尽管目前本地房市潜在供应量处于历史新高，仲量联行研究部主管蔡炎亮博士却不认为房价会因此而下跌，相反的从现在到2015年，每年还能有至少1.8％的涨幅。 他纵观本地房地产市场历来的走势，发现房价很少会因供应量充裕而下调。加上过去几年的人口增长速度比兴建房屋的步伐更快，市场已有足够的积压需求来支持价格。 蔡炎亮在他最新发表的《新加坡住宅市场新供应白皮书》中指出，若按照下来比较缓慢的人口增长来估计，新加坡人口到2015年应该可达到520万，这将足以吸纳2014年和2015年每年将注入市场的5万间私宅和组屋。 这份报告指出根据人口普查数据，我国自2003年以来的人口增长主要是由外来移民带动，其中非居民人口过去十年以每年7％的速度增长，居民人口（公民与永久居民）则每年增长1.9％。 然而在同一时期，市场上的私宅与组屋整体供应量每年却只增加2.1％。这导致住户的平均人数增至去年的4.37人，高于过去十年平均的4.08人，将刺激对新房屋的需求上扬。这也进而推高房价，尤其是在2006/07年和2009/10年，全国私宅价格分别上涨了31％和18％。 蔡博士说，由于需求强劲，发展商在过去几年兴建了更多私宅，自2006年以来每年推出1万2000间，这比从1998年至2005年，每年平均推出6600间高出82％。 尽管如此，即使是在2014/15年每年有约5万间私宅和组屋供应，市场也要到2015年才能取得较为理想的平衡点。由此可见买屋自住者的需求，仍将继续保持强劲。 经济若衰退 房价照样跌 不过，蔡博士昨天在记者会上强调上述预测是基于我国经济到2015年仍保持稳定，如果出现衰退，私宅价格仍然会走下坡。 他指出，根据历来走势，新加坡的私宅价格指数基本上是由市场情绪所主导，自1998年以来出现过两次显著下调，第一次介于2000/01年，第二次则在2007/08年，这两次调整都出现在市场并没有足够供应的情况下。然而，在初始的震荡后，市场很快又恢复原有水平。 询及目前全球经济局势不稳定，将为本地房市带来多大的冲击时，他说：“这将影响房市情绪，造成短期内需求和房价波动，但整体上来说，在这些基本面支撑下，中长期展望保持稳定。” 他指出，如果外来移民继续流入，就算步伐有所放缓，以求保持住户平均人数为4.08人，到了2015年，我国人口也将达到550万。 如果这种情况发生，目前的供应还不足以应付需求，房价因此将更快速地上涨，从现在到2015年，每年的涨幅将达到7.5％。 政府每年仍须注入至少1万6000单位 因此，蔡炎亮指出决策者仍需继续向市场注入供应，以应付需求。 如果外来移民的增长速度放缓，市场每年也需要1万6000至1万7000个单位，这意味着人口年平均增长率为0.8％或在2015年达到520万人。 若人口增长速度为每年平均1.5％，或到2015年达到550万人，那政府就需要为市场注入约2万2000至2万4000个单位。 至于2015年之后的供需情况，蔡博士认为取决于政府移民政策方向。 巴西立盛港榜鹅 供应过多冲击最大 国际产业顾问（IPA）总裁邱瑞荣对房市供应量问题则有不同的见解。他指出目前欧美经济和债务危机重重，本地房屋供应量过剩的情况，对代表大众化私宅的中央区以外（Outside Central Region，简称OCR）的冲击最令人担忧，尤其是在巴西立、盛港和榜鹅。 不过，他说若把代表中档、高档领域和有地私宅都计算在内，私宅价格仍然可能会出现升幅。 Orange Tee研究部董事陈国强认为房市是否会因供过于求而出现调整，主要得看政府的移民政策和人口增长速度，但这个问题很棘手，因为有一部分新加坡人已经对人口增长过快感到不满，而其他基础设施，如地铁网络的扩大还未到位。 “目前对于经济展望，各方都持有不同的意见，但我并不排除全球经济出现衰退的可能性。不过，我们应该不会看到2008/09年的历史重演，因此未来数月，私宅价格应该处于横摆状态。” *lminwen@sph.com.sg 《联合早报》 Housing demand to remain stable, says Jones Lang LaSalle
September 15, 2011 Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), a global property consultancy firm, has
expressed a different view from most analysts who have said that
Singapore will face a housing glut between 2013 and 2015.
“Demand for housing is likely to remain fairly stable and support the
injection of new stock over the next few years,” said Dr Chua Yang
Liang, Research Head of JLL Southeast Asia.
It added that the residential market will not see a correction in
2014 and 2015, even though a large amount of new homes are due for
completion over those two years.
JLL believes that an average of around 50,000 HDB flats and private homes will be available each year in 2014 and 2015.
Dr Chua noted that the housing market will not contract as a result
of new stock. He added that the growth in population over the past few
years has outgrown the rise in physical housing stock. This implies that
the demand backlog is expected to keep prices stable.
JLL employed two different rates of population and immigration growth
to determine the expected state of Singapore’s housing market in 2014
and 2015.
In the first scenario, the group assumes that Singapore’s population
is just 5.2 million by 2015. This implies that the cumulative
residential stock (the total number of houses available for rent and
owner-occupation) cannot meet the total demand in 2014.
