叔涵心语
叔涵畅谈天下事，实话实说，实事求是！
陈叔涵 2022年1月23日
人是世间最复杂的生命现象。看任何人，不管是普罗大众还是领袖精英，如果只是用简单的二分法，不好即坏，非黑即白。那就太武断，有失理性与客观，也有违人性，不符合实事求是的评判准则。
习近平也是一个复杂的生命体。习近平身上有极端自卑的一面，也有极度自负的一面。诚然，习作为国家领导人，在内政外交上都十分失败，可谓治国无方。但是，习近平精于权斗，内斗内行，堪称弄权有术，这也是习近平政治生涯中唯一可圈可点的部分，乃习自负之源。否则，习近平不可能在龙椅上坐如此之久。习近平的权斗生涯大致可划分为两个阶段，第一个阶段是在接掌大位之前，第二个阶段是上位之后。
先说第一个阶段。习近平是典型的红二代，他能坐上龙椅与他的出身密切相关。习成长在文革年代，亲眼目睹了各式各样的派系斗争，加之出身高官之家，对官场的权斗耳濡目染，自然就培养了政治斗争的敏锐嗅觉。红二代中不乏既有实际才干又有个人魅力者，但最终只有习近平胜出，这就足以证明习在权力争斗方面确有过人之处。习最大的能耐就是装憨卖傻，也可说是假痴不癫，他用这一招成功地蒙骗了江泽民胡锦涛。习近平也很幸运，是中共党内权力博弈的最终受益者。他能胜出，很大程度上归功于江泽民的私心。江泽民效仿邓小平，搞现代版的垂帘听政。江卸任时并不是一下子将所有权力都转交给胡锦涛，只将党权移交，而将军权抓住不放，直到将自己的亲信安插到政治局常委后才将军委主席一职让给胡锦涛。当时的一首童谣就生动地反映了这一史实：中国人民奔小康，三个代表进党章；锦涛成了党中央，泽民同志不交枪！
就如邓小平指定胡锦涛为江泽民的接班人一样，江泽民指定了习近平为胡锦涛的继承人。江泽民故伎重施，指望像控制胡锦涛一样，把习近平当玩偶。因为习看起来憨憨傻傻的，没什么心机。江寻思这样的人容易控制，他可跟先前一样继续把持政权。这就不得不令人佩服习近平深厚的表演功力，居然连党内老奸巨猾且最善权谋的曾庆红都没能识破。能演得如此到位，这种演技远非任何影视明星可以比肩的。当时中国之政坛，唯习近平一人而已。
习不光是善装，同时也善忍，他的耐性在当时政坛也无人能出其右。在没坐上龙椅之前，他相当低调，极少在公众面前表现自己。2007年中共十七大习近平已经进入权力中枢且成了储君，然而，习近平并没有得意忘形，他深知，中共权斗充满变数，不坐上龙椅便不能说夺权成功。他除了继续装憨卖傻之外，还在苦苦等待时机干掉威胁他取得皇位的最大政敌薄熙来。因为薄熙来也是红二代，资历不在习之下，且薄之政治才干和个人魅力远在习近平之上。薄在重庆的“唱红打黑”运动卓有成效，民望颇高，这让习深感压力和不安。黄天不负有心人，2012年初薄熙来的亲信王立军逃入成都美国领事馆寻求政治庇护，这就是轰动世界的王立军事件。蛰伏五年的习近平趁机发难，火速联合胡锦涛温家宝一举拿下薄熙来，除掉心头大患。在此事件中，习近平体现出狼一般的耐性，鳄鱼一般的凶猛。一击即中，不给对手任何反扑机会。时机拿捏之精准，出手之迅疾，杀伐之果断，令人叹为观止。当习近平坐稳大位，开始整肃江泽民曾庆红之旧部时，二人才开始后悔看走了眼，恐怕内心也佩服习近平的隐忍功力吧，只可惜为时已晚！
再说第二个阶段。习近平接掌大位后的权斗经历不如之前出彩，但也是有些亮点的。为巩固权力，习近平开始大力反腐，铁腕肃贪。习把古代的帝王之术成功地复制到反腐运动中：用贪官，反贪官。即，用听命于己的贪官而以贪腐之名去整肃政敌。习反腐既清除了异己又赢得民众一片掌声，为自己的政绩加分不少。接着，习近平又大耍两面派手腕，一面说，要将权力关进制度的笼子里，而一面又大力提拔自己的亲信到最重要的岗位，试看今日之朝中，竟是清一色的习家军人马！然而，习近平最令世人惊讶的权谋举动就是以迅雷不及掩耳之势修改宪法，为终身掌权铺平道路。此一操作可谓出其不意攻其无备，让人猝不及防，也堪称大手笔。
习近平治国理念是混乱不堪的，但习的权斗理念却异常清晰，因为习近平嗜权如命。习权斗的理论结晶就是四个意识，即，政治意识，大局意识，核心意识，看齐意识。虽算不上是政治上的理论创新，但好歹也可用作一面权斗的旗帜。习近平的权斗理论也收获了实际果实：习核心、定于一尊！
作为中共第五代领导人，习近平治国无方、扰民有术，不免令其自卑。然而，习谙于权谋，内斗内行，又不免令其自负，总算寻得一点心理平衡。不过，《圣经》曰：用剑者死于剑。同理可知：用谋者败于谋，弄权者毁于权。此话迟早会应验，因为习近平不管是用谋还是弄权，其动机都是为一己之私欲而不是为天下苍生之福祉！
Xi Jinping’s conceited life
By Chen Shuhan January 23, 2022
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Mankind is the most complex phenomenon of life in the world. Judging anyone, whether he is one of the general public or one of the elite leaders, if we just use a simple dichotomy, either good or bad, either black or white, that would be too arbitrary, irrational, and one-sided, still it is against human nature and doesn’t go in line with the criterion of realistic judgment: seeking truth from facts Xi Jinping is a complex being too. There exists an extreme inferiority in his bones and an extreme ego in his mind. Admittedly, Xi Jinping has failed miserably as a national leader in both domestic and foreign affairs, but Xi has been exceptionally successful in power struggles, which is the only notable part of Xi's political career, and this is the very source of his conceit, which is the fundamental reason why Xi has been able to sit on the dragon chair for so long time. Xi's career in power struggle can be roughly divided into two stages, the first, before he took over the throne, and the second, after he assumed the throne. Let's start with the first stage. Xi Jinping is a typical second-generation Red, and his rise to the dragon chair is closely related to his origin. He grew up during the Cultural Revolution and witnessed all sorts of factional struggles, what’s more, he came from a family of high-ranking officials