Your underlying assumption is polling samples are accurate. However, polling samples can be biased, for example, those republicans who don't want to vote for T but for H don't want to talk to pollsters, while MAMGs are more willing to answer polls. Another example is the under-estimate of new registered voters (most of them are young) who are leaning toward Harris. In swinging states with a very fine margin, those biases can make polls incorrect.
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the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
晴天好好心情 发表评论于 2024-11-04 08:54:35
Your underlying assumption is polling samples are accurate. However, polling samples can be biased, for example, those republicans who don't want to vote for Trump but for Harris don't want to talk to pollsters, while MAMGs are more willing to answer polls. Another example is the under-estimate of new registered voters (most of them are young) who are leaning toward Harris. In swinging states with a very fine margin, those biases can make polls incorrect.
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the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
我是大海 发表评论于 2024-11-04 08:41:29
Voted last week. Go Harris!
xiaoxiao雨 发表评论于 2024-11-04 07:44:37
the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
楼下说新增首投族大都支持民主党不靠谱的去看新闻。There are signs of an influx of new female Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and new male Republican voters in Arizona, two of the most important swing states. emale Democrats dominate new voter numbers from Pennsylvania。宾州女性首投族这次将会建奇功，她们大都登记为民主党。这是早投实实在在的数据不是民调或估计。
