巢湖银屏牡丹开14朵 民间传大涝之年
文章来源: 新安晚报 于
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“一朵灾二朵旱,三朵四朵报平安,五朵五谷丰登,六朵六畜兴旺,七朵以上如果花期过长就会发大水”。连日来在安徽巢湖民间广泛流传着这种说法:今年巢湖银屏牡丹花开14朵,预示着今年将是大涝之年。
新安晚报报道,在距巢湖市区约15公里的巢湖银屏山仙人洞上方2
0多米高的悬崖绝壁上生长着一株白牡丹,千百年来谷雨时节花争妍,景况壮观,每年都吸引了八方游客一睹其“芳容”(图二)。因为1991年,该花开了13朵,花期持续15天,超过平均花期一周时间。而正好当年巢湖流域出现了严重的洪涝灾害,因此,连日来,巢湖民间广泛流传今年巢湖银屏牡丹花开14朵,预示着今年将是大涝之年的说法。
巢湖市气象局高级工程师张克杰就此认为,资料统计显示,这株牡丹每年开花的朵数和花期与当年开花前期温湿度、降水次数和降水量有关,前期降水多,则开花多,花期长;反之则开花少,花期短。近20年的资料分析表明,牡丹每年开花的朵数和花期与实际旱涝灾害呈离散分布,两者之间并没有必然联系。如1992年花开5朵,但当年巢湖却发生了严重旱灾。
从1987年到今年的统计资料显示,只有1991年和2002年花开与当年涝旱巧合,其余年份都不符。事实证明,银屏牡丹只是比较罕见的牡丹花,并不具备“测天”的灵性。
张克杰高级工程师说,人们应该依据科学的预测手段,全面地分析相关的气象资料,才能较准确地预测天气,切不可听信谣言。
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