and had been imperceptibly influenced by what he constantly saw and heard about the power struggles of the officialdom since he was born, so he naturally developed a keen sense of political struggle. Among the second-generation Reds abound with candidates who are extraordinary in both practical skills and personal charisma. The fact that Xi Jinping was the only one to win proves that Xi is really good at power games. Xi's greatest ability is to play dumb or pretend to be stupid, and he has successfully fooled Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao with this trick. Xi is also lucky to be the ultimate beneficiary of the power game within the Chinese Communist Party. He was able to win, thanks in large part to Jiang Zemin's selfishness. Jiang followed Deng Xiaoping's example and engaged in a modern version of attending state affairs behind the bamboo curtain. When Jiang left office, he did not transfer all the power to Hu Jintao at once, but only handed over the power in the Party, while holding the military power until he installed his cronies in the Politburo Standing Committee before giving the chairmanship of the Military Commission to Hu Jintao. A nursery rhyme at that time vividly reflects this historical fact: the Chinese people ran for prosperity, the Three Representatives were put into the Party constitution, Jintao became the leader of the Party central committee, and Comrade Zemin did not hand over the gun! Just as Deng Xiaoping designated Hu Jintao as Jiang Zemin's successor, Jiang Zemin has designated Xi Jinping as Hu Jintao's successor. Jiang Zemin is playing the same trick again, expecting to use Xi Jinping as a plaything, just like he controlled Hu Jintao. Because Xi seems to be a simple and dumb person with little calculation, Jiang thinks such a person is easy to control, and he can continue to hold power as he did before. This makes everyone today admire Xi Jinping's profound acting skills, which even Zeng Qinghong, the most cunning and scheming person in the Party failed to see through. This is an extraordinary performance beyond any movie star. To play so well at that time, Xi Jinping was the only one in the Chinese political arena. Xi is not only good at pretending, but also well at enduring, and his patience is unmatched in the political arena at the time. Before he sat on the dragon chair, he kept a low profile and seldom showed off himself in front of the public. Xi Jinping entered the center of power and became the crown prince at the 17th Communist Party Congress in 2007, however, Xi Jinping is not complacent, he knows that the power struggle in the Chinese Communist Party is full of variables, and he cannot say he has succeeded in seizing power until he sits on the dragon chair. He continues to play dumb but is also waiting for the right time to kill his biggest political rival, Bo Xilai, who threatens him to get the throne. The reason is that Bo Xilai is also a second-generation Red and his seniority is not under Xi, what’s more, Bo's political talent and personal charisma are far above Xi Jinping. The "Singing Red Songs and Striking black society” campaign by Bo in Chongqing is very effective and popular, which makes Xi feel pressured and uneasy. In early 2012, Bo's crony Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu to seek political asylum, which