Dr Chua noted, however, that supply will be greater than demand in 2015.
As a result, the official property price index is expected to rise by an average of 1.8 percent a year until 2015.
In the second scenario, JLL assumes a total population of 5.5 million
in Singapore by 2015. This suggests that the new housing stock may be
insufficient in both 2014 and 2015 to meet annual residential demand.
As a result, property prices could rise by an average of 7.5 percent per year from 2011 to 2015.
Source : PropertyGuru – 14 Sep 2011
Will the Upcoming Supply Cause Property Prices to Fall?
By Mr. Propwise
In an interesting and contrarian report, Dr. Chua Yang Liang of Jones Lang Lasalle argues that the surge in upcoming supply will not cause property prices to fall. In this article I will sum up his arguments and add some of my own thoughts. Recently several property analysts have been arguing that a correction in the Singapore residential market is in the pipeline in 2014/2015 due to the large stock of housing completions during that period (~50,000 public + private unit per year), which is 2.5 times the average completed since 2001.
Dr. Chua believes that residential property prices will not fall despite this large increase in supply for the following three reasons:
1. The Singapore residential market has not corrected based on supply alone in the last decade
Dr. Chua calculates two metrics he terms as the short-term and long-term balance of housing stock. The short-term balance compares his estimated household demand formation (e.g. from marriages and immigration) with the housing completions based on URA and HDB data. The long-term balance is the cumulative sum of the short term balance over time.
He argues that if you compare this short and long term balance of housing stock with the URA Property Price Index (PPI), you will find that the PPI is mainly sentiment and not supply-driven. For example, the two major corrections in the PPI since 1998 were in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008, which happened due to external shocks and despite the housing balances indicating a stock shortage.
2. Immigration is likely to continue and support the demand for upcoming new supply
Dr. Chua believes that the recently mentioned population target of 5.5 million by 2050 is too low, as it suggests a growth rate of just 0.2% per year over the next 40 years, which will be insufficient to support economic growth.
He thinks in the low case we should use the 6.5 million target by 2050 (which was used by URA in the 2000 Concept Plan), and in the high case we could hit 5.5 million by 2015 (which would involve keeping the resident population growth rate at the same pace as 2010 while slightly lowering the foreign population growth rate).
This continued growth in population will thus create new demand for the upcoming supply.
3. “Residual demand” backlog is likely to keep prices stable
The population has increased from 4.02 million people in 2000 to 5.1 million in 2010, a 2.4% annual compounded increase (with the nonresident population growing at 5.6% compounded). But the total housing stock (private and public) has only grown from 956,275 to 1,158,885, or a 1.9% annual compounded increase.
The net effect is that the size of the average national household (Dr. Chua uses total population divided by total housing stock excluding worker and student dormitory housing, which is different from the Census
definition) has increased from 4.21 people in 2000 to 4.37 people in 2010.
Dr. Chua believes that there has in effect been a “backlog” of demand created by the inability of supply to catch up with rising demand over the past decade, and thus the upcoming supply (together with immigration) will merely result in a relieving of this backlog and a balancing of long term supply and demand, with the average household size falling back to its long term average of 4.08 with a population
of 5.5 million by 2015.
The large upcoming supply will thus not crash the market but instead help to correct the longer term shortage of housing, and Dr. Chua forecasts that the PPI will still record an average growth of 1.8% till 2015 (based on a population growth target of 6.5 million by 2050). If the population increases to 5.5 million
by 2015, Dr. Chua forecasts a continuing deficit in housing stock, thus pushing up prices by 7.5% per year.
Dr. Chua’s bottomline is that no matter what the immigration levels are, we will not see a dip in the PPI (barring an external shock).
He also recommends that policymakers continue to release land to support a supply of 16,000 to 24,000 housing units per year. My thoughts on Dr. Chua’s arguments I think Dr. Chua’s “residual demand” argument is interesting and introduces the notion of a long term demand backlog caused by the inability of supply to catch up with our population growth over the last decade (mainly driven by immigration). I’m not sure, however, about his forecast of a steadily rising PPI.
First, while the upcoming supply may serve to balance out the demand backlog in the long term, I think that in the short term there can still be a serious case of indigestion by a large amount of supply coming onto the market over a short time period.
Second, Dr. Chua takes the current price levels as fair and then forecasts the matching of supply and demand going forward. Could the current price levels already reflect a severe supply shortage situation, and correct to “fairer” levels when the new supply comes online? Markets are made at the margin, and prices are determined when marginal demand meets marginal supply.
Thirdly, there could also be different outcomes for different segments of the market. For example, the rental market for shoebox units is predicated on the continuing inflow of professional immigrants, which will be affected if this does not happen.
Fourthly, as Dr. Chua points out himself, in the short term the PPI is largely driven by sentiment and not by movements in supply. We could potentially see external shocks coming from a Developed world recession,
European crisis etc., which would impact Singapore’s open economy negatively.
At the same time, many international investors are also starting to see Singapore and the Singapore Dollar in particular as a “safe haven”. This could lead to foreigners continuing to support the high end market, as
we’ve seen in Hong Kong with the influx of Chinese buyers. With so much uncertainty in the markets, I
believe investors should adopt a cautious attitude, but be on the lookout for opportunities – as we saw during the last Global Financial Crisis, the window for buying low can come and go quickly!
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