https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/bbs/teatime/749640.html
在上面朝霞满天网友帖子楼下,Q网友提到罗素悖论。
我查了一下,朝网友应该是在讲这个问题
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
和我们前段时间讨论的 罗素悖论,
歌德尔,无门关没有有直接关系。
原题抄在这里
——-
There are three boxes:
a box containing two gold coins,
a box containing two silver coins,
a box containing one gold coin and one silver coin.
Choose a box at random. From this box, withdraw one coin at random.
If that happens to be a gold coin, then what is the probability
that the next coin drawn from the same box is also a gold coin?
一般直觉会认为是½ ,但实际上是2/3。
的确和Monty Hall对应:)
我用刚学到的贝式公式做了一下,
快慢网友引文公式也适用,只不过跟Monty问题
有点小区別,这里先验概率不一样决定了最终结果不一样。