欧洲经济可怕下滑的毁灭性原因

这是欧洲经济可怕下滑背后的毁灭性原因

科技革命 2023年7月16日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIC_MyANfCo&ab_channel=TechRevolution

这是欧洲经济可怕下滑背后的毁灭性原因

当前，金融危机迫在眉睫，欧洲各地陷入混乱。 这场危机感觉就像一场愈演愈烈的风暴，希腊、西班牙和意大利等国在借贷方面都遇到了挑战。

他们的经济不稳定并面临负面影响。

在今天的视频中，我们将深入探讨欧洲和法国当前面临的经济挑战。 我们将探讨欧洲债务危机、整个欧洲大陆的经济衰退、影响德国经济的问题以及法国最近的抗议活动。

欧元区连续第二个季度陷入衰退。 尽管经济动态的下降幅度很小——仅占 GDP 的 0.1% 左右——但务实的专家认为这是未来困难时期的开始。

随着外国投资者放弃希腊、意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙债券，新一轮欧元区债务危机可能比看上去更迫近。 与欧元区强国德国相比，希腊、意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙的借贷成本已从 2022 年夏初的高水平小幅下降。

当借款人由于利率上升或经济放缓而无法偿还债务时，可能会发生债务债务危机。 当投资者认为借款人可能违约时，这种情况尤其可能发生。

当前的经济状况使债务危机更有可能发生。 各国央行正在加息以应对通货膨胀，许多国家的通货膨胀率已经很高。

乌克兰战争还导致原材料和食品成本上涨，进一步加剧通胀压力。

随着利率上升和通货膨胀减缓经济增长，政府将发现偿还债务变得更加困难。 这可能会导致一波违约潮，从而对整个全球经济产生连锁反应。

为了降低债务危机的风险，政府和企业需要谨慎管理债务水平，投资于经济增长，并加强金融体系。

当利率超过经济增长率时，保持债务稳定的唯一方法是维持基本预算盈余。 初始债务越高，你就越需要勒紧裤腰带。

高通胀也会压低实际利率，但即使货币当局设法实现通胀稳步下降，利率仍将维持高位，欧元区可能面临主权债务危机重演。

葡萄牙、西班牙、希腊和意大利的情况尤其令人担忧，因为这些国家的政府目前支付的十年期贷款金额从百分之三以上到近百分之四不等。

欧洲今年的夏天可能和去年一样炎热，当时欧洲三分之二的地区面临着过去五个世纪以来最严重的干旱。 天气越热，能源供应问题越尖锐。

政治短视加剧了自然灾害，欧洲已经停止购买俄罗斯煤炭和石油，对俄罗斯的制裁导致天然气供应大幅下降。

总之，由于高利率、低经济增长和能源短缺，欧元区主权债务危机的风险正在增加。 随着欧洲国家对俄罗斯实施制裁，损害其经济，政治短视加剧了这些因素。

虽然在欧盟观察到了影响，但并不限于欧盟内部。 一些经济学家预计经济增长将在未来几个月内开始回升，但将是缓慢且渐进的。经济合作与发展组织已经预测欧元区经济增长将是美国的一半，为0.9%。

此外，预计美国将在未来几个月陷入衰退，因为高利率的影响将逐渐降低，目前 4.9% 的通胀率将降至可控的 2%。

分析人士希望美国经济能够避免严重衰退，且对经济的损害有限。 2012年，欧洲爆发债务危机，导致整个欧洲大陆出现信贷紧缩。 这让美联储感到担忧，担心危机可能蔓延至美国经济。

Here's The Devastating Reason Behind Europe's Economy's TERRIFYING Downfall

Tech Revolution 2023年7月16日 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIC_MyANfCo&ab_channel=TechRevolution

Here's The Devastating Reason Behind Europe's Economy's TERRIFYING Downfall

A financial crisis is currently looming, causing chaos across Europe. This crisis feels like a growing storm as countries like Greece, Spain, and Italy are encountering challenges in borrowing and lending money. 

Their economies are unstable and facing negative impacts. 

In today's video, we'll dive into the current economic challenges that Europe and France are facing. We'll explore the European debt crisis, the economic downturn across the continent, the issues affecting  the German economy, and the recent protests in France.

The Eurozone is in recession for the second quarter in a row. Even while the fall in economic dynamics is tiny - only approximately 0.1 percent of GDP - realistically oriented specialists feel this is the start of difficult times ahead. 

With foreign investors abandoning Greek, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bonds, a new Eurozone debt crisis may be closer than it appears. In comparison to the Eurozone's powerhouse, Germany, borrowing costs in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have fallen marginally from high levels in early summer 2022. 

ebt crises can occur when borrowers are unable to pay their debts due to rising interest rates or economic slowdowns. This is especially likely when investors believe that the borrower is likely to default.

The current economic conditions are making debt crises more likely. Central banks are raising interest rates to combat inflation, which is already high in many countries. 

The war in Ukraine is also causing the cost of raw materials and food to rise, which is further adding to inflationary pressures.

As interest rates rise and inflation slows economic growth, governments will find it more difficult to service their debts. This could lead to a wave of defaults, which would have a ripple effect throughout the global economy.

To reduce the risk of debt crises, governments and businesses need to manage their debt levels carefully, invest in economic growth, and strengthen their financial systems.

When interest rates exceed the growth rate of the economy, the only way to keep debt stable is to run a primary budget surplus. The higher the initial debt, the more you need to tighten your belts.

High inflation also pushes down real interest rates, but even if monetary authorities manage to achieve a steady reduction in inflation, interest rates will remain high and the Eurozone may face a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis.

The situation in Portugal, Spain, Greece, and Italy is particularly concerning, as their governments now pay on ten-year loan sums ranging from more than three percent to almost four percent.

This summer in Europe may be as hot as it was last year when two-thirds of Europe faced the worst drought in the past five centuries. The hotter the weather, the more acute the problem of energy supply.

Natural disasters are being exacerbated by political shortsightedness, as Europe has already stopped buying Russian coal and oil, and sanctions against Russia have led to a significant drop in natural gas supplies.

In short, the risk of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone is increasing due to high-interest rates, low economic growth, and energy shortages. These factors are being worsened by political shortsightedness, as European countries have imposed sanctions on Russia that are harming their economies.

While effects are observed in the EU, it is not limited within. Some economists expect economic growth to start picking up in the next few months, but it will be slow and gradual.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was already predicting that the Eurozone's economic growth to be half of the U.S. 's at 0.9%.

Also, the U.S. is expected to enter into a recession in the coming months as the effects of high-interest rates take their toll and slowly lower the current 4.9% inflation rate to a manageable 2%.

Analysts hope that the U.S. economy will avoid a severe recession and that the damage to the economy will be limited. In 2012, Europe experienced a debt crisis that led to a credit crunch across the continent. This concerned the US Federal Reserve, which was worried that the crisis could spread to the US economy.