became a worldwide sensation. This was the world's most dramatic event of Wang Lijun. Xi Jinping, who had been hiding for five years, took the opportunity to join Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao to bring down Bo Xilai in one fell swoop, eliminating a major problem, and leaving no chance for his opponent to fight back. In this event, Xi Jinping showed his wolf-like patience and crocodile-like fierceness. The precision of the timing, the swiftness of the strike, and the decisiveness of the killing are all breathtaking. Once Xi Jinping sat on the throne safe and sound and began to purge Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong's old cronies, the two began to regret backing on the wrong horse, I'm afraid they also admire Xi Jinping's patience in their minds, but unfortunately, it was too late! And then comes the second stage. Xi Jinping's experience of power struggles after taking over the reins is less impressive than before, but there are some highlights too. To consolidate his power, Xi launched a vigorous anti-corruption campaign, purging corruption with an iron fist. Xi has successfully replicated the ancient imperial technique in his anti-corruption campaign: use corrupt officials to fight corruption. That is, he used the corrupt officials who were willing to listen to him to purge his political enemies in the name of corruption. Xi's anti-corruption campaign has not only cleared the dissidents but also won public applause, adding a lot of scores to his performance. Then, Xi Jinping played both sides of the fence, saying on the one hand that he wanted to put power in the cage of the system, while on the other hand, he promoted his own cronies to the most important positions, look at the dynasty today, it is all Xi's men! However, the most surprising power move of Xi Jinping is to amend the constitution swiftly to pave the way for a lifetime rule. This operation can be described as a surprise attack, catching people off guard, and is a masterstroke indeed. Xi Jinping's philosophy of governance is chaotic and confusing, but Xi's philosophy of power struggle is exceptionally clear because power is what Xi cares most about. The theoretical crystallization of Xi's power struggle is the four consciousnesses, namely, the political consciousness, the big-picture consciousness, the core consciousness, and the alignment consciousness. Although it is not a political innovation, it can at least be used as a banner for a power struggle. Xi Jinping's theory of power struggle has also reaped practical fruits: Xi becomes the core of power, and all is decided by Xi alone! As the fifth-generation leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping's inability to rule the country and his skill in disturbing the people have made him inferior. However, Xi's mastery of power and his ability to fight internally have made him conceited, thus he has finally found some psychological balance. However, the Bible says: "He who uses the sword dies by the sword. In the same way, it is clear that: those who use strategy lose in strategy, and those who use power are destroyed by power. This will come true sooner or later because Xi Jinping's motive is for his own selfish desires rather than for the welfare of the Chinese people, no matter whether he uses strategy or power. |
