美国联准会(Fed)三月会议纪录显示,决策官员担心通膨放缓进展已停滞,可能要维持利率更高更久,三月通膨数据则印证官员的忧虑,促使市场缩减降息预期;美国前财政部长桑默斯甚至警告,必须认真思考联准会接下来转向升息的风险。会议记录也显示,官员针对放缓缩减资产负债表速度,已接近达成协议。
三月会议记录显示,与会官员提到经济指标显示成长动能强劲,近几个月通膨数据也令人失望,认为应该等到对通膨滑落更有信心时再降息。部分官员更提出一种可能性,若当前百分之五点二五至五点五利率水准对经济的限制比预期还小,可能强化需求动能并带给通膨上升压力。
路透报导,这种逻辑可能成为支持再次升息的论据。
美国十日公布的三月通膨率数据依然高于预期后,今年有决策投票权的里奇蒙联准银行总裁巴尔金表示,最新数据显示通膨可能需要一些时间才能回落。
市场已缩减对联准会今年的降息预期。渣打银行预期今年将降息两次,可能七月启动,巴克莱银行则预估只会降息一次,在九月降息一码。
不过,哈佛大学教授桑默斯接受彭博采访时表示,“必须认真思考Fed下一次利率行动是上调、而非调降的可能性”,这种情况的几率为百分之十五至廿五,“在我看来,六月降息将是危险而令人震惊的错误”,“我们现在不需要降息”。他也说,情势在六月前仍可能改变,几率仍然指向联准会今年降息,但没有市场反映的这么高。
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