How does one calculate the real GDP growth rate?
In the U.S., the growth rate that the BEA reports is a quarter-on-quarter growth rate, which is the growth in real GDP from one quarter to the next, expressed as a percentage. The growth rate is expressed on an annual basis, so there are two steps to the calculation:
Step 1
First, we find the growth rate in real GDP on a quarterly basis, which is a straightforward percentage calculation that relates the change in GDP during the most recent quarter to the level of GDP in the quarter that preceded it:
g-quarterly (quarter on quarter GDP growth rate) = (GDPQ - GPPQ-1) / GPPQ-1
Where GDPQ refers to the level of GDP in quarter Q and GDPQ-1 is GDP in the previous quarter, Q-1.
Step 2
Let's refer to the rate we obtained in step 1 as g(quarterly) (sort of like the men's magazine). Remember, it's a quarterly rate and we're looking for an annual rate, so we annualize it using the following formula:
g-Annual = (1 + g-quarterly)^4 - 1
The annual rate is equivalent to the growth rate over a year if GDP kept growing at the same quarterly rate for three more quarters (or the same average rate).
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent.
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在河边 发表评论于 2022-04-29 15:50:23
@Deepspace_01 发表评论于 2022-04-29 15:29:42
GDP是负值也是扯淡。那是把通胀和GDP简单加减法了。墙国公布GDP时啥时考虑通胀了?
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你是认真的乱喷还是认真的开玩笑?
GDP数据本身有实际增长率与名义增长率两种,实际增长率是去除通胀因素后的,名义增长率是包括通胀因素的;通常报道里常说的GDP增长率是实际增长率,这次美国公布的-1.4%是实际增长率,不过不是一年的平均值,而是季度数据年化后的年增长率,更能说明季度的走势。
中国公布的也是实际增长率(名义增长率也公布有,很少引用与报道)。
如果不懂就别胡说。