统计1994年以来一月最后一天和二月第一天,发现前者平均涨0.39%, 后者平均涨0.57%。两天累计平均涨0.96%。SP今天收1794,按以上的平均,二月三日收盘是1811,碰巧是50天均线。
结论:在周末没有突发消息的情况下,历史的时间惯性有望让反弹多走一步。这以后,几个凶日陆续在二月登台,还要研究细节。
Year |
Jan last |
Feb 1st |
1994 |
0.69% |
-0.50% |
1995 |
0.38% |
-0.03% |
1996 |
1.03% |
0.38% |
1997 |
-0.10% |
0.29% |
1998 |
0.05% |
1.66% |
1999 |
0.76% |
-0.58% |
2000 |
2.71% |
0.99% |
2001 |
-0.56% |
0.66% |
2002 |
1.17% |
-0.47% |
2003 |
1.93% |
0.19% |
2004 |
0.00% |
0.43% |
2005 |
0.63% |
0.63% |
2006 |
-0.73% |
0.70% |
2007 |
0.67% |
0.60% |
2008 |
1.82% |
1.61% |
2009 |
-2.03% |
-0.31% |
2010 |
-1.08% |
1.56% |
2011 |
0.75% |
1.60% |
2012 |
-0.04% |
0.88% |
2013 |
-0.25% |
1.03% |
average |
0.39% |
0.57% |
std |
1.09% |
0.72% |
|