let adkey = Object.keys(ads);
adkey.forEach(x=>{
let code = ads[x].html;
let div = document.getElementById(x);
if(div)div.innerHTML = code;
ads[x].script.forEach(s=>{
if(Object.keys(s).indexOf('src')===-1){
let tag = buildAdcode(s.exec);
document.body.append(tag);
}else{
let tag = buildSrc(s);
document.body.append(tag);
}
})
})
}
function baseCode(){
let baseKeys = Object.keys(adEnv);
baseKeys.forEach(x=>{
adEnv[x].script.forEach(s=>{
if(Object.keys(s).indexOf('src')===-1){
let tag = buildAdcode(s.exec);
document.head.append(tag);
}else{
let tag = buildSrc(s);
document.head.append(tag);
}
})
})
}
function buildAdcode(script){
let tag = document.createElement('script');
tag.innerHTML = script;
return tag;
}
function buildSrc(obj){
let keys = Object.keys(obj);
let tag = document.createElement("script");
keys.forEach(key=>{
tag.setAttribute(key, obj[key]);
})
return tag ;
}