274 爱报不报：Michigan, Here Is The Dem Deal–Nobody or Romney

The line is in Michigan, not surprisingly. Following the Iowa caucus, Obama and Edwards has declined to register as write-in candidates in Michigan State primary scheduled Today, Jan 15, Tuesday. Why? The State has violated the DNC rule by moving its primary up into January. As a result, DNC stripped off Michigan from the 2008 convention on its delegate seats. Another state that received the same treatment due the same reason is Florida, which primary is to be held on Jan 29. However, Michigan Dems are turning out historical high and there is a increasing telling that they will vote for either Nobody or Romney.

什么是uncommitted votes。简单的说，就是vote for nobody。因DNC宣布禁止密歇根州的代表参加08年的党全会，希拉里许诺不在密州搞竞选活动，奥巴马和爱德华兹则于1月4日撤出竞选注册，则导致目前密州民主党的ballots里只有希拉里一位主要候选人。希拉里不放弃注册，是因为密州因为没人campaign，她获胜概率最大。

如果密州今天的民主党ballots出现超过15%的uncommitted，则密州将会派出相应的uncommitted的delegates出席DNC。如果这些代表最终被允许投票，那么他们的投票到时候将是自由投票，可以投给任何人。这样密州初选的获胜就失去意义了。更重要的事，如果obama和edwards的支持者都投了uncommitted，那么希拉里将很可能得票数次于uncommitted。这种输给“nobody”的意义对于希拉里来讲，非常不利。这不仅挑战其front runner的神话，还预示着在将来爱、奥联合的条件下希拉里的劣势处境。

另外，民主党选民最近还在串联去投Mitt Romney的票。Romney被评为民主党最喜欢的共和党人。As being said, There is no greater voice against the Republican candidates than this republican candidate。如果Romney胜出密州，共和党将出现三足鼎立的态势，那样党内的相互攻讦将会更激烈。所有候选人都有更多的被“毁”机会。

到底今天的结果会怎样，民党人是投Uncommitted还是Romney，等晚上就见分晓。不过可以肯定的是，密州的民主党人虽然看上去已经被DNC封了，将来解禁的可能性也不大，但是出来的投票的人数还是会创历史新高。凸子预测，Nobody似乎比Romney更符合密州产业工人对政府的强烈不满情绪。

大家看看这个YouTube一乐吧。