美联储态度坚定 本周三会后宣布升息两码几成定局
文章来源: 经济日报 于
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美联准会(Fed)本周举行货币决策会议,预料周三(台北时间周四凌晨2时)会后将宣布升息0.5个百分点(2码),并开始缩减资产负债表,藉更大幅度紧缩货币政策来平抑高涨的通膨和劳动成本,乍似触顶的通膨和劳动市场数据并不会动摇Fed的决心。
美国商务部上周五(29日)公布的最新数据显示,Fed偏好参考的3月个人消费支出(PCE)物价年增6.6%,达到40年来最高;扣掉波动较大的食物和燃料价格,核心PCE则由上月的5.3%略减为5.2%。
同时,另一项报告显示,美国第1季劳动成本大增4.5%,印证Fed认为劳动市场太过紧俏的看法。不过,民间薪资增加5%,转为平稳。
尽管如此,市场对Fed接下来三次会议,每次均升息2码,且会继续升息到年底的看法不变。Fed政策利率期货显示,市场如今重押年底利率会升高到3%至3.25%。
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)资深美国经济研究员杭特(Andrew
Hunter)说,这一些数据“不会阻止Fed升息50个基点,不过倒是印证我们对通膨今年会下降得比Fed目前所料更快的看法”。
不过,这两年来多次错估通膨形势后,Fed主席鲍尔如今反而认为没有什么是理所当然的。他一周前列举一大堆可能导致通膨压力持续上扬的因素,像是俄乌战争、中国大陆最近因疫情启动的封锁可能让供应链问题更加恶化。他说:“我们要看到通膨实际进展。实际的高峰或许在3月,但我们没把握,所以不会这么指望。”
去年物价上涨主要是商品短缺,如今上扬的成本已扩大到各种服务项目,如此一来通膨将持久。雇主为满足强旺的消费需求,必须付出更高工资争取员工,劳动成本上扬下,会让企业进一步调涨售价。
花旗集团经济学家发布报告说:“劳动成本增加得比预期更快,消费者支出又略为增强,Fed本周势必会升息50基点,未来开会也会倾向采取更急进的政策。”
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