美国对伊朗又祭出一黑招!可以分裂他们
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《伊索寓言》的“北风与太阳”家喻户晓,但要在现实世界活用当中道理却非易事。美国一直试图号召国际社会发起制裁行动,将伊朗回教什叶派政权拖垮,惟多年来收效甚微。寓言故事中北风愈是用力吹,旅人愈把身上斗篷抱紧;现实世界中,美帝制裁力度愈猛烈,反效果愈大,伊朗全国上下反在患难中更团结,暂搁分歧共抗美帝。
随着伊朗核问题终极和解方案于一五年达成,针对伊朗的制裁逐步撤销,伊朗经济随之好转,以一六年三月至一七年三月计,国内生产总值录得双位数的高速增长,这几乎全部归功于伊朗脱离制裁罗网、得以重新向海外出口石油,连带非石油经济领域也开始复苏。
然而,根据伊朗官方数据,一七财政年度该国失业率仍达百分之十二点四,比上一个财年还要高百分之一点四,青年失业率更接近百分之三十。经济高增长与高失业率并存,令德黑兰政府十分头痛,伊朗中下阶层本来对挣脱制裁过上美好生活无限憧憬,讵料石油经济重回正轨带来的下渗效应“弱过药煲”,民众期望愈大失望愈大,伊朗岁末年初的大规模示威潮矛头,便直指伊朗什叶派管治阶层。
无论特朗普威胁退出核协议是否虚晃一招,这在客观上却提醒伊朗民众,脱离制裁后获得的好处全落入特权阶层手中。特朗普政府利用伊朗民间被期望落差点燃之怒火,向伊朗什叶派当权者施压,这与寓言中太阳以热力逼旅人脱下斗篷的策略相若。目前之势,分属改革派的总统鲁哈尼要不联同当政者以强硬手段压住民怨,要不主动“认衰”,放弃连任,为当前局面负责到底。无论是哪一结果,形势都按照“华府于伊朗内部制造矛盾”的剧本发展。
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