John Hussman 股市正在反映导致1929年的极端情况

著名的基金经理说，随着看涨的投资者将股票推向1929年极端，股票被准备成一个熊市

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-utlook-1929-bear-market-market-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-5

詹妮弗·索（Jennifer Sor），2024年5月7日

传奇的投资者约翰·侯斯曼（John Hussman）说，股票市场看起来有望从其极端高度下降。
霍斯曼说，股市正在反映导致1929年坠机事故的极端情况。

他以前说，市场崩溃的幅度高达65％，这并不会让他感到惊讶。

传奇投资者约翰·侯赛曼（John Hussman）表示，股票市场的极端牛将要结束，因为过于乐观的投资者将股票推向了近一个世纪的最高估值。

侯赛曼投资信托基金会主席本周对股票发出了另一条看跌警告，在2024年到目前为止，反对股票的实力。标准普尔500指数今年打破了一系列的纪录高点，并且在近年来经历了乏味的几天之后，它恢复了势头。在四月份。

侯斯曼在一份报告中说，但是集会在很大程度上是由于投资者中“某种不耐烦和害怕错过”的驱动 - 市场内部人士看上去“不利”。

他的公司对股票最值得信赖的估值措施，即非金融市值与公司总值的比率，表明标准普尔500指数的价格自1929年以来的最高水平，就在市场倒闭之前的最高水平，达到了89％的峰值。 -槽。

霍斯曼公司预计，根据其公司的内部指标，未来12年的标准普尔500指数将在未来12年内每年下跌9.3％。这是指标有史以来预测的最糟糕的12年表现 - 甚至比1929年的市场内部人士暗示，在接下来的12年中，标准普尔500指数的表现每年每年的债券低6％。

霍斯曼说：“从统计上讲，目前的一组市场状况看起来更像是'一个主要的牛市峰值，比过去一个世纪的其他任何点都可能是'一个主要的牛市峰值，但可能是1929年的山峰。” “这丝毫没有保证，市场将会下降，也不能进一步发展。但是，考虑到极端估值，不利的市场内部设备以及其他数十个聚集在历史上最“顶级”的因素的结合，我们的情况可以避开风险，甚至看跌的前景。”

霍斯曼（Hussman）是2000年和2008年市场崩溃的投资者之一，他避免对股票进行正式预测。尽管如此，他还是对未来股票的前景进行了极端看跌的语气。

以前，他说股票看起来像是“美国财务历史上最极端的投机性泡沫”，并补充说，撞车的撞车事故高达65％，这并不会让他感到惊讶。

个人投资者也开始对股票进行酸味，因为它们权衡了超过预期的通货膨胀，并拨回了今年美联储降低税率的期望。根据AAII的最新投资者情绪调查，只有39％的投资者表示，他们在未来6个月中看涨了股票。

Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-outlook-1929-bear-market-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-5

BY  Jennifer Sor  May 7, 2024

• The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. 
• Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. 
• A market crash as steep as 65% wouldn't surprise him, he's said previously. 

The stock market's extreme bull run is about to come to an end, as overly optimistic investors have driven equities to the most extreme valuations in nearly a century, according to legendary investor John Hussman.

 

The Hussman Investment Trust president sounded another bearish warning on stocks this week, pushing back against the strength in equities so far in 2024. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. 

But the rally has largely been driven by a "certain impatience and fear of missing out" among investors — and market internals are looking "unfavorable,", Hussman said in a note.

His firm's most trusted valuation measure for stocks, which is the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to corporate gross value-added, is showing that the S&P 500 is priced at its most extreme levels since 1929, right before the market collapsed 89% peak-to-trough.

Hussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. That's the worst 12-year performance the metric ever predicted — even worse than in 1929 when market internals suggested that the S&P 500 would underperform Treasury bonds by 6% annually over the following 12 years.

"Statistically, the current set of market conditions looks more 'like' a major bull market peak than any other point in the past century, with the possible exception of the 1929 peak," Hussman said. "That's no assurance that the market will plunge, nor that it can't advance further. Still, given the combination of extreme valuations, unfavorable market internals, and dozens of other factors that cluster among the most 'top-like' in history, we're just fine with a risk-averse, even bearish outlook."

Hussman, who was among the investors who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, has refrained from making an official forecast on stocks. Still, he's cast an extremely bearish tone on the outlook for equities going forward.

Previously, he said that stocks looked like they were in the "most extreme speculative bubble in US financial history," adding that a crash as steep as 65% wouldn't surprise him. 

Individual investors are also starting to sour on stocks as they weigh hotter-than-expected inflation and dial back their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.