软禁?外逃?王岐山神隐多日后的四大传闻
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适中字型较大字型王岐山被爆出贪污丑闻之后甚少现身。(数据图片)
逃亡美国的中国富商郭文贵在指控中纪委书记王岐山是贪官、裸官后,又在网上公布了王岐山家人在美国拥有的14座别墅的资料。中国官方未曾置评,王岐山继续神隐,对其行踪有四大传闻:最可信的是因病入住北京医院,最不靠谱的是乘私人飞机外逃,最正面的是在福建秘密督办大案,最负面的是在北京被软禁。不管孰真孰假,最受瞩目的是,习近平会调查王岐山吗?王岐山的仕途何去何从?
王岐山的前途取决于两个因素:一是郭文贵提供的证据的可靠程度;二是中共新老领导人对王岐山的信任度、反感度。证据如果纯属捏造,郭文贵自然会如中共官媒所警告的「很快就会被戴上手铐送上飞往中国的航班」。证据如果可靠或真假掺杂,结果就取决于中共高层的博弈。
正因为事涉中共高层权斗,郭文贵的指控只要不是纯属捏造,不论几分真几分假,对王岐山的冲击几乎是一样的,必然牵动新老权贵的博弈,结局大致有三:在十九大之前下台,可能性占两成;在十九大留任常委,可能性占三成;平安度过任期的最后几个月,到十九大依「七上八下」的惯例卸任,可能性占五成。
中共高层近年的权斗多被指向习近平与江泽民之争。一方面,习近平、王岐山被视为盟友,习获封核心,王藉反贪替习立威是功不可没,甚至有功高震主之说。另一方面,江泽民在党政军的势力在反贪风暴中广受整肃,甚至江泽民、曾庆红直系家人的权利都受损。而郭文贵在爆料时盛赞江、曾,引发郭的后台是江、曾之猜测。由此观之,王岐山的前途,将取决于习、江的较量、妥协程度。
王岐山因反贪已成中共政坛公敌,欲除之而后快的大有人在。新老权贵自然不愿坐失郭文贵爆料的时机,首选是连手置王岐山于死地,逼他在中共十九大之前下台。但是,习近平不见得会如此挥泪斩将,毕竟,王岐山不是平庸的马谡。一旦王岐山提前下台,习近平将失去一大臂助,十九大及其后的权力部署都会被打乱,核心地位会受到更多威胁。(节录,全文将于明日苹果论坛刊出)
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