有关特斯拉最近发生的多起事件,尤其是在上海车展中的事件,引起的中国全媒体,从中央政府级别开始的讨伐,最后虽然有很多阴谋论,同时车辆数据发布后,也并没有可以证明特斯拉车的质量问题,但是在中国市场上,特斯拉受到不少的影响,这个就如同当年韩国三星等遇到的遭遇一样。
![中國軍方傳禁特斯拉?馬斯克回應](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/7.MQhyYQ5al682BL32PRSw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY3MC44/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/N6KOhtF1U4ilvMohyZ025g--~B/aD01NTk7dz04MDA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/ko/nownews.com/26e89f089e9a304bb590064b151e80e8)
如果说各路的总结都看过之后,我还有点遗憾,那就是还不够全面,现在已经过去了几乎两周,我也来谈谈特斯拉吧。
1. 产业链建设
这个是2019年中国政府批准特斯拉独资设厂的首要因素,要知道中国在加入WTO后,几乎所有的行业都收到跨国企业的威胁,但是在很多的行业都能够在过去的20年之内,实现进口替代(不一定是全面,但是是大部分飞核心部件),唯独汽车行业,中国尽管自己的企业众多,但是真正有比较大销量和影响力的还是合资品牌,就是说汽车行业不但没有实现进口替代,而且长期缺乏核心技术,那种以市场换技术的打法,在汽车行业不灵了。
2018年左右,中国还在选择电动车,氢能源车,油电混合动力车的方向上犹豫不决,但是2019年中国政府已经决定要集中精力,在电动车方向上全面发力,准备弯道超车,而其中一个重要的决定就是引进特斯拉,通过给特斯拉一个短期的市场利好,而换取中国电动车产业链的全面提升和完善,这个就如果当年的鸿海把苹果手机的供应链带到大陆,才是后来中国国产手机品牌的全面爆发,是同样的道理。
![特斯拉产业链分析系列1 日前,根据某证券一研究报告,我们梳理了全球著名的纯电动车制造商特斯拉的超豪华供应链,我们发现,在动力总成系统、电驱系统、...](https://xqimg.imedao.com/16f893efe828f6d3fefaa00b.jpg!800.jpg)
2. 品牌打压
特斯拉既有技术,又有品牌,而且有强大市场影响力,现在利用中国的制造业优势,产量上也有优势,本来以为特斯拉不会放下身段,去和中国的国产电动车品牌竞争中端电动车市场,但是人算不如天算,结果发现特斯拉的狼性远比想象的要厉害,到了中国市场,不断降价,结果是特斯拉的价格居然比国产电动车的新秀还要便宜,这个算是一个意外,也是中国多家电动车厂商不得不对特斯拉下黑手的原因。
![首次成为英国最畅销汽车,特斯拉Model 3创造历史?_易车](https://image.bitautoimg.com/appimage-1060-w1/mapi/media/2020/05/06/5e90c1c4c5e049b080db6016e37bf57a.jpeg)
3. 强制技术转让
如果大家对于中国高铁,中国核电的发展有所了解,就会知道那个都是中国所谓的“逆向开发”的典范,其实就是美国(包括其它发达国家)经常提到的”强制技术转让“,中国号称是”以技术换市场“,但是那些步骤中都是以合资为前提,现在特斯拉的独资身份,给这种中国特色带来了不少麻烦,但是特斯拉的人才培养对于技术的发散肯定是不会断绝的,现在就是在最后如何把关键技术从特斯拉的虎口中拔出来,还是有一定难度。
现在有个不同的风向,大力拔高LIDAR激光雷达技术,贬低特斯拉的摄像头+普通雷达的技术,可能也是为了从另外一个方向来打压特斯拉,并且可能影响特斯拉的技术转移的未来决策。
![中国强制技术转让”论是如何被炮制出来的-丹尼尔·格劳斯-观察者网](data:image/jpeg;base64,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)
4. 星链计划,落地中国
如果说SPACEX的火箭技术,尤其是火箭回收技术是中国大陆觊觎已久的,但是无法得到,最近STARLINK星链计划已经开始在美国多地实际落地,并且效果不错,这个对于中国政府是一个巨大的心病,尽管马斯克一再保证星链计划不会对中国大陆地区开放,但是毕竟中国有巨大的市场和需求(民间希望突破信息高墙的需求),不把特斯拉好好收拾一下,以后如何才能管理好那个科技狂人。
![马斯克要发4.2万颗卫星为何中国版“星链”迫在眉睫- 科学探索- cnBeta.COM](https://static.cnbetacdn.com/article/2020/0316/c037d67d9291b88.jpg)
5. 国安警告
国安是一张几乎所有国家政府都最容易打的牌,美国以国安为理由,封杀了一大堆的中国公司,包括华为,中兴等等,也让中国很多企业在美国市场无法立足,特斯拉虽然是中国政府邀请去的,但是用国安这个大帽子来压一压,还是一个非常有效的办法,这个也会让特斯拉遇到很多的隐形阻力。
![美放宽旅行限制中国学生可赴美;人口危机加剧中共不提人口数据; 无惧国安法港支联会申请六四集会;防千人计划日收紧科研项目披露要求;特斯拉维权女入场证曝光为竞争对手碰瓷?8am【希望之声TV】 - 禁闻网](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/XFPPGfkUfYc/maxresdefault.jpg)
6. 碳中和技术,储能技术Megapack,新能源市场
马斯克的特斯拉,不只是电动车,它的大规模电池储能技术也是非常领先的,Megapack“将成为储能业务的一个主要增长点”,储能部署预计将继续快速扩张。2021年的需求将超过预定的供应,生产将继续增长,以满足“到2023年及以后全球范围内前所未有的需求”。特斯拉的订单“到2023年将以数十亿瓦时的规模迅速增加”,而且在“全球许多地方”,大规模的太阳能+储能模式将比传统的化石燃料发电更具成本效益。随着成本继续下降,现有的发电模式和新化石燃料发电将进一步被取代。这个也是中国最近提出的碳中和技术中的一个重要目标.
![苹果建太阳能发电厂或将使用特斯拉Megapack电池- 知乎](https://pic2.zhimg.com/v2-39cb2a488c502e8eb419b9e9e892b271_b.jpg)
从Tesla电动车技术和市场,延申到SpaceX,StarLink,Megapack,这个是一个全系列的产业,而且在新能源领域和航天领域都已经形成了闭环,中国可以说是从政府到民间都有取而代之的想法,不过不是一时半会能做到的。
我个人对于特斯拉在中国未来2到8年的看法是
从积极建设,到适度打压,强迫技术转让,最后目标是全面中国国产替代。
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