金正恩态度大逆转 习近平到底指点了他什么
文章来源: 苹果日报 于
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北韩闪电取消南北韩高层会谈,还威胁"川金会"恐破局,美国学者分析,金正恩此举可能与本月初"习金二会"接受中国国家主席习近平"指点"有关,南韩学者更坦言"北韩经典的中美『走钢索外交』(即利用中美对北韩态度上的矛盾,挑战底线以获取最大利益)又将回归"。
华府智库"战略暨国际研究中心"(CSIS)主任葛莱仪(Bonnie
Glaser)指,中方一向主张北韩应以冻结核武作为美韩结束联合演习的交换,此次金正恩在与习近平两度会面后,突然向美韩军演开刀,葛莱仪评估是受到习近平影响,"可能是习近平提醒金正恩,而金正恩决定跟随。"
"破局可能性不高"
南韩国立外交院教授金贤旭(译音)分析,金正恩藉由把危急局势推到顶点的外交边缘策略,试图改变美国所处的谈判优势地位,而金正恩的改变与近来北韩与中国关系正常化、寻求安全经济援助有关。
美国加州明德大学资深研究员波拉克(Joshua
Pollack)认为,"北韩希望美国改变语调,但至少到目前为止,他们还没听到任何改变。"
但北韩态度逆转并不意味半岛再次冰封,南韩评论认为金正恩可能是要做姿态给国内看,展现自己并不软弱。
分析也认为,川金会最后破局的可能性不高,因为北韩急需放宽制裁以重建国内经济,而且当前川普与文在寅当政所形成的"人和",是北韩走出孤立的最佳时机。
南韩首尔远东研究所军事专家金东烨(译音)称:"北韩绝非想推翻谈判桌"。
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