前段研究了一下COST， 继续观察：
Recent Weakness in Costco (COST) Stock Price
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has indeed experienced notable weakness in late 2025, particularly over the past month. Based on daily closing prices from November 3 to December 8, 2025, the stock peaked around $940 in early November before steadily declining, closing at $887.52 on December 8—a roughly 5.5% drop from its mid-November high and erasing all year-to-date gains for 2025 (down about 2% YTD, in stark contrast to the S&P 500's 17% surge). This 10% dip over the last three months has brought shares near the 52-week low of $871.71, amid a broader downtrend since June, with technical indicators like a death cross (50-day SMA below 200-day SMA), a bearish wedge pattern, and declining on-balance volume signaling ongoing selling pressure.Despite Costco's fundamentally strong business—fiscal 2025 revenue up 8% to around $258 billion (implied from quarterly data), Q4 comparable sales +6.4%, full-year +7.6%, international growth at 8.6%, 89.8% membership renewal rates, and 14% membership fee income growth post-hike—the stock's decline stems from a combination of valuation concerns, slowing momentum, and macroeconomic risks. Below, I'll break down the primary causes based on recent analyses.
Key Reasons for the Decline
Here's a summary of the main factors contributing to the weakness, drawn from investor commentary and market reports:| Reason | Details | Impact on Stock |
|---|---|---|
| High Valuation Relative to Growth | COST trades at ~49x forward earnings (vs. S&P 500's 25x) and 14x book value, leaving little room for error in a low-margin business (gross margins ~11%, operating ~4%). While sales growth is solid (Q4 revenue $86B, +8% YoY), it's not accelerating enough to justify the premium—November's adjusted comp sales slowed to +6.4% from October's +6.8%, signaling a cooling trend amid investor caution on decelerating momentum. | Investors are rotating out of "expensive" defensives like COST into higher-growth names, exacerbating the 10% three-month dip despite consistent earnings beats (e.g., Q4 EPS $5.87). |
| Lack of Near-Term Catalysts | The 2024 membership fee hike (Gold Star +$5, Executive +$10) boosted Q4 fees by 14%, but hikes typically occur every 5.5 years, so no repeat is expected soon. No major international expansion or other big announcements are on the horizon to reaccelerate growth. | Without fresh drivers, the stock lacks the "spark" to break out, especially as peers like Walmart show similar but less premium-priced stability. |
| Macro Pressures and Consumer Spending Fears | Rising inflation and potential tariffs could squeeze merchandise margins, hitting Costco's model of passing savings to customers. Broader consumer slowdown signals from peers (e.g., McDonald's and PepsiCo reporting weaker spending) raise concerns, even for Costco's affluent base—though resilient, it's not immune at current valuations. | Fuels risk-off sentiment; Reddit discussions highlight fears of shrinking discretionary spending in a high-interest-rate environment, contributing to the YTD underperformance